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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (XNYS:TPL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TPL
Name:
TEXAS PACIFIC LAND CORPORATION (XNYS:TPL)
Sector:
102.47M
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Mr. Tyler Glover
Total Employees:
92
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -70.82% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TEXAS PACIFIC LAND CORPORATION(TPL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
1888.01
One Month Price Target:
$1909.24
Six Month Price Target :
$2015.41
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$2142.81
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$1880.28
Price Upper limit ($) :
$1903.98
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$1748.77
This week:
$1576.67
This month :
$1265.32
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
14.36B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
7.72M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.14%
-24.89%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$2,533.09
$2,230.51
$1,242.93
$1,545.51
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$2,132.03
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$2,067.44
$1,643.16
$1,708.58
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TPL
Sharpe Ratio:
5.66%
Comparison:
TPL, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 23.25% higher than the industry
& ratio is 148.50% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TPL
Daily returns:
0.22%
Weekly returns:
1.09%
Monthly returns:
4.37%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -14.71% below industry average
Classification:
TPL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.56
Statistical test of Returns:
TPL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.70%
Weekly Volatility:
8.27%
Monthly Volatility:
16.53%
Yearly Volatility:
57.28%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
6.87%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 85.70% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.37%
Weekly VaR:
-16.49%
Monthly VaR:
-32.98%
How Much Can the price of
TPL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1,384.77
This translates to price declining to:
$283.20
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TPL is a 132.78% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 99.42% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -30.74% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TPL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.01
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.058
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.496
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.797
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.829
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.906
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
2.343
Beta is -14.28% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is -0.20% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
28.03%
Sustainable growth rate is -7.10% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.355
Alpha is -20.25% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2258% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TPL
Equity cost of capital:
0.169
Equity cost of capital is -0.16% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
15.13%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$66.58
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
20.03
Annual revenue growth rate is -28.97% below industry average
EPS:
$41.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-5.58%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -117.32% lower than the Oil & Gas E&P industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$37.91
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 170.46%
Equity growth rate per share is 36.60% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$57.23
Valuation Analysis Today of
TPL
P/E Ratio:
38.51
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.49
P/E ratio is 97.61% higher than main peers & is -8.57% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $1,727.48
TPL is 9.29% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
28.36
Price to sales ratio is 476.02% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
20.03
Price to free cash flow: 49.80
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
29.24%
Net income growth rate is -95.89% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.31%
Dividend yeild: 1.67%
Previous Dividend: $23.00
Previous adjusted dividend: $23.00
Previous Dividend: $31.50
Expected next dividend best case: $30.62
Expected next dividend worst case: $15.38
Average dividend payment (long-term): $7.13
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 86.18%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/06/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/08/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-07--$23.00
2021-12-07--$2.75
2021-06-07--$2.75
2022-03-07--$3.00
2021-09-07--$2.75
2021-03-05--$2.75
Dividend growth rate is 108.27% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
15.74%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-69.70%
Debt to assets ratio:
13.60%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-59.23%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -74.47% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-48.78%
Annual debt growth is -102% lower than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.483
Statistical significance of correlation:
TPL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is 22.48% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.021
Kurtosis
7.893
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.089
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TPL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
376%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
82.60%
Operating profit margin is -6104.12% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
376%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.28%
Effective tax rate is 27.75% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
43.67%
Return on equity (ROE) is 412.93% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
37.10%
Return on assets (ROA) is 1513.88% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
8.78
Current ratio is 339.50% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
77.1
Cash conversion cycle is 8.90% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.47%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
5.6M
Each employee generates -30% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
4.8M
Each employee generates 97% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
3.5M
Each employee generates 726% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates -1309% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.4M
Each employee generates -1309% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TPL
Tenaris SA (XNYS:TS)
Cenovus Energy Inc. (XNYS:CVE)
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC. (XNYS:CLR)
SASOL LIMITED (XNYS:SSL)
PEMBINA PIPELINE CORPORATION (XNYS:PBA)
DEVON ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:DVN)
MARATHON OIL CORPORATION (XNYS:MRO)
TARGA RESOURCES CORP. (XNYS:TRGP)
WESTERN GAS EQUITY PARTNERS COM UNT (XNYS:WES)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
514.14M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
29.26M
484.88M
-
58.18M
58.18M
-
2.01M
60.19M
-
-
16.55M
441.92M
424.68M
317.83M
425.38M
107.55M
317.83M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
- 406.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.51M
Change in Working Capital :
4.61M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.13M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
107.74M
Investments in PP&E:
- 5261.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
507.36M
-
507.36M
108.95M
109.08M
2.53M
727.92M
125.79M
-
-
-
-
2.86M
128.65M
-
856.57M
12.64M
-
49.98M
20.30M
49.98M
82.92M
-
2.57M
45.77M
-
128.69M
78.00K
741.91M
- 999.0K
- 13112.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
89.45M
727.88M
856.57M
-
-
- 507356.0K
-
83.00K
- 5178.00K
-
-
- 219.00K
- 23224.00K
-
- 23443.00K
-
79.11M
507.36M
428.24M
107.74M
- 5261.00K
102.47M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TPL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$1,900.75
$2,157.28
$2,448.42
$2,778.85
$3,153.88