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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
T-Mobile Us, Inc. (XNAS:TMUS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TMUS
Name:
T-MOBILE US, INC. (XNAS:TMUS)
Sector:
- 2379000.00K
Industry:
Telecom Services
CEO:
Mr. John Legere
Total Employees:
75,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -272.21% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF T-MOBILE US, INC.(TMUS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TELECOM SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
141.98
One Month Price Target:
$142.36
Six Month Price Target :
$144.28
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$146.59
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$141.65
Price Upper limit ($) :
$142.64
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$136.16
This week:
$128.97
This month :
$115.97
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
177.96B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
1.25B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.78%
-11.21%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$168.93
$156.31
$115.03
$127.65
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$152.20
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$149.51
$131.72
$134.45
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TMUS
Sharpe Ratio:
5.16%
Comparison:
TMUS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 430.39% higher than the industry
& ratio is 126.25% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TMUS
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.57%
Monthly returns:
2.29%
Yearly returns:
17.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 54.74% above industry average
Classification:
TMUS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.35
Statistical test of Returns:
TMUS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.05%
Weekly Volatility:
4.59%
Monthly Volatility:
9.17%
Yearly Volatility:
31.77%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.85%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -58.78% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.10%
Weekly VaR:
-9.16%
Monthly VaR:
-18.32%
How Much Can the price of
TMUS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-63.47%
This translates to price declining to:
$120.85
This translates to price declining to:
$51.87
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TMUS is a 29.31% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 10.78% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -39.83% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TMUS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.48
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.626
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.885
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.21
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.686
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.619
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.681
Beta is -29.08% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.819
Beta is -41.01% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.46%
Sustainable growth rate is -56.16% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.210
Alpha is 133.43% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1340% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TMUS
Equity cost of capital:
0.065
Equity cost of capital is -26.26% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.80%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.09%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.44%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.44%
WACC is -21.95% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$64.18
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.54
Annual revenue growth rate is -90.47% below industry average
EPS:
$2.24
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-15.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -164.43% lower than the Telecom Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$80.53
EBITDA per share
$17.68
Valuation Analysis Today of
TMUS
P/E Ratio:
103.71
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
42.63
P/E ratio is 143.26% higher than main peers & is 251.46% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $66.10
TMUS is 114.80% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.21
Price to sales ratio is -64.63% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.54
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-22.24%
Net income growth rate is -105.46% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
144.32%
Net debt to equity ratio:
151.81%
Debt to assets ratio:
47.94%
Net debt to assets ratio:
50.43%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -37.29% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.54
Interest coverage ratio is 316.82% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
39.39%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.88%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.636
Statistical significance of correlation:
TMUS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.461
Stock price is 37.83% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.461
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.033
Kurtosis
7.212
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.336
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TMUS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
213%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.15%
Operating profit margin is 160.40% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
213%
Effective Tax Rate:
9.64%
Effective tax rate is -70.15% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.01%
Return on equity (ROE) is -204.35% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.33%
Return on assets (ROA) is -830.38% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
0.81
Current ratio is -49.54% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-66.7
Cash conversion cycle is -194.19% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.03%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates 7% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
295.6K
Each employee generates -14% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
37.4K
Each employee generates -64% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 31.7K
Each employee generates -155% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.6M
Each employee generates -155% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TMUS
CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS, INC. (XNAS:CHTR)
AIRBNB, INC. (XNAS:ABNB)
NETEASE, INC. (XNAS:NTES)
ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS, INC. (XNAS:ZM)
ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. (XNAS:ATVI)
COMCAST CORPORATION (XNAS:CMCSA)
VODAFONE GROUP PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:VOD)
ELECTRONIC ARTS INC. (XNAS:EA)
MATCH GROUP, INC. (XNAS:MTCH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�67%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
80.48B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
37.75B
42.73B
-
-
20.49B
-
15.68B
36.17B
17.00M
3.39B
15.68B
22.17B
6.56B
2.80B
3.10B
299.00M
2.80B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.59B
Differed Income Tax :
185.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
141.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1140000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 984000.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
361.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
3.85B
Investments in PP&E:
- 3381000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 52000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.25B
-
3.25B
9.08B
2.72B
2.42B
17.46B
74.74B
12.23B
97.11B
-
-
9.11B
193.20B
-
210.65B
6.74B
8.49B
1.76B
842.00M
5.35B
21.42B
100.99B
7.86B
119.25B
-
140.68B
-
- 2099000.00K
- 1329000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
73.92B
69.98B
210.65B
-
109.48B
106.2B
-
- 1659000.00K
- 5092000.00K
- 1934000.00K
-
-
-
- 202000.00K
- 2136000.00K
-
- 3383000.00K
3.32B
6.70B
3.85B
- 6224000.00K
- 2379000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TMUS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$160.49
$165.70
$171.08
$176.63
$182.36