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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Target Corporation (XNYS:TGT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TGT
Name:
TARGET CORPORATION (XNYS:TGT)
Sector:
- 2346000.00K
Industry:
Discount Stores
CEO:
Mr. Brian Cornell
Total Employees:
450,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 2271.36% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TARGET CORPORATION(TGT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DISCOUNT STORES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
164.6
One Month Price Target:
$165.54
Six Month Price Target :
$170.22
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$175.84
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$164.08
Price Upper limit ($) :
$165.34
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$157.11
This week:
$147.86
This month :
$131.12
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
75.30B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
460.26M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.65%
-24.93%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$199.33
$183.30
$129.87
$145.90
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$178.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$174.66
$151.07
$154.54
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TGT
Sharpe Ratio:
2.51%
Comparison:
TGT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 8.22% higher than the industry
& ratio is 10.07% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TGT
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.33%
Monthly returns:
1.30%
Yearly returns:
13.35%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 17.22% above industry average
Classification:
TGT, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.51
Statistical test of Returns:
TGT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.25%
Weekly Volatility:
5.02%
Monthly Volatility:
10.05%
Yearly Volatility:
34.80%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.45%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -35.61% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.55%
Weekly VaR:
-10.17%
Monthly VaR:
-20.34%
How Much Can the price of
TGT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-70.46%
This translates to price declining to:
$136.22
This translates to price declining to:
$48.62
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TGT is a 43.57% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 22.99% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.90% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TGT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.02
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.823
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.164
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.473
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.671
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.505
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.719
Beta is 41.36% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.701
Beta is 44.90% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
35.24%
Sustainable growth rate is 81.23% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.055
Alpha is 2.65% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 353% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TGT
Equity cost of capital:
0.101
Equity cost of capital is 27.12% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.70%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.49%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.97%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.97%
WACC is 22.51% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$232.43
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.03
Annual revenue growth rate is 18.36% above the industry average
EPS:
$12.06
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
36.45%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 92.67% higher than the Discount Stores industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.57
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 9.83%
Equity growth rate per share is -91.20% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$34.68
EBITDA per share
$23.09
Valuation Analysis Today of
TGT
P/E Ratio:
18.69
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.6
P/E ratio is -24.00% lower than main peers & is -19.42% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $279.76
TGT is -41.16% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $81.44
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $56.74
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.71
Price to sales ratio is -31.88% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.03
Price to free cash flow: 36.05
Price to free cash flow ratio is -64.39% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
64.01%
Net income growth rate is 29.56% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.24%
Dividend yeild: 2.19%
Previous Dividend: $0.90
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.90
Previous Dividend: $3.60
Expected next dividend best case: $1.00
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.80
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.75
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.54%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 16/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 06/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 18/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/10/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-17--$0.90
2021-11-16--$0.90
2021-05-18--$0.68
2022-02-15--$0.90
2021-08-17--$0.90
2021-02-16--$0.68
Dividend growth rate is -91.92% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
148.13%
Net debt to equity ratio:
147.92%
Debt to assets ratio:
31.39%
Net debt to assets ratio:
31.35%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -51.99% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
25
Interest coverage ratio is -90.50% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
29.15%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.30%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.563
Statistical significance of correlation:
TGT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.493
Stock price is 14.30% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.493
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.006
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.007
Kurtosis
26.182
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.796
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TGT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
114%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.40%
Operating profit margin is 44.98% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
114%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.38%
Effective tax rate is -15.56% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
54.37%
Return on equity (ROE) is 125.06% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.52%
Return on assets (ROA) is 48.27% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.87
Current ratio is -33.87% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-58.2
Cash conversion cycle is -215.92% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.42%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
237.7K
Each employee generates -36% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
23.6K
Each employee generates -13% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
13.0K
Each employee generates -16% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 5.2K
Each employee generates -587% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
73.1K
Each employee generates -587% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TGT
Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA (XNYS:BUD)
DIAGEO PLC (XNYS:DEO)
THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC. (XNYS:EL)
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO P.L.C. (XNYS:BTI)
UNILEVER PLC (XNYS:UL)
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY (XNYS:CL)
Philip Morris International Inc. (XNYS:PM)
DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION (XNYS:DG)
KEURIG DR PEPPER INC. (XNAS:KDP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�75%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
106.98B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
76.71B
30.27B
-
-
20.01B
-
1.75B
21.75B
-
425.00M
2.65B
10.63B
7.92B
5.86B
7.55B
1.69B
5.86B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
679.00M
Differed Income Tax :
115.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
83.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 3280000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 1394000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/30/22
2022
Q1
1.11B
-
1.11B
-
15.08B
1.76B
17.95B
31.24B
-
-
-
-
1.65B
32.89B
-
50.84B
14.05B
1.09B
-
-
5.58B
20.72B
15.96B
1.63B
19.34B
-
40.07B
39.00M
5.50B
- 352000.0K
5.59B
April 30, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
98.46B
10.77B
50.84B
-
17.05B
15.9B
-
- 948000.00K
- 948000.00K
- 48000.00K
-
- 181000.00K
- 424000.00K
- 1804000.00K
- 2457000.00K
-
- 4799000.00K
1.11B
5.91B
- 1394000.00K
- 952000.00K
- 2346000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TGT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$176.72
$307.64
$328.64
$351.08
$375.05