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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Carlyle Group Inc. (XNAS:CG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CG
Name:
THE CARLYLE GROUP INC. (XNAS:CG)
Sector:
- 384000.00K
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Mr. Kewsong Lee
Total Employees:
1,850
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -225.30% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE CARLYLE GROUP INC.(CG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.26
One Month Price Target:
$32.56
Six Month Price Target :
$34.05
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$35.85
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$32.12
Price Upper limit ($) :
$32.43
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$30.38
This week:
$28.05
This month :
$23.85
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
11.44B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
361.32M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.98%
-21.2%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.99
$36.98
$23.53
$27.54
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.68
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.82
$28.83
$29.70
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CG
Sharpe Ratio:
1.47%
Comparison:
CG, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 83.25% higher than the industry
& is -35.35% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CG
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.26%
Monthly returns:
1.02%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 33.40% above industry average
Classification:
CG, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.99
Statistical test of Returns:
CG has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.86%
Weekly Volatility:
6.40%
Monthly Volatility:
12.81%
Yearly Volatility:
44.36%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.67%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.73% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.83%
Weekly VaR:
-13.04%
Monthly VaR:
-26.07%
How Much Can the price of
CG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-90.32%
This translates to price declining to:
$25.01
This translates to price declining to:
$3.12
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CG is a 84.01% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 57.64% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 10.19% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.66
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.95
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.343
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.541
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.117
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.869
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.951
Beta is 74.15% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -2.29% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
58.89%
Sustainable growth rate is 108.91% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.022
Alpha is -59.80% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -143% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CG
Equity cost of capital:
0.145
Equity cost of capital is -1.80% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.74%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$17.77
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.83
Annual revenue growth rate is -129.16% below industry average
EPS:
$7.37
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
39.05%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 40.60% higher than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.62
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -80.97%
Equity growth rate per share is -483.16% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$11.74
Valuation Analysis Today of
CG
P/E Ratio:
5.88
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
22.28
P/E ratio is -73.62% lower than main peers & is -63.61% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $119.01
CG is -72.89% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.83
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $8.09
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.82
Price to sales ratio is -73.51% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.83
Price to free cash flow: 8.91
Price to free cash flow ratio is -14.13% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
647.45%
Net income growth rate is 345.35% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.01%
Dividend yeild: 3.33%
Previous Dividend: $0.33
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.33
Previous Dividend: $1.08
Expected next dividend best case: $0.35
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.30
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.26
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.06%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 17/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/10/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-09--$0.33
2021-11-08--$0.25
2021-05-10--$0.25
2022-02-14--$0.25
2021-08-09--$0.25
2021-02-12--$0.25
Dividend growth rate is -80.80% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
272.42%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-20.30%
Debt to assets ratio:
73.15%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.94%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 39.95% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
18.73
Interest coverage ratio is -68.50% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
5.62%
Annual debt growth is -181% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.739
Statistical significance of correlation:
CG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is 28.32% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.025
Kurtosis
7.874
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.307
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
45.86%
Operating profit margin is -2.51% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
24.39%
Effective tax rate is -0.13% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
46.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is 85.18% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
13.69%
Return on assets (ROA) is 134.53% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
3.7x
Current Ratio:
18.56
Current ratio is 383.88% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.33%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
3.5M
Each employee generates 150% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
2.3M
Each employee generates -402% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
1.6M
Each employee generates -230% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 207.6K
Each employee generates 73% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
531.2K
Each employee generates 73% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CG
HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INCORPORATED (XNAS:HBAN)
ACGLP
ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD. (XNAS:ACGL)
MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:MKTX)
Signature Bank (XNAS:SBNY)
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:PFG)
HBANO
Futu Holdings Ltd (XNAS:FUTU)
TRADEWEB MARKETS INC. (XNAS:TW)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�21%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
6.42B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
431.70M
431.70M
-
811.10M
1.24B
240.50M
226.40M
58.00M
4.24B
-
2.97B
4.03B
982.30M
2.97B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
19.40M
Differed Income Tax :
110.90M
Stock Based Compensation :
39.70M
Change in Working Capital :
12.98B
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
12.98B
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 14391400.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 371700.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 12300.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 1951800.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.29B
11.92B
13.21B
506.30M
-
-
13.72B
145.20M
-
820.10M
-
17.40M
-
982.70M
9.00B
21.74B
365.40M
-
-
373.70M
-
739.10M
-
14.05B
14.64B
-
15.38B
3.60M
3.21B
- 283000.0K
3.43B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.24B
6.35B
21.74B
-
-
- 1290200.0K
1.27B
61.40M
- 630700.00K
- 8900.00K
-
- 80400.00K
- 89500.00K
211.90M
33.10M
- 17400.00K
- 1184300.00K
1.29B
2.48B
- 371700.00K
- 12300.00K
- 384000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$36.03
$105.06
$116.74
$129.73
$144.17