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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Tenable Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:TENB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TENB
Name:
TENABLE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:TENB)
Sector:
28.05M
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. Amit Yoran
Total Employees:
1,617
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -55.73% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TENABLE HOLDINGS, INC.(TENB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
37.43
One Month Price Target:
$37.71
Six Month Price Target :
$39.1
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$40.76
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$37.26
Price Upper limit ($) :
$37.68
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$34.94
This week:
$31.87
This month :
$26.31
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.19B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
111.64M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.14%
-15.59%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.96
$43.62
$25.90
$31.24
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$41.88
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.74
$32.96
$34.12
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TENB
Sharpe Ratio:
3.21%
Comparison:
TENB, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 96.25% higher than the industry
& ratio is 40.77% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TENB
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.57%
Monthly returns:
2.29%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 90.90% above industry average
Classification:
TENB, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
TENB has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.29%
Weekly Volatility:
7.36%
Monthly Volatility:
14.71%
Yearly Volatility:
50.97%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.14%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -4.40% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.64%
Weekly VaR:
-14.85%
Monthly VaR:
-29.70%
How Much Can the price of
TENB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$28.09
This translates to price declining to:
$5.61
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TENB is a 109.65% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 79.61% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.26% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TENB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.32
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.901
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.274
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.081
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.109
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.664
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.308
Beta is 1.21% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is 19.12% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.152
Alpha is 321.14% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 970% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TENB
Equity cost of capital:
0.122
Equity cost of capital is 13.52% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.97%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-6.19%
After-tax cost of debt:
-4.89%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-4.89%
WACC is 51.69% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.17
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
18.41
Annual revenue growth rate is -89.66% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.59
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-24.69%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -181.95% lower than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.73
-
-
Debt per share
$0.48
EBITDA per share
-$0.46
Valuation Analysis Today of
TENB
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
276.01
-
-
TENB is -197.25% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.24
Price to sales ratio is -34.09% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
18.41
Price to free cash flow: 51.04
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-66.27%
Net income growth rate is -100.78% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
23.65%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-101.43%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.34%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-18.60%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -93.78% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.64
Interest coverage ratio is -106.94% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
623.46%
Annual debt growth is 480% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.532
Statistical significance of correlation:
TENB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is 10.86% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.008
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.014
Kurtosis
5.31
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.214
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TENB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
318%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-9.27%
Operating profit margin is -21.90% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
318%
Effective Tax Rate:
4.68%
Effective tax rate is -85.05% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-27.95%
Return on equity (ROE) is -126.18% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-5.12%
Return on assets (ROA) is 35.32% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.56
Current ratio is -33.11% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
92.1
Cash conversion cycle is -18.16% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 57.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-40.04%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
357.0K
Each employee generates -9% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 32.1K
Each employee generates -149% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 39.2K
Each employee generates -287% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
17.3K
Each employee generates -12% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
318.9K
Each employee generates -12% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 14.50%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -659.20% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
TENB
ITRON, INC. (XNAS:ITRI)
Jamf Holding Corp. (XNAS:JAMF)
MACOM TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MTSI)
SUNPOWER CORPORATION (XNAS:SPWR)
VICOR CORPORATION (XNAS:VICR)
COMMSCOPE HOLDING COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:COMM)
VIAVI SOLUTIONS INC. (XNAS:VIAV)
VNET Group, Inc. (XNAS:VNET)
SABRE CORPORATION (XNAS:SABR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
577.31M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
119.25M
458.06M
123.88M
94.59M
387.69M
293.09M
-
511.57M
-
- 3542.00K
18.25M
- 51843.00K
- 53514.00K
- 63435.00K
- 66551.00K
- 3116.00K
- 63435.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.90M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
25.40M
Change in Working Capital :
25.75M
Accounts Receivables:
40.34M
Other Working Capital:
- 3543.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.32M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
32.86M
Investments in PP&E:
- 4811.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 60850.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
287.46M
238.65M
526.10M
96.38M
-
99.75M
722.23M
77.12M
280.57M
73.22M
-
-
84.73M
515.64M
-
1.24B
-
3.56M
-
404.79M
55.46M
463.81M
53.69M
370.70M
547.10M
-
1.01B
1.10M
- 679035.00K
- 1363.0K
906.26M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
630.82M
226.97M
1.24B
-
57.25M
- 230206.0K
55.14M
- 22960.00K
- 33486.00K
-
-
-
-
10.53M
10.53M
- 449.00K
9.46M
287.73M
278.27M
32.86M
- 4811.00K
28.05M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TENB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$40.96
$8.22
$8.96
$9.75
$10.62