_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Andersons, Inc. (XNAS:ANDE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ANDE
Name:
THE ANDERSONS, INC. (XNAS:ANDE)
Sector:
- 1098906.00K
Industry:
Food Distribution
CEO:
Mr. Patrick Bowe
Total Employees:
2,296
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 59.98% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE ANDERSONS, INC.(ANDE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FOOD DISTRIBUTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
36.35
One Month Price Target:
$36.49
Six Month Price Target :
$37.18
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$38.
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$36.18
Price Upper limit ($) :
$36.62
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$33.74
This week:
$30.51
This month :
$24.67
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.16B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
33.86M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.24%
-26.83%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.46
$42.85
$24.24
$29.85
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$41.02
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.82
$31.66
$32.88
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ANDE
Sharpe Ratio:
3.41%
Comparison:
ANDE, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 34.08% higher than the industry
& ratio is 49.72% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ANDE
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.65%
Monthly returns:
2.61%
Yearly returns:
25.81%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 21.26% above industry average
Classification:
ANDE, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.22
Statistical test of Returns:
ANDE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.56%
Weekly Volatility:
7.96%
Monthly Volatility:
15.93%
Yearly Volatility:
55.18%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.40%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -60.78% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.18%
Weekly VaR:
-16.07%
Monthly VaR:
-32.13%
How Much Can the price of
ANDE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$26.57
This translates to price declining to:
$5.45
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ANDE is a 126.78% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 94.28% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -8.87% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ANDE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.68
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.563
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.797
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.467
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.466
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.575
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.112
Beta is -39.18% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.088
Beta is -37.81% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.68%
Sustainable growth rate is 48.48% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.235
Alpha is 54.61% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1497% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ANDE
Equity cost of capital:
0.078
Equity cost of capital is -26.58% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.37%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.97%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.56%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.56%
WACC is -27.71% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$414.44
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.93
Annual revenue growth rate is 379.54% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.78
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
73.80%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 93.17% higher than the Food Distribution industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 7.25%
Equity growth rate per share is -56.37% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$17.80
EBITDA per share
$9.80
Valuation Analysis Today of
ANDE
P/E Ratio:
9.36
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
331.23
P/E ratio is -97.17% lower than main peers & is -72.42% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $94.39
ANDE is -61.49% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $169.29
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.57
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.09
Price to sales ratio is -77.46% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.93
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
111.02%
Net income growth rate is -217.27% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.51%
Dividend yeild: 1.97%
Previous Dividend: $0.18
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.18
Previous Dividend: $0.72
Expected next dividend best case: $0.18
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.18
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.18
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.29%
Expected next dividend payment date: 20/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 22/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-30--$0.18
2021-12-31--$0.18
2021-07-02--$0.18
2022-03-31--$0.18
2021-09-30--$0.18
2021-03-31--$0.18
Dividend growth rate is -98.16% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
55.33%
Net debt to equity ratio:
190.09%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.72%
Net debt to assets ratio:
40.25%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -81.95% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.98
Interest coverage ratio is 177.70% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 25.62%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.325
Statistical significance of correlation:
ANDE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.422
Stock price is -23.09% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.422
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.072
Kurtosis
8.106
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.584
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ANDE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
18%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.26%
Operating profit margin is 123.99% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
18%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.67%
Effective tax rate is -13.92% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.67%
Return on equity (ROE) is -39.72% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.84%
Return on assets (ROA) is 0.53% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.29
Current ratio is -20.38% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
51
Cash conversion cycle is 122.12% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.93%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
6.1M
Each employee generates 213% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
144.5K
Each employee generates 176% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
41.1K
Each employee generates 177% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 478.6K
Each employee generates 419% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
523.6K
Each employee generates 419% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ANDE
JOHN B. SANFILIPPO & SON, INC. (XNAS:JBSS)
Village Farms International, Inc. (XNAS:VFF)
SunOpta Inc. (XNAS:STKL)
VITAL FARMS, INC. (XNAS:VITL)
THE CHEFS' WAREHOUSE, INC. (XNAS:CHEF)
HAILIANG EDUCATION GROUP INC. (XNAS:HLG)
INGLES MARKETS, INCORPORATED (XNAS:IMKTA)
HOUGHTON MIFFLIN HARCOURT COMPANY (XNAS:HMHC)
CHS Inc. (XNAS:CHSCP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
14.03B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
13.42B
609.43M
-
433.16M
433.16M
-
-
433.16M
-
41.56M
165.81M
331.68M
176.27M
94.38M
160.33M
29.94M
94.38M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
34.38M
Differed Income Tax :
- 6947.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.82M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1114499.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 215012.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 277761.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.30M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 1074998.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 23908.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 1333.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
36.38M
-
36.38M
1.05B
1.95B
903.76M
3.94B
824.07M
129.34M
111.06M
-
-
137.77M
1.20B
-
5.14B
741.12M
1.50B
-
384.72M
432.99M
3.06B
602.60M
91.91M
762.95M
-
3.83B
142.00K
701.80M
13.6M
373.53M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
13.86B
1.09B
4.91B
-
2.11B
2.1B
-
320.00K
- 24921.00K
- 207566.00K
-
-
- 6144.00K
1.13B
919.76M
99.00K
- 180063.00K
36.38M
216.44M
- 1074998.00K
- 23908.00K
- 1098906.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ANDE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$38.19
$454.95
$475.63
$497.25
$519.86