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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (XNAS:TXRH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TXRH
Name:
TEXAS ROADHOUSE, INC. (XNAS:TXRH)
Sector:
138.74M
Industry:
Restaurants
CEO:
Mr. Wayne Taylor
Total Employees:
73,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 236.10% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TEXAS ROADHOUSE, INC.(TXRH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESTAURANTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
87.01
One Month Price Target:
$87.49
Six Month Price Target :
$89.88
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$92.75
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$86.64
Price Upper limit ($) :
$87.58
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$81.42
This week:
$74.5
This month :
$62.
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.85B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
66.85M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.7%
-15.3%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$112.95
$100.94
$61.07
$73.08
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$97.03
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$94.46
$76.96
$79.56
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TXRH
Sharpe Ratio:
3.25%
Comparison:
TXRH, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 97.36% higher than the industry
& ratio is 42.71% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TXRH
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.56%
Monthly returns:
2.25%
Yearly returns:
16.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 68.52% above industry average
Classification:
TXRH, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.96
Statistical test of Returns:
TXRH has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.18%
Weekly Volatility:
7.12%
Monthly Volatility:
14.24%
Yearly Volatility:
49.34%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.96%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.76% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.43%
Weekly VaR:
-14.37%
Monthly VaR:
-28.75%
How Much Can the price of
TXRH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$66.01
This translates to price declining to:
$13.05
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TXRH is a 102.91% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 73.83% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -8.80% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TXRH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.98
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.705
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.997
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.599
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.962
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.912
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.376
Beta is -28.65% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.354
Beta is -27.48% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
14.04%
Sustainable growth rate is -53.76% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.171
Alpha is 376.51% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1089% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TXRH
Equity cost of capital:
0.099
Equity cost of capital is -20.52% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.02%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.34%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.27%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.27%
WACC is 68.14% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$54.61
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.62
Annual revenue growth rate is 130.53% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.67
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
12.32%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 259.07% higher than the Restaurants industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.76
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 25.61%
Equity growth rate per share is -364.72% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$11.20
EBITDA per share
$6.40
Valuation Analysis Today of
TXRH
P/E Ratio:
23.78
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
972.91
P/E ratio is -97.56% lower than main peers & is 0.50% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $86.84
TXRH is 0.20% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $649.57
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $84.79
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.59
Price to sales ratio is -51.16% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.62
Price to free cash flow: 23.11
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
59.56%
Net income growth rate is -65.79% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 12.40%
Dividend yeild: 1.98%
Previous Dividend: $0.46
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.46
Previous Dividend: $1.72
Expected next dividend best case: $0.53
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.39
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.40
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 7.69%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/06/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/08/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-07--$0.46
2021-12-07--$0.40
2021-05-18--$0.40
2022-03-08--$0.46
2021-09-07--$0.40
2020-03-10--$0.36
Dividend growth rate is -437.82% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
73.45%
Net debt to equity ratio:
43.85%
Debt to assets ratio:
30.73%
Net debt to assets ratio:
18.35%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -80.50% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
164.6
Interest coverage ratio is 830.98% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
524.50%
Annual debt growth is 1310% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.598
Statistical significance of correlation:
TXRH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is 15.68% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.01
Kurtosis
6.948
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.11
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TXRH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
68%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.38%
Operating profit margin is -10.91% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
68%
Effective Tax Rate:
13.01%
Effective tax rate is -25.10% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
25.14%
Return on equity (ROE) is 7753.92% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.52%
Return on assets (ROA) is -25.91% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
0.79
Current ratio is -30.00% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
1.9
Cash conversion cycle is -94.37% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.56%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
49.8K
Each employee generates -56% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
5.8K
Each employee generates -77% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
3.5K
Each employee generates -75% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.9K
Each employee generates -22% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
27.4K
Each employee generates -22% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TXRH
THE GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER COMPANY (XNAS:GT)
COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR COMPANY (XNAS:COLM)
LIGHT & WONDER, INC. (XNAS:LNW)
REYNOLDS CONSUMER PRODUCTS INC. (XNAS:REYN)
FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP. (XNAS:FOXF)
BRP Inc. (XNAS:DOOO)
THE WENDY'S COMPANY (XNAS:WEN)
DRIVEN BRANDS HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:DRVN)
GLOBAL-E ONLINE LTD (XNAS:GLBE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�17%
Hold�46%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/29/22
Revenue:
3.65B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.03B
620.92M
-
161.06M
161.06M
-
153.87M
314.93M
-
2.60M
129.51M
427.96M
305.76M
256.35M
303.72M
39.51M
256.35M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
33.62M
Differed Income Tax :
2.63M
Stock Based Compensation :
9.12M
Change in Working Capital :
63.88M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 67020.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.19M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
187.77M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 26437.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/29/22
2022
Q1
325.72M
-
325.72M
45.15M
30.04M
25.07M
425.99M
1.79B
144.33M
6.85M
-
-
73.30M
2.01B
-
2.44B
100.09M
23.85M
37.19M
221.48M
196.36M
541.77M
749.07M
97.06M
860.29M
-
1.40B
68.00K
986.96M
-
32.75M
March 29, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.34B
1.02B
2.42B
-
772.91M
447.2M
-
- 46841.00K
- 73278.00K
-
-
- 90871.00K
- 31795.00K
- 1747.00K
- 124413.00K
-
- 9922.00K
325.72M
335.65M
187.77M
- 49029.00K
138.74M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TXRH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$93.21
$1,156.68
$1,232.98
$1,314.32
$1,401.03