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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (XNAS:TNDM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TNDM
Name:
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (XNAS:TNDM)
Sector:
11.16M
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. John Sheridan
Total Employees:
2,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -84.73% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TANDEM DIABETES CARE, INC.(TNDM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
44.75
One Month Price Target:
$44.99
Six Month Price Target :
$46.19
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$47.63
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$44.51
Price Upper limit ($) :
$45.
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$41.78
This week:
$38.12
This month :
$31.48
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.81B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
64.22M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.32%
-16.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$58.52
$52.25
$30.98
$37.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$50.21
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.87
$39.27
$40.63
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TNDM
Sharpe Ratio:
0.01%
Comparison:
TNDM, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -99.03% lower than the industry
& is -99.36% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TNDM
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.05%
Monthly returns:
0.19%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -85.43% below industry average
Classification:
TNDM, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.21
Statistical test of Returns:
TNDM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.23%
Weekly Volatility:
7.23%
Monthly Volatility:
14.45%
Yearly Volatility:
50.07%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.29%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -60.21% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.63%
Weekly VaR:
-14.82%
Monthly VaR:
-29.64%
How Much Can the price of
TNDM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$33.06
This translates to price declining to:
$6.71
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TNDM is a 109.22% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 79.24% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 2.95% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TNDM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.96
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.715
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.012
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.436
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.002
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.623
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.134
Beta is -15.50% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is -9.99% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
1.35%
Sustainable growth rate is -89.64% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.075
Alpha is -252.17% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -476% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TNDM
Equity cost of capital:
0.097
Equity cost of capital is -6.98% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.42%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.03%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.81%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.81%
WACC is -22.19% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.49
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.57
Annual revenue growth rate is -45.93% below industry average
EPS:
$0.09
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.11
-
-
Debt per share
$6.40
EBITDA per share
$0.36
Valuation Analysis Today of
TNDM
P/E Ratio:
793.58
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
276.68
P/E ratio is 186.82% higher than main peers & is 225.84% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $21.92
TNDM is 104.16% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.9
Price to sales ratio is -58.15% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.57
Price to free cash flow: 40.43
Price to free cash flow ratio is 4.11% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-110.02%
Net income growth rate is -213.27% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
93.99%
Net debt to equity ratio:
74.42%
Debt to assets ratio:
40.49%
Net debt to assets ratio:
32.06%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 4.51% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.32
Interest coverage ratio is -60.15% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
37.82%
Annual debt growth is -84% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.486
Statistical significance of correlation:
TNDM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is 3.89% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.03
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.056
Kurtosis
3.216
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.305
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TNDM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
214%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.43%
Operating profit margin is -108.38% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
214%
Effective Tax Rate:
-27.51%
Effective tax rate is -150.10% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
1.35%
Return on equity (ROE) is -113.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.58%
Return on assets (ROA) is -117.22% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
6.21
Current ratio is -3.95% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
45.1
Cash conversion cycle is -19.22% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
307.21%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
368.8K
Each employee generates -2% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
11.5K
Each employee generates 83% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
2.9K
Each employee generates -110% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.6K
Each employee generates -139% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
98.4K
Each employee generates -139% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 44.80%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -34264.02% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
TNDM
JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:JAZZ)
INTELLIA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:NTLA)
GUARDANT HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:GH)
SAREPTA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SRPT)
MIRATI THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:MRTX)
SYNEOS HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:SYNH)
NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:NBIX)
OMNICELL, INC. (XNAS:OMCL)
NATERA, INC. (XNAS:NTRA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
737.67M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
343.65M
394.02M
107.25M
-
276.22M
-
-
383.47M
783.00K
4.31M
13.99M
22.92M
10.55M
5.90M
4.62M
- 1272.00K
5.90M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.63M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
18.11M
Change in Working Capital :
4.15M
Accounts Receivables:
15.73M
Other Working Capital:
- 12009.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.63M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
13.80M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2643.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 110719.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
93.68M
541.71M
635.39M
94.13M
79.99M
8.95M
818.46M
181.05M
-
-
-
-
15.77M
196.81M
-
1.02B
45.34M
8.08M
-
10.88M
67.51M
131.82M
411.10M
17.45M
446.08M
-
577.90M
64.00K
- 649310.00K
- 3061.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
727.12M
437.38M
1.02B
-
419.18M
325.5M
118.56M
-
5.20M
-
-
-
-
3.50M
3.50M
3.00K
22.50M
93.68M
71.18M
13.80M
- 2643.00K
11.16M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TNDM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$53.85
$57.32
$61.01
$64.94
$69.12