_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (XNYS:SAM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SAM
Name:
THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:SAM)
Sector:
- 64773.00K
Industry:
Beverages�Brewers
CEO:
Mr. David Burwick
Total Employees:
2,543
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, INC.(SAM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BEVERAGES�BREWERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
330.8
One Month Price Target:
$332.6
Six Month Price Target :
$341.61
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$352.43
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$329.12
Price Upper limit ($) :
$332.69
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$309.31
This week:
$282.75
This month :
$234.69
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.07B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
12.29M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.65%
-26.02%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$430.55
$384.97
$231.05
$276.63
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$370.14
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$360.41
$291.34
$301.19
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SAM
Sharpe Ratio:
0.71%
Comparison:
SAM, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -8.37% lower than the industry
& is -68.64% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SAM
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.63%
Yearly returns:
7.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 5.22% above industry average
Classification:
SAM, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.62
Statistical test of Returns:
SAM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.18%
Weekly Volatility:
7.11%
Monthly Volatility:
14.22%
Yearly Volatility:
49.24%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.95%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -70.14% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.50%
Weekly VaR:
-14.53%
Monthly VaR:
-29.05%
How Much Can the price of
SAM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$247.00
This translates to price declining to:
$49.62
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SAM is a 105.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 75.67% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 15.68% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SAM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.97
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.788
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.114
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.927
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.787
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.666
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.737
Beta is 32.00% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.923
Beta is 5.46% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.68%
Sustainable growth rate is 0.00% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.022
Alpha is -1.34% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -143% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SAM
Equity cost of capital:
0.098
Equity cost of capital is 3.65% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.35%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.12%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.09%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.09%
WACC is 13.54% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$158.02
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.13
Annual revenue growth rate is 110.53% above the industry average
EPS:
-$4.31
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-49.82%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -1043.93% lower than the Beverages�Brewers industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$5.42
EBITDA per share
$0.23
Valuation Analysis Today of
SAM
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.43
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
SAM is -124.28% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.09
Price to sales ratio is 33.39% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.13
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-84.95%
Net income growth rate is 78.46% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
6.77%
Net debt to equity ratio:
6.02%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.80%
Net debt to assets ratio:
4.27%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -88.12% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
32.75
Interest coverage ratio is -145.05% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-8.78%
Annual debt growth is -19% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 18.83%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.418
Statistical significance of correlation:
SAM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.469
Stock price is -11.05% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.469
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.103
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.191
Kurtosis
15.095
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.306
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SAM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
145%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-3.64%
Operating profit margin is -6891.37% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
145%
Effective Tax Rate:
26.37%
Effective tax rate is 37.31% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-5.38%
Return on equity (ROE) is -273.29% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-3.81%
Return on assets (ROA) is -247.45% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.45
Current ratio is 27.23% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-5.1
Cash conversion cycle is -140.96% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 21.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-5.52%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
763.9K
Each employee generates -3% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.1K
Each employee generates -98% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 20.8K
Each employee generates -193% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 25.5K
Each employee generates 55% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
406.4K
Each employee generates 55% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SAM
Natura & Co Holding SA (XNYS:NTCO)
BUNGE LIMITED (XNYS:BG)
TAP-A
THE J. M. SMUCKER COMPANY (XNYS:SJM)
CAMPBELL SOUP COMPANY (XNYS:CPB)
CHEGG, INC. (XNYS:CHGG)
DARLING INGREDIENTS INC. (XNYS:DAR)
LAMB WESTON HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:LW)
Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV (XNYS:KOF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�25%
Sell�17%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/26/22
Revenue:
1.94B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.22B
721.11M
-
141.38M
738.13M
596.75M
-
738.13M
-
88.00K
74.73M
2.88M
- 70754.00K
- 52966.00K
- 71940.00K
- 18974.00K
- 52966.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
19.63M
Differed Income Tax :
21.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.92M
Change in Working Capital :
- 63729.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 46973.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.10M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 41006.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 23767.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/26/22
2022
Q1
15.77M
-
15.77M
154.16M
162.59M
24.01M
356.53M
719.66M
112.53M
103.61M
-
-
97.67M
1.03B
-
1.39B
112.71M
8.37M
-
-
124.46M
245.53M
66.69M
5.33M
159.54M
-
405.07M
123.00K
369.90M
- 144.0K
-
March 26, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.96B
984.92M
1.39B
-
75.06M
59.3M
-
66.00K
- 23701.00K
- 15475.00K
-
-
-
29.63M
14.16M
-
- 50552.00K
15.77M
66.32M
- 41006.00K
- 23767.00K
- 64773.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SAM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$295.16
$314.46
$335.02
$356.92
$380.26