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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Teradata Corporation (XNYS:TDC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TDC
Name:
TERADATA CORPORATION (XNYS:TDC)
Sector:
150.00M
Industry:
Information Technology Services
CEO:
Mr. Victor Lund
Total Employees:
7,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -95.27% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TERADATA CORPORATION(TDC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.02
One Month Price Target:
$32.21
Six Month Price Target :
$33.15
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$34.27
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$31.85
Price Upper limit ($) :
$32.25
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$29.61
This week:
$26.63
This month :
$21.24
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.35B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
102.80M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
37.08%
-16.33%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.21
$38.05
$20.83
$25.99
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$36.37
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.27
$27.65
$28.77
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TDC
Sharpe Ratio:
2.42%
Comparison:
TDC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 33.41% higher than the industry
& ratio is 6.07% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TDC
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.49%
Monthly returns:
1.97%
Yearly returns:
14.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 64.04% above industry average
Classification:
TDC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.53
Statistical test of Returns:
TDC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.71%
Weekly Volatility:
8.31%
Monthly Volatility:
16.61%
Yearly Volatility:
57.55%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.20%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -67.83% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.53%
Weekly VaR:
-16.84%
Monthly VaR:
-33.68%
How Much Can the price of
TDC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$22.85
This translates to price declining to:
$4.80
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TDC is a 137.70% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 103.64% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 22.44% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TDC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.909
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.285
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.468
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.859
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.606
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.357
Beta is -22.80% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.209
Beta is -13.30% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
32.58%
Sustainable growth rate is -78.11% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.134
Alpha is 344.14% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 850% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TDC
Equity cost of capital:
0.103
Equity cost of capital is -9.64% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.61%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.41%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.69%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.69%
WACC is -3.46% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$18.70
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
13.89
Annual revenue growth rate is -118.38% below industry average
EPS:
$1.17
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.50
-
-
Debt per share
$3.84
EBITDA per share
$3.35
Valuation Analysis Today of
TDC
P/E Ratio:
43.47
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
51.47
P/E ratio is -15.54% lower than main peers & is -8.42% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $55.54
TDC is -42.35% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.71
Price to sales ratio is -53.10% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
13.89
Price to free cash flow: 7.12
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
434.38%
Net income growth rate is -99.45% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
166.67%
Net debt to equity ratio:
64.56%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.84%
Net debt to assets ratio:
8.07%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -67.15% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
18.11
Interest coverage ratio is -56.67% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.95%
Annual debt growth is -17% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.14%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.412
Statistical significance of correlation:
TDC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.596
Stock price is -30.90% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.596
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.02
Kurtosis
28.789
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
3.133
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TDC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
245%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.34%
Operating profit margin is -263.36% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
245%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.71%
Effective tax rate is -2.61% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
54.85%
Return on equity (ROE) is -2.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.86%
Return on assets (ROA) is 7936.30% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
0.87
Current ratio is -62.47% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
30.5
Cash conversion cycle is -18.59% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
23.85%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
266.9K
Each employee generates -37% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
47.8K
Each employee generates 7% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
18.1K
Each employee generates 112% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
20.8K
Each employee generates -413% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
143.3K
Each employee generates -413% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -7.49%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -123.88% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
TDC
ALIGHT, INC. (XNYS:ALIT)
Shift4 Payments Inc (XNYS:FOUR)
ONTO INNOVATION INC. (XNYS:ONTO)
DoubleVerify Holdings Inc (XNYS:DV)
ATOTECH LIMITED (XNYS:ATC)
Q2 HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:QTWO)
SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNYS:SAIC)
ENVESTNET, INC. (XNYS:ENV)
XEROX HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:XRX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�50%
Sell�21%
Strong sell�13%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.92B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
742.00M
1.18B
308.00M
-
654.00M
-
-
962.00M
5.00M
19.00M
150.00M
344.00M
218.00M
130.00M
175.00M
45.00M
130.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
40.00M
Differed Income Tax :
8.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
31.00M
Change in Working Capital :
36.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
69.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
151.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
404.00M
-
404.00M
330.00M
16.00M
113.00M
863.00M
296.00M
395.00M
-
-
200.00M
141.00M
1.03B
-
1.90B
78.00M
162.00M
-
580.00M
173.00M
993.00M
395.00M
235.00M
665.00M
-
1.66B
1.00M
- 1425000.00K
- 131000.0K
1.79B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.70B
237.00M
1.90B
-
557.00M
153.0M
-
- 1000.00K
- 1000.00K
- 35000.00K
-
- 300000.00K
-
4.00M
- 331000.00K
- 6000.00K
- 187000.00K
408.00M
595.00M
151.00M
- 1000.00K
150.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TDC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$34.44
$52.65
$56.36
$60.33
$64.58