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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Tesla, Inc. (XNAS:TSLA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TSLA
Name:
TESLA, INC. (XNAS:TSLA)
Sector:
2.21B
Industry:
Auto Manufacturers
CEO:
Mr. Elon Musk
Total Employees:
99,290
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -341.24% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TESLA, INC.(TSLA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AUTO MANUFACTURERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
270.21
One Month Price Target:
$273.54
Six Month Price Target :
$290.18
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$310.15
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$269.36
Price Upper limit ($) :
$273.54
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$246.19
This week:
$216.51
This month :
$162.81
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
859.89B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
3.13B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.89%
-21.06%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$381.28
$327.98
$159.14
$212.44
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$310.63
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$299.24
$229.65
$241.18
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TSLA
Sharpe Ratio:
9.90%
Comparison:
TSLA, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 170.34% higher than the industry
& ratio is 334.27% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TSLA
Daily returns:
0.46%
Weekly returns:
2.30%
Monthly returns:
9.19%
Yearly returns:
42.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 157.75% above industry average
Classification:
TSLA, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.1
Statistical test of Returns:
TSLA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.55%
Weekly Volatility:
10.18%
Monthly Volatility:
20.35%
Yearly Volatility:
70.51%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.49%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -67.25% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.89%
Weekly VaR:
-19.87%
Monthly VaR:
-39.75%
How Much Can the price of
TSLA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$189.53
This translates to price declining to:
$40.53
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TSLA is a 180.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 140.33% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 4.57% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TSLA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.20
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.035
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.463
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.945
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.564
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.773
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.314
Beta is 67.33% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.758
Beta is 25.11% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
21.01%
Sustainable growth rate is -21.49% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.920
Alpha is 233.69% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 5858% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TSLA
Equity cost of capital:
0.182
Equity cost of capital is 19.90% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
16.11%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.74%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.74%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.74%
WACC is 33.21% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$19.85
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
23.91
Annual revenue growth rate is -901.86% below industry average
EPS:
$7.40
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.61
-
-
Debt per share
$1.59
EBITDA per share
$4.11
Valuation Analysis Today of
TSLA
P/E Ratio:
97.3
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
58.38
P/E ratio is 66.68% higher than main peers & is 134.56% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $306.97
TSLA is -11.98% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
13.61
Price to sales ratio is -64.08% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
23.91
Price to free cash flow: 40.90
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-602.18%
Net income growth rate is -112.59% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
14.57%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-30.75%
Debt to assets ratio:
7.52%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-15.87%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -86.10% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
38.67
Interest coverage ratio is -254.32% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-33.18%
Annual debt growth is -162% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 29.40%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.515
Statistical significance of correlation:
TSLA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.49
Stock price is 4.97% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.49
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.047
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.123
Kurtosis
3.018
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.075
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TSLA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
107%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.33%
Operating profit margin is -97.90% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
107%
Effective Tax Rate:
10.34%
Effective tax rate is 57.62% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
24.64%
Return on equity (ROE) is 69.40% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is 745.76% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.35
Current ratio is -71.30% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-65.1
Cash conversion cycle is -130.28% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.98%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
626.3K
Each employee generates 20% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
129.7K
Each employee generates -174% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
84.6K
Each employee generates -137% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
22.3K
Each employee generates -178% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
372.5K
Each employee generates -178% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 73.91%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -286.02% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
TSLA
AMAZON.COM, INC. (XNAS:AMZN)
STARBUCKS CORPORATION (XNAS:SBUX)
JD.COM, INC. (XNAS:JD)
RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE, INC. (XNAS:RIVN)
PINDUODUO INC. (XNAS:PDD)
Mercado Libre, Inc. (XNAS:MELI)
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:MAR)
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (XNAS:ORLY)
LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. (XNAS:LULU)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�17%
Hold�33%
Sell�25%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
62.19B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
45.34B
16.85B
2.79B
-
4.45B
-
-
7.25B
74.00M
333.00M
3.17B
12.88B
9.53B
8.40B
9.44B
976.00M
8.40B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
880.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
418.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 602000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 409000.00K
Other Working Capital:
491.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
19.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
4.00B
Investments in PP&E:
- 1772000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 386000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
17.51B
508.00M
18.01B
2.31B
6.69B
2.04B
29.05B
32.64B
200.00M
1.52B
-
-
2.63B
36.99B
-
66.04B
11.17B
2.06B
1.27B
2.72B
5.51B
21.46B
4.97B
2.00B
9.18B
-
30.63B
1.00M
3.65B
- 50000.0K
30.49B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
52.58B
34.09B
64.72B
-
7.03B
- 10480000.0K
-
- 9000.00K
- 2167000.00K
- 2068000.00K
-
-
-
154.00M
- 1914000.00K
- 18000.00K
- 104000.00K
18.04B
18.14B
4.00B
- 1781000.00K
2.21B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TSLA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$311.70
$553.07
$634.81
$728.64
$836.34