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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Tfs Financial Corporation (XNAS:TFSL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TFSL
Name:
TFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:TFSL)
Sector:
7.38M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Marc Stefanski
Total Employees:
1,005
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 143.99% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION(TFSL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
14.05
One Month Price Target:
$14.09
Six Month Price Target :
$14.29
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$14.52
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.1
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$13.45
This week:
$12.72
This month :
$11.38
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.89B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
280.58M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.27%
-10.24%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.82
$15.57
$11.28
$12.53
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$15.16
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.90
$12.93
$13.20
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TFSL
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.73%
Comparison:
TFSL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -241.20% lower than the industry
& is -176.10% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TFSL
Daily returns:
-0.03%
Weekly returns:
-0.13%
Monthly returns:
-0.54%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -158.92% below industry average
Classification:
TFSL, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.47
Statistical test of Returns:
TFSL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.05%
Weekly Volatility:
4.59%
Monthly Volatility:
9.19%
Yearly Volatility:
31.83%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.24%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -39.85% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.25%
Weekly VaR:
-9.49%
Monthly VaR:
-18.99%
How Much Can the price of
TFSL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-65.78%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.65
This translates to price declining to:
$4.81
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TFSL is a 34.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 14.82% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -28.08% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TFSL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.50
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.556
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.787
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.201
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.391
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.565
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.934
Beta is -46.67% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -48.33% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.130
Alpha is -1219.62% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -827% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TFSL
Equity cost of capital:
0.066
Equity cost of capital is -32.72% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.65%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.40%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.48%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.48%
WACC is -48.93% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.95
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.25
Annual revenue growth rate is -118.66% below industry average
EPS:
$0.23
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-3.57%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -129.73% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.28
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 49.91%
Equity growth rate per share is 28.90% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$11.33
EBITDA per share
$0.88
Valuation Analysis Today of
TFSL
P/E Ratio:
60.57
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.63
P/E ratio is 287.56% higher than main peers & is 388.11% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $2.85
TFSL is 392.29% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $33.90
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $18.51
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
14.77
Price to sales ratio is 245.32% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.25
Price to free cash flow: 49.32
Price to free cash flow ratio is 220.21% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-5.53%
Net income growth rate is -110.04% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 22.65%
Dividend yeild: 8.03%
Previous Dividend: $0.28
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.28
Previous Dividend: $1.13
Expected next dividend best case: $0.28
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.28
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.44%
Expected next dividend payment date: 19/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/05/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 21/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/07/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-06--$0.28
2021-11-29--$0.28
2021-06-07--$0.28
2022-03-07--$0.28
2021-09-03--$0.28
2021-03-08--$0.28
Dividend growth rate is -98.13% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
181.31%
Net debt to equity ratio:
158.04%
Debt to assets ratio:
22.49%
Net debt to assets ratio:
19.61%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -86.49% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1.76
Interest coverage ratio is 112.35% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-12.21%
Annual debt growth is -3954% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.04%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.465
Statistical significance of correlation:
TFSL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -7.09% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.025
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.03
Kurtosis
4.332
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.079
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TFSL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.52%
Operating profit margin is -81.78% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
18.77%
Effective tax rate is -12.91% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
3.71%
Return on equity (ROE) is -68.93% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.46%
Return on assets (ROA) is -80.05% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.76%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
265.6K
Each employee generates -30% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
245.1K
Each employee generates 8% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
64.7K
Each employee generates -54% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
7.3K
Each employee generates -91% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
466.6K
Each employee generates -91% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TFSL
BLUE OWL CAPITAL INC. (XNYS:OWL)
DIME COMMUNITY BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:DCOMP)
KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (XNYS:KNSL)
BETTER WORLD ACQUISITION UNT (XNAS:BWACU)
UMB Financial Corporation (XNAS:UMBF)
UNITED BANKSHARES, INC. (XNAS:UBSI)
HUDSON EXECUTIVE INVESTMENT UNT (XNAS:HIIIU)
Popular Capital Trust II (XNAS:BPOPM)
ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED (XNAS:ESGR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
266.94M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
115.89M
136.19M
20.29M
-
-
375.02M
139.96M
26.37M
246.32M
-
64.98M
79.99M
15.01M
64.98M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.19M
Differed Income Tax :
3.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.10M
Change in Working Capital :
356.00K
Accounts Receivables:
3.09M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 19130.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
7.66M
Investments in PP&E:
- 281.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 65261.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
408.01M
423.84M
831.85M
30.32M
-
-
-
36.36M
-
8.76M
423.84M
-
-
468.97M
14.60B
14.13B
3.09M
-
-
-
-
-
3.18B
-
3.18B
15.56B
12.38B
3.32M
855.32M
- 50139.0K
944.87M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
-
1.75B
14.13B
847.68M
3.18B
2.8B
57.74M
- 149748.00K
- 157555.00K
- 1329.00K
-
- 321.00K
- 14719.00K
85.95M
69.58M
-
- 80317.00K
408.01M
488.33M
7.66M
- 281.00K
7.38M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TFSL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$13.30
$13.74
$14.20
$14.68
$15.17