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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Terminix Global Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:TMX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TMX
Name:
TERMINIX GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:TMX)
Sector:
71.00M
Industry:
Personal Services
CEO:
Mr. Anthony D. DiLucente CPA
Total Employees:
11,700
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 119.29% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TERMINIX GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC.(TMX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PERSONAL SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
42.25
One Month Price Target:
$42.43
Six Month Price Target :
$43.32
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$44.39
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$42.08
Price Upper limit ($) :
$42.47
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$39.93
This week:
$37.07
This month :
$31.89
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.21B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
121.54M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.27%
-23.57%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$52.99
$48.06
$31.51
$36.44
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$46.45
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$45.40
$38.03
$39.10
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TMX
Sharpe Ratio:
1.66%
Comparison:
TMX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 484.64% higher than the industry
& is -27.03% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TMX
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.27%
Monthly returns:
1.07%
Yearly returns:
0.17%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 7414.87% above industry average
Classification:
TMX, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.46
Statistical test of Returns:
TMX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.69%
Weekly Volatility:
6.03%
Monthly Volatility:
12.05%
Yearly Volatility:
41.75%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.67%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -75.14% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.48%
Weekly VaR:
-12.25%
Monthly VaR:
-24.51%
How Much Can the price of
TMX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-84.90%
This translates to price declining to:
$33.35
This translates to price declining to:
$6.38
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TMX is a 72.99% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 48.20% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.76% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TMX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.75
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.743
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.051
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.593
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.529
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.443
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.433
Beta is -47.35% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.861
Beta is -12.40% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
23.75%
Sustainable growth rate is 18.97% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.046
Alpha is -151.36% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 290% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TMX
Equity cost of capital:
0.083
Equity cost of capital is -8.08% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.54%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.35%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.43%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.43%
WACC is 25.84% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$17.02
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.12
-
EPS:
$0.93
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
2.08%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 921.88% higher than the Personal Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.93
-
-
Debt per share
$7.73
EBITDA per share
$2.76
Valuation Analysis Today of
TMX
P/E Ratio:
78.95
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.55
P/E ratio is 528.91% higher than main peers & is 90.89% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $38.47
TMX is 9.84% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.48
Price to sales ratio is -29.34% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.12
Price to free cash flow: 21.87
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
38.71%
Net debt to equity ratio:
35.63%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.91%
Net debt to assets ratio:
19.24%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -74.58% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.47
Interest coverage ratio is -89.43% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.47%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.374
Statistical significance of correlation:
TMX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.482
Stock price is -22.44% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.482
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.006
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.009
Kurtosis
25.046
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.4
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TMX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
164%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.94%
Operating profit margin is 5.13% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
164%
Effective Tax Rate:
29.88%
Effective tax rate is 25.25% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.82%
Return on equity (ROE) is -102.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.60%
Return on assets (ROA) is -66.52% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.05
Current ratio is 2.85% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
9.2
Cash conversion cycle is -51.90% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.13%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
176.8K
Each employee generates -56% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
28.7K
Each employee generates -73% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
10.0K
Each employee generates -86% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
6.1K
Each employee generates -78% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
335.1K
Each employee generates -78% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TMX
FOOT LOCKER, INC. (XNYS:FL)
ARAD LTD. (XTAE:ARD)
CHOICE HOTELS INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNYS:CHH)
NORDSTROM, INC. (XNYS:JWN)
AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS, INC. (XNYS:AEO)
SONOCO PRODUCTS COMPANY (XNYS:SON)
WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. (XNYS:WH)
YATSEN HOLDING LIMITED (XNYS:YSG)
CALLAWAY GOLF COMPANY (XNYS:ELY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.07B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.22B
850.00M
-
80.00M
562.00M
201.00M
41.00M
603.00M
2.00M
45.00M
125.00M
336.00M
247.00M
117.00M
164.00M
49.00M
117.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
31.00M
Differed Income Tax :
2.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
6.00M
Change in Working Capital :
7.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
5.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
13.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
78.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
170.00M
-
170.00M
195.00M
44.00M
164.00M
573.00M
266.00M
2.21B
1.08B
14.00M
-
347.00M
3.92B
7.84B
4.50B
105.00M
95.00M
-
108.00M
239.00M
547.00M
940.00M
182.00M
1.52B
-
2.07B
2.00M
986.00M
6.0M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.82B
2.43B
4.50B
-
1.04B
865.0M
-
- 33000.00K
- 40000.00K
- 65000.00K
1.00M
-
-
80.00M
16.00M
-
53.00M
258.00M
205.00M
78.00M
- 7000.00K
71.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TMX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$49.46
$51.97
$54.61
$57.38
$60.29