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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Tellurian Inc. (XNYS:TELL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TELL
Name:
TELLURIAN INC. (XNYS:TELL)
Sector:
- 151448.00K
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Ms. Meg Gentle
Total Employees:
107
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -11.85% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TELLURIAN INC.(TELL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
4.08
One Month Price Target:
$4.13
Six Month Price Target :
$4.37
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$4.67
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$4.04
Price Upper limit ($) :
$4.14
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$3.45
This week:
$2.67
This month :
$1.27
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.54B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
568.62M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
56.44%
-51.02%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.00
$5.65
$1.16
$2.51
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$5.21
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.93
$2.94
$3.23
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TELL
Sharpe Ratio:
2.71%
Comparison:
TELL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -41.03% lower than the industry
& ratio is 18.89% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TELL
Daily returns:
0.22%
Weekly returns:
1.08%
Monthly returns:
4.30%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -15.92% below industry average
Classification:
TELL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.48
Statistical test of Returns:
TELL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
7.61%
Weekly Volatility:
17.03%
Monthly Volatility:
34.05%
Yearly Volatility:
117.95%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
5.36%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -29.63% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-15.42%
Weekly VaR:
-34.48%
Monthly VaR:
-68.97%
How Much Can the price of
TELL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-59%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1.69
This translates to price declining to:
$0.61
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TELL is a 386.78% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 317.02% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 42.64% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TELL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.14
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.372
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.94
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.327
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.136
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
27.701
Beta is -92.26% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is 6.59% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.338
Alpha is -24.02% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2152% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TELL
Equity cost of capital:
0.178
Equity cost of capital is 5.37% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
10.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
7.94%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
7.94%
WACC is 21.80% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.37
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.42
Annual revenue growth rate is 525.95% above the industry average
EPS:
-$0.29
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-25.97%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -180.56% lower than the Oil & Gas E&P industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.10
EBITDA per share
-$0.23
Valuation Analysis Today of
TELL
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
33.42
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
TELL is -133.41% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
11.07
Price to sales ratio is 124.93% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.42
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-27.86%
Net income growth rate is -103.92% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
10.46%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-45.43%
Debt to assets ratio:
7.50%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-32.55%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -85.93% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-22.49
Interest coverage ratio is -383.56% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-50.49%
Annual debt growth is -102% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.336
Statistical significance of correlation:
TELL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is -14.93% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.048
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.211
Kurtosis
11.781
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.666
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TELL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
113%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-64.93%
Operating profit margin is 4619.38% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
113%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-29.42%
Return on equity (ROE) is -445.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-21.08%
Return on assets (ROA) is -1016.94% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
3.98
Current ratio is 99.34% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
18.9
Cash conversion cycle is -73.29% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-0.84%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.0M
Each employee generates -76% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1211.9K
Each employee generates -150% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1442.6K
Each employee generates -445% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 1415.4K
Each employee generates 1436% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.7M
Each employee generates 1436% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 82.55%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -33.85% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
TELL
CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP. (XNAS:CLNE)
OASIS MIDSTREAM PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:OMP)
XOG
HIGHPEAK ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:HPK)
ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:ARLP)
Brooge Energy Ltd (XNAS:BROG)
WEATHERFORD INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:WFRD)
National Energy Services Reunited Corp. (XNAS:NESR)
PERMIAN RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNAS:PR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
209.51M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
182.71M
26.80M
59.71M
103.12M
103.12M
-
-
162.83M
-
5.77M
18.92M
- 129675.00K
- 136027.00K
- 154359.00K
- 154359.00K
-
- 154359.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.30M
Change in Working Capital :
- 41850.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 5396.00K
Other Working Capital:
826.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
24.58M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 82579.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 68869.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 6089.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
295.73M
-
295.73M
14.67M
-
25.39M
335.78M
364.57M
-
-
6.09M
-
25.77M
396.43M
-
732.21M
7.80M
2.50M
498.00K
-
74.04M
84.34M
54.89M
68.32M
123.21M
-
207.55M
5.23M
- 997666.00K
-
1.52B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
345.54M
524.66M
732.21M
-
57.39M
- 238338.0K
-
-
- 74958.00K
-
176.97M
-
-
- 4205.00K
172.77M
-
15.23M
322.51M
307.27M
- 82579.00K
- 68869.00K
- 151448.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TELL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$4.69
$2.62
$3.00
$3.43
$3.93