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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Allstate Corporation (XNYS:ALL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ALL
Name:
THE ALLSTATE CORPORATION (XNYS:ALL)
Sector:
302.00M
Industry:
Insurance�Property & Casualty
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Wilson
Total Employees:
54,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -1273.99% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE ALLSTATE CORPORATION(ALL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�PROPERTY & CASUALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
121.48
One Month Price Target:
$121.96
Six Month Price Target :
$124.37
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$127.27
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$121.11
Price Upper limit ($) :
$121.94
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$116.51
This week:
$110.37
This month :
$99.27
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
32.84B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
270.30M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.7%
-14.09%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$144.53
$133.95
$98.43
$109.01
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$130.51
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$128.26
$112.42
$114.70
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ALL
Sharpe Ratio:
1.32%
Comparison:
ALL, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -4.58% lower than the industry
& is -42.12% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ALL
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.18%
Monthly returns:
0.71%
Yearly returns:
10.43%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -18.64% below industry average
Classification:
ALL, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
ALL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.01%
Weekly Volatility:
4.49%
Monthly Volatility:
8.98%
Yearly Volatility:
31.11%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.11%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -44.71% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.09%
Weekly VaR:
-9.14%
Monthly VaR:
-18.29%
How Much Can the price of
ALL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-63.34%
This translates to price declining to:
$102.33
This translates to price declining to:
$44.53
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ALL is a 29.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 10.56% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -16.60% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ALL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.71
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.602
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.852
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.555
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.593
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.755
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.989
Beta is -28.32% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.555
Beta is 27.72% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
2.53%
Sustainable growth rate is -78.08% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.005
Alpha is -86.32% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 30% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ALL
Equity cost of capital:
0.080
Equity cost of capital is 15.16% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.27%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.10%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.24%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.24%
WACC is 15.32% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$186.11
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.42
Annual revenue growth rate is -53.30% below industry average
EPS:
$11.86
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
6.02%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -61.48% lower than the Insurance�Property & Casualty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$13.41
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 47.73%
Equity growth rate per share is 5.54% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$29.50
EBITDA per share
$21.01
Valuation Analysis Today of
ALL
P/E Ratio:
43.55
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.8
P/E ratio is 194.35% higher than main peers & is 148.90% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $207.51
ALL is -41.46% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $319.49
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $205.56
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.65
Price to sales ratio is -72.79% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.42
Price to free cash flow: 9.06
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-20.75%
Net income growth rate is -28.91% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.33%
Dividend yeild: 2.73%
Previous Dividend: $0.85
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.85
Previous Dividend: $3.32
Expected next dividend best case: $0.98
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.72
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.69
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 6.29%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.85
2021-11-29--$0.81
2021-06-03--$0.81
2022-02-25--$0.85
2021-08-30--$0.81
2021-03-03--$0.81
Dividend growth rate is -86.35% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
34.35%
Net debt to equity ratio:
29.48%
Debt to assets ratio:
8.21%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.04%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -87.66% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
17.37
Interest coverage ratio is 260.72% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.93%
Annual debt growth is -186% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.693
Statistical significance of correlation:
ALL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.6
Stock price is 15.41% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.6
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.039
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.045
Kurtosis
8.192
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.657
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ALL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.28%
Operating profit margin is -120.30% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
19.32%
Effective tax rate is -3.32% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.66%
Return on equity (ROE) is 92.39% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.74%
Return on assets (ROA) is 144.20% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 20.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
926.4K
Each employee generates -23% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
104.6K
Each employee generates -48% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
67.0K
Each employee generates -53% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.6K
Each employee generates -91% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
82.2K
Each employee generates -91% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ALL
AMP LIMITED (XASX:AMP)
FIRST REPUBLIC BANK (XNYS:FRC)
DISCOVER FINANCIAL SERVICES (XNYS:DFS)
Banco Bradesco SA (XNYS:BBD)
NATWEST GROUP PLC (XNYS:NWG)
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER & CO. (XNYS:AJG)
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (XNYS:MFG)
Itau Unibanco Holding SA (XNYS:ITUB)
MANULIFE FINANCIAL CORP (XNYS:MFC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�17%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�8%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
50.30B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
- 334000.00K
- 334000.00K
-
-
-
-
327.00M
903.00M
5.68B
646.00M
3.64B
4.21B
814.00M
3.64B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
236.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 450000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
432.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 130000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.13B
2.53B
3.66B
8.87B
-
-
12.54B
966.00M
3.50B
-
59.24B
-
- 59236000.00K
4.46B
89.08B
97.15B
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.97B
-
8.38B
82.39B
74.01B
9.00M
54.18B
- 953000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
44.31B
23.21B
97.22B
61.77B
7.97B
6.8B
-
1.11B
981.00M
-
-
- 802000.00K
- 230000.00K
- 14000.00K
- 1046000.00K
-
1.13B
1.13B
1.00M
432.00M
- 130000.00K
302.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ALL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$127.91
$275.47
$288.60
$302.35
$316.75