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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:TBBK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TBBK
Name:
THE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:TBBK)
Sector:
17.37M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Damian Kozlowski
Total Employees:
650
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -678.05% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE BANCORP, INC.(TBBK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
23.59
One Month Price Target:
$23.78
Six Month Price Target :
$24.74
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$25.89
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$23.46
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.8
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.59
This week:
$19.12
This month :
$14.65
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.30B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
56.56M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
27.93%
-30.09%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.86
$28.55
$14.32
$18.63
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$27.14
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.22
$20.02
$20.96
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TBBK
Sharpe Ratio:
4.20%
Comparison:
TBBK, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 241.72% higher than the industry
& ratio is 84.17% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TBBK
Daily returns:
0.19%
Weekly returns:
0.93%
Monthly returns:
3.72%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 309.02% above industry average
Classification:
TBBK, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.32
Statistical test of Returns:
TBBK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.22%
Weekly Volatility:
9.43%
Monthly Volatility:
18.87%
Yearly Volatility:
65.36%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -96.00% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.48%
Weekly VaR:
-18.96%
Monthly VaR:
-37.92%
How Much Can the price of
TBBK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$16.18
This translates to price declining to:
$3.54
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TBBK is a 167.63% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 129.27% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 47.69% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TBBK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.45
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.887
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.255
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.23
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.741
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.061
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.918
Beta is 57.84% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 50.42% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.66%
Sustainable growth rate is 93.45% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.316
Alpha is 2619.37% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2008% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TBBK
Equity cost of capital:
0.131
Equity cost of capital is 34.13% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.09%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.62%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.44%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.44%
WACC is 12.23% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.58
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.05
Annual revenue growth rate is -57.20% below industry average
EPS:
$1.94
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
27.36%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 127.59% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.84
-
-
Debt per share
$2.68
EBITDA per share
$2.82
Valuation Analysis Today of
TBBK
P/E Ratio:
11.97
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.75
P/E ratio is 1.90% higher than main peers & is -3.52% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $24.07
TBBK is -2.01% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.23
Price to sales ratio is -1.20% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.05
Price to free cash flow: 27.97
Price to free cash flow ratio is -47.22% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
22.33%
Net income growth rate is -59.46% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
23.22%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-80.14%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.14%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-7.38%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.72% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
18.71
Interest coverage ratio is 2156.99% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.26%
Annual debt growth is -181% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.424
Statistical significance of correlation:
TBBK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -15.41% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.007
Kurtosis
9.45
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.009
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TBBK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
22.97%
Effective tax rate is 6.60% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
17.42%
Return on equity (ROE) is 46.06% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.60%
Return on assets (ROA) is -30.37% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.42%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
485.8K
Each employee generates 28% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
245.2K
Each employee generates 9% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
174.9K
Each employee generates 24% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
26.7K
Each employee generates -68% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.4M
Each employee generates -68% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TBBK
PROGRESS ACQUISITION UNT (XNAS:PGRWU)
FIRST FOUNDATION INC. (XNAS:FFWM)
WESTAMERICA BANCORPORATION (XNAS:WABC)
CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:CFFN)
DIME COMMUNITY BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:DCOM)
FIRST BUSEY CORPORATION (XNAS:BUSE)
SOUTHSIDE BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:SBSI)
BGC PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:BGCP)
MERCHANTS BANCORP (XNAS:MBIN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
315.76M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
137.44M
137.44M
-
-
-
218.49M
8.52M
3.39M
159.36M
-
113.65M
147.15M
33.80M
113.65M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
894.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.62M
Change in Working Capital :
- 11950.00K
Accounts Receivables:
587.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1143.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
18.39M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1018.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 7418.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
674.23M
907.34M
1.58B
555.90M
-
-
-
16.31M
263.00K
2.09M
907.34M
-
-
926.00M
8.01B
7.08B
-
-
-
-
-
-
151.49M
-
151.49M
6.58B
6.43B
57.16M
268.07M
- 9536.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
652.30M
7.08B
1.81B
151.49M
- 522733.0K
31.65M
- 205650.00K
- 182439.00K
-
84.00K
- 15000.00K
-
251.41M
236.50M
-
72.44M
674.23M
601.78M
18.39M
- 1018.00K
17.37M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TBBK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$30.83
$33.84
$37.13
$40.75
$44.72