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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (XNAS:CAKE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CAKE
Name:
THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED (XNAS:CAKE)
Sector:
4.28M
Industry:
Restaurants
CEO:
Mr. David Overton
Total Employees:
45,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 245.94% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED(CAKE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESTAURANTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
30.9
One Month Price Target:
$31.14
Six Month Price Target :
$32.37
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$33.84
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$30.69
Price Upper limit ($) :
$31.14
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$28.24
This week:
$24.95
This month :
$19.
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.54B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
52.23M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.34%
-28.07%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.25
$37.60
$18.55
$24.20
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.76
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.56
$26.02
$27.24
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CAKE
Sharpe Ratio:
0.98%
Comparison:
CAKE, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -40.79% lower than the industry
& is -57.18% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CAKE
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.25%
Monthly returns:
1.00%
Yearly returns:
16.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -25.05% below industry average
Classification:
CAKE, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.29
Statistical test of Returns:
CAKE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.22%
Weekly Volatility:
9.43%
Monthly Volatility:
18.86%
Yearly Volatility:
65.35%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.94%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -54.01% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.61%
Weekly VaR:
-19.26%
Monthly VaR:
-38.52%
How Much Can the price of
CAKE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$20.55
This translates to price declining to:
$4.64
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CAKE is a 171.86% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 132.90% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 20.78% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CAKE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.42
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.901
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.274
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.25
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.114
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.285
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.643
Beta is -13.86% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.354
Beta is 4.53% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.09%
Sustainable growth rate is -43.72% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.008
Alpha is -123.38% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -53% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CAKE
Equity cost of capital:
0.128
Equity cost of capital is 3.38% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.27%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.52%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.41%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.41%
WACC is 14.74% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$59.24
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.54
Annual revenue growth rate is -32.76% below industry average
EPS:
$1.45
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-29.64%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -963.94% lower than the Restaurants industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.57
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -69.56%
Equity growth rate per share is 619.11% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$31.94
EBITDA per share
$3.66
Valuation Analysis Today of
CAKE
P/E Ratio:
18.63
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
35.32
P/E ratio is -47.26% lower than main peers & is -21.25% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $34.31
CAKE is -9.93% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $8.36
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.42
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.52
Price to sales ratio is -84.01% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.54
Price to free cash flow: 12.01
Price to free cash flow ratio is -69.26% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-34.12%
Net income growth rate is -119.60% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 3.20%
Previous Dividend: $0.27
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.27
Previous Dividend: $0.99
Expected next dividend best case: $0.48
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.06
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.33
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -12.50%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 24/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-10--$0.27
2019-11-08--$0.36
--$0.00
2020-03-06--$0.36
--$0.00
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is 449.12% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
469.45%
Net debt to equity ratio:
458.59%
Debt to assets ratio:
60.57%
Net debt to assets ratio:
59.17%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -61.57% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
20.17
Interest coverage ratio is 14.10% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
340.25%
Annual debt growth is 815% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.565
Statistical significance of correlation:
CAKE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is 9.25% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.04
Kurtosis
6.558
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.272
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CAKE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
162%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
3.29%
Operating profit margin is -65.00% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
162%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.72%
Effective tax rate is -95.87% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
25.80%
Return on equity (ROE) is 7960.41% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.33%
Return on assets (ROA) is -76.55% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.5x
Current Ratio:
0.62
Current ratio is -44.99% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-11.8
Cash conversion cycle is -135.49% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 24.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.02%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
67.6K
Each employee generates -40% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
4.2K
Each employee generates -84% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
2.0K
Each employee generates -86% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.1K
Each employee generates -96% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
52.1K
Each employee generates -96% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CAKE
ALLBIRDS, INC. (XNAS:BIRD)
STITCH FIX, INC. (XNAS:SFIX)
PROTERRA INC (XNAS:PTRA)
MONRO, INC. (XNAS:MNRO)
Franchise Group, Inc. (XNAS:FRG)
BLOOMIN' BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:BLMN)
JACK IN THE BOX INC. (XNAS:JACK)
DAVE & BUSTER'S ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (XNAS:PLAY)
XPEL, INC. (XNAS:XPEL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�63%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/29/22
Revenue:
3.09B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.84B
1.25B
-
190.83M
190.83M
-
919.19M
1.11B
-
9.47M
89.15M
190.95M
101.80M
91.67M
92.33M
662.00K
91.67M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
21.51M
Differed Income Tax :
3.87M
Stock Based Compensation :
5.52M
Change in Working Capital :
- 20692.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 29246.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
149.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
33.51M
Investments in PP&E:
- 29093.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/29/22
2022
Q1
183.56M
-
183.56M
103.34M
46.68M
33.74M
367.32M
1.99B
-
-
-
-
149.46M
2.39B
-
2.75B
61.74M
144.97M
-
185.51M
202.22M
594.44M
1.67B
135.91M
1.80B
-
2.40B
1.06M
1.19B
- 32.0K
- 838037.00K
March 29, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.95B
355.33M
2.75B
-
1.81B
1.6B
-
461.00K
- 28632.00K
-
-
- 3938.00K
-
- 7104.00K
- 11042.00K
91.00K
- 6071.00K
183.56M
189.63M
33.51M
- 29232.00K
4.28M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CAKE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$34.91
$38.23
$41.87
$45.85
$50.21