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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sysco Corporation (XNYS:SYY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SYY
Name:
SYSCO CORPORATION (XNYS:SYY)
Sector:
25.79M
Industry:
Food Distribution
CEO:
Mr. Kevin Hourican
Total Employees:
71,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -11.85% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SYSCO CORPORATION(SYY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FOOD DISTRIBUTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
80.78
One Month Price Target:
$81.24
Six Month Price Target :
$83.51
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$86.25
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$80.4
Price Upper limit ($) :
$81.22
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$75.85
This week:
$69.75
This month :
$58.72
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
40.71B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
506.11M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.79%
-21.11%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$103.67
$93.19
$57.89
$68.37
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$89.78
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$87.54
$71.75
$74.02
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SYY
Sharpe Ratio:
1.08%
Comparison:
SYY, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -57.62% lower than the industry
& is -52.67% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SYY
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.21%
Monthly returns:
0.82%
Yearly returns:
25.81%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -61.74% below industry average
Classification:
SYY, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.56
Statistical test of Returns:
SYY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.99%
Weekly Volatility:
6.69%
Monthly Volatility:
13.39%
Yearly Volatility:
46.37%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.41%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -86.31% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.11%
Weekly VaR:
-13.65%
Monthly VaR:
-27.31%
How Much Can the price of
SYY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-94.60%
This translates to price declining to:
$61.65
This translates to price declining to:
$4.36
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SYY is a 92.75% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 65.13% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -23.42% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SYY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.01
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.765
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.082
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.157
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.837
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.895
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.61
Beta is 65.12% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.088
Beta is -7.38% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.002
Alpha is -101.18% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -11% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SYY
Equity cost of capital:
0.101
Equity cost of capital is -5.19% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.56%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.85%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.20%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.20%
WACC is 10.16% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$130.04
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
24.43
Annual revenue growth rate is -120.36% below industry average
EPS:
$1.94
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-22.30%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -158.36% lower than the Food Distribution industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.20
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 30.10%
Equity growth rate per share is 81.09% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$22.36
EBITDA per share
$6.06
Valuation Analysis Today of
SYY
P/E Ratio:
30.56
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.18
P/E ratio is 44.29% higher than main peers & is -10.00% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $65.87
SYY is 22.64% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $30.32
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $20.68
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.62
Price to sales ratio is 59.63% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
24.43
Price to free cash flow: 67.18
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-62.48%
Net income growth rate is -34.00% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 24.06%
Dividend yeild: 2.35%
Previous Dividend: $0.49
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.49
Previous Dividend: $1.90
Expected next dividend best case: $0.50
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.48
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.46
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.79%
Expected next dividend payment date: 20/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 22/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-06-30--$0.49
2022-01-06--$0.47
2021-09-15--$0.47
2022-03-31--$0.47
2021-09-30--$0.47
2021-07-01--$0.47
Dividend growth rate is -94.99% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
676.39%
Net debt to equity ratio:
589.08%
Debt to assets ratio:
51.21%
Net debt to assets ratio:
44.60%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -21.11% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.27
Interest coverage ratio is 13.90% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-18.78%
Annual debt growth is 71% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.09%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.634
Statistical significance of correlation:
SYY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.422
Stock price is 50.20% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.422
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.034
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.059
Kurtosis
13.579
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.196
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SYY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
72%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
3.25%
Operating profit margin is 480.37% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
72%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.81%
Effective tax rate is -8.66% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
59.75%
Return on equity (ROE) is 315.65% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.52%
Return on assets (ROA) is 147.81% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
1.38
Current ratio is -14.53% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-4
Cash conversion cycle is -117.29% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.93%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
927.0K
Each employee generates -53% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
43.2K
Each employee generates -18% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
14.1K
Each employee generates -5% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.4K
Each employee generates -100% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
160.8K
Each employee generates -100% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SYY
GENERAL MILLS, INC. (XNYS:GIS)
Ambev SA (XNYS:ABEV)
THE HERSHEY COMPANY (XNYS:HSY)
CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:STZ)
STZ-B
THE KROGER CO. (XNYS:KR)
KIMBERLY-CLARK CORPORATION (XNYS:KMB)
TYSON FOODS, INC. (XNYS:TSN)
BF-B
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�38%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
65.82B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
54.02B
11.79B
-
-
-
-
9.65B
9.65B
-
936.28M
881.96M
3.07B
2.14B
999.87M
1.25B
247.04M
999.87M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
214.69M
Differed Income Tax :
- 30452.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
29.31M
Change in Working Capital :
- 488222.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
7.47M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
110.81M
Investments in PP&E:
- 85019.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 714010.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 9925.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
10/2/21
2022
Q1
2.07B
-
2.07B
4.31B
4.05B
255.59M
10.69B
5.09B
4.40B
927.97M
-
360.19M
630.23M
11.41B
-
22.10B
5.24B
607.07M
83.14M
-
1.89B
7.74B
11.32B
1.20B
12.69B
-
20.43B
765.18M
10.29B
- 1217937.0K
- 8162237.00K
October 2, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
63.67B
1.67B
22.10B
-
11.92B
9.9B
8.70M
11.65M
- 788605.00K
- 10051.00K
-
-
- 240561.00K
12.88M
- 237731.00K
- 9355.00K
- 924879.00K
2.11B
3.04B
110.81M
- 85019.00K
25.79M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SYY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$73.40
$78.37
$83.68
$89.35
$95.40