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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Tetra Tech, Inc. (XNAS:TTEK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TTEK
Name:
TETRA TECH, INC. (XNAS:TTEK)
Sector:
80.90M
Industry:
Engineering & Construction
CEO:
Mr. Dan Batrack
Total Employees:
21,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -10.97% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TETRA TECH, INC.(TTEK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
132.91
One Month Price Target:
$133.59
Six Month Price Target :
$137.02
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$141.13
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$132.47
Price Upper limit ($) :
$133.59
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$126.23
This week:
$117.98
This month :
$103.05
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.12B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
53.32M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.98%
-13.46%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$163.87
$149.52
$101.95
$116.30
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$144.85
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$141.79
$120.93
$124.03
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TTEK
Sharpe Ratio:
3.29%
Comparison:
TTEK, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -17.12% lower than the industry
& ratio is 44.44% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TTEK
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.45%
Monthly returns:
1.82%
Yearly returns:
37.49%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -41.84% below industry average
Classification:
TTEK, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.39
Statistical test of Returns:
TTEK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.49%
Weekly Volatility:
5.57%
Monthly Volatility:
11.14%
Yearly Volatility:
38.58%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.13%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -94.85% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.02%
Weekly VaR:
-11.23%
Monthly VaR:
-22.47%
How Much Can the price of
TTEK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-77.83%
This translates to price declining to:
$107.89
This translates to price declining to:
$29.47
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TTEK is a 58.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 35.85% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -26.85% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TTEK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.92
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.672
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.951
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.714
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.661
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.839
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.534
Beta is -40.01% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.325
Beta is -30.57% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.10%
Sustainable growth rate is 23.73% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.123
Alpha is -51.11% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 786% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TTEK
Equity cost of capital:
0.095
Equity cost of capital is -22.70% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.34%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.58%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.04%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.04%
WACC is -6.15% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$63.86
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.72
Annual revenue growth rate is -77.19% below industry average
EPS:
$4.70
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
16.42%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 27.93% higher than the Engineering & Construction industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.75
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 68.40%
Equity growth rate per share is 1255.10% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$7.87
EBITDA per share
$6.36
Valuation Analysis Today of
TTEK
P/E Ratio:
27.49
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
37.49
P/E ratio is -26.66% lower than main peers & is -5.20% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $136.30
TTEK is -2.49% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $44.57
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $17.89
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.08
Price to sales ratio is -66.25% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.72
Price to free cash flow: 23.12
Price to free cash flow ratio is -8.19% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
75.09%
Net income growth rate is -1141.35% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.21%
Dividend yeild: 0.62%
Previous Dividend: $0.23
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.23
Previous Dividend: $0.83
Expected next dividend best case: $0.25
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.18
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.60%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-12--$0.23
2021-12-01--$0.20
2021-05-11--$0.20
2022-02-10--$0.20
2021-08-19--$0.20
2021-02-09--$0.17
Dividend growth rate is 87.72% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
33.90%
Net debt to equity ratio:
23.92%
Debt to assets ratio:
15.89%
Net debt to assets ratio:
11.21%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -70.10% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
26.2
Interest coverage ratio is 7.67% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
25.72%
Annual debt growth is -84% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.15%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.555
Statistical significance of correlation:
TTEK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.523
Stock price is 6.12% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.523
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.015
Kurtosis
4.375
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.116
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TTEK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
64%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.20%
Operating profit margin is -166.89% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
64%
Effective Tax Rate:
14.92%
Effective tax rate is -27.95% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
20.71%
Return on equity (ROE) is 76.40% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.71%
Return on assets (ROA) is 135.91% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.31
Current ratio is -53.40% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
70.1
Cash conversion cycle is 48.21% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.27%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
162.1K
Each employee generates -73% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
16.2K
Each employee generates -57% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
12.2K
Each employee generates -1970% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.9K
Each employee generates -160% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
72.7K
Each employee generates -160% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TTEK
WILLSCOT MOBILE MINI HOLDINGS CORP. (XNAS:WSC)
LANDSTAR SYSTEM, INC. (XNAS:LSTR)
SAIA, INC. (XNAS:SAIA)
JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION (XNAS:JBLU)
ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD (XNAS:ESLT)
CHART INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:GTLS)
AVIS BUDGET GROUP, INC. (XNAS:CAR)
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (XNAS:BHFAL)
TuSimple Holdings Inc (XNAS:TSP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/3/22
Revenue:
3.40B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.86B
544.55M
-
-
234.24M
-
-
234.24M
254.00K
12.95M
24.94M
339.23M
313.38M
256.39M
301.35M
44.95M
256.39M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.11M
Differed Income Tax :
- 878.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
5.83M
Change in Working Capital :
3.22M
Accounts Receivables:
- 21560.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 6257.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 349.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
82.42M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 8858.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/2/22
2022
Q1
205.54M
-
205.54M
804.59M
-
103.27M
1.11B
247.45M
1.12B
36.54M
3.89M
58.88M
57.25M
1.53B
-
2.64B
142.85M
81.91M
-
219.52M
404.99M
849.27M
419.67M
119.66M
553.24M
-
1.40B
540.00K
1.36B
- 123048.0K
-
January 2, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
3.09B
1.24B
2.64B
-
501.58M
296.0M
-
2.00M
- 6862.00K
- 4901.00K
-
- 50000.00K
- 10793.00K
29.28M
- 36414.00K
- 169.00K
38.97M
205.54M
166.57M
82.42M
- 1518.00K
80.90M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TTEK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$177.10
$188.05
$199.67
$212.02
$225.13