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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Tempur Sealy International, Inc. (XNYS:TPX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TPX
Name:
TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNYS:TPX)
Sector:
25.30M
Industry:
Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
CEO:
Mr. Scott Thompson
Total Employees:
12,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -101.02% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL, INC.(TPX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FURNISHINGS, FIXTURES & APPLIANCES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
24.88
One Month Price Target:
$25.14
Six Month Price Target :
$26.41
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$27.95
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$24.74
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.07
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$22.87
This week:
$20.39
This month :
$15.9
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.20B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
172.19M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
38.86%
-28.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.20
$29.91
$15.56
$19.85
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$28.51
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$27.59
$21.24
$22.17
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TPX
Sharpe Ratio:
2.33%
Comparison:
TPX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 109.87% higher than the industry
& ratio is 2.38% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TPX
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.51%
Monthly returns:
2.04%
Yearly returns:
14.35%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 70.17% above industry average
Classification:
TPX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
TPX has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.98%
Weekly Volatility:
8.90%
Monthly Volatility:
17.81%
Yearly Volatility:
61.68%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.15%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -46.00% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.07%
Weekly VaR:
-18.06%
Monthly VaR:
-36.11%
How Much Can the price of
TPX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$17.22
This translates to price declining to:
$3.73
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TPX is a 154.88% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 118.35% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.82% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TPX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.83
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.207
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.708
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.083
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.233
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.059
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.34
Beta is 36.88% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.707
Beta is 7.42% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
184.35%
Sustainable growth rate is 451.04% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.087
Alpha is -1867.35% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 554% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TPX
Equity cost of capital:
0.157
Equity cost of capital is 5.85% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-0.71%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.33%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.84%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.84%
WACC is -39.81% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$29.77
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-46.92
Annual revenue growth rate is 85.44% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.14
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
52.08%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 328.37% higher than the Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.10
-
-
Debt per share
$17.69
EBITDA per share
$5.88
Valuation Analysis Today of
TPX
P/E Ratio:
8.42
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.6
P/E ratio is -33.19% lower than main peers & is -47.93% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $50.78
TPX is -51.01% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $26.91
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $5.28
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.84
Price to sales ratio is -8.82% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-46.92
Price to free cash flow: 8.03
Price to free cash flow ratio is -93.40% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
550.39%
Net income growth rate is -828.53% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.99%
Dividend yeild: 1.53%
Previous Dividend: $0.10
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.10
Previous Dividend: $0.38
Expected next dividend best case: $0.12
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.08
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.09
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 7.94%
Expected next dividend payment date: 24/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/10/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 26/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/12/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-11--$0.10
2021-11-09--$0.09
2021-05-12--$0.07
2022-03-07--$0.10
2021-08-11--$0.09
2021-02-24--$0.07
Dividend growth rate is -159.66% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-3024.83%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-3075.67%
Debt to assets ratio:
70.48%
Net debt to assets ratio:
71.66%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -5.13% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.52
Interest coverage ratio is -85.10% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1833.87%
Annual debt growth is 690% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.72%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.589
Statistical significance of correlation:
TPX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is 5.92% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.029
Kurtosis
22.845
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.292
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TPX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
173%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.80%
Operating profit margin is 140.65% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
173%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.84%
Effective tax rate is 29.15% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-620.36%
Return on equity (ROE) is -2215.21% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
14.45%
Return on assets (ROA) is 61.32% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
3.4x
Current Ratio:
1.11
Current ratio is -28.81% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-10.8
Cash conversion cycle is -119.31% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.21%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
427.2K
Each employee generates -2% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
84.4K
Each employee generates 123% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
52.1K
Each employee generates 147% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
2.1K
Each employee generates -116% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
258.6K
Each employee generates -116% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TPX
CHOICE HOTELS INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNYS:CHH)
RALPH LAUREN CORPORATION (XNYS:RL)
UNDER ARMOUR, INC. (XNYS:UA)
QUANTUMSCAPE CORPORATION (XNYS:QS)
PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:PAG)
WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. (XNYS:WH)
LITHIA MOTORS, INC. (XNYS:LAD)
APTARGROUP, INC. (XNYS:ATR)
GILDAN ACTIVEWEAR INC. (XNYS:GIL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�29%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.13B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.90B
2.22B
-
372.00M
1.34B
968.90M
-
1.34B
-
74.90M
117.10M
1.01B
912.50M
624.70M
821.60M
195.90M
624.70M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
30.40M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
13.80M
Change in Working Capital :
- 85200.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3300.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
85.60M
Investments in PP&E:
- 60300.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
116.30M
-
116.30M
426.40M
581.30M
94.80M
1.22B
1.14B
1.10B
743.80M
-
13.50M
112.20M
3.10B
-
4.32B
462.30M
167.50M
56.40M
59.80M
411.50M
1.10B
3.05B
138.40M
3.31B
-
4.41B
2.80M
2.72B
- 116700.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.24B
- 100700.00K
4.31B
-
3.21B
3.1B
-
1.00M
- 59300.00K
- 219500.00K
-
- 494800.00K
- 18700.00K
528.20M
- 204800.00K
- 5900.00K
- 184400.00K
116.30M
300.70M
85.60M
- 60300.00K
25.30M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TPX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$28.09
$47.81
$53.71
$60.32
$67.76