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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Synovus Financial Corp. (XNYS:SNV) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SNV
Name:
SYNOVUS FINANCIAL CORP. (XNYS:SNV)
Sector:
178.67M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Kessel Stelling
Total Employees:
5,005
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 197.34% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SYNOVUS FINANCIAL CORP.(SNV) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
39.42
One Month Price Target:
$39.74
Six Month Price Target :
$41.31
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$43.2
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$39.2
Price Upper limit ($) :
$39.7
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$36.42
This week:
$32.72
This month :
$26.01
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.60B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
145.37M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.49%
-25.54%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$53.33
$46.94
$25.51
$31.90
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$44.86
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.50
$33.96
$35.34
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SNV
Sharpe Ratio:
1.74%
Comparison:
SNV, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 42.01% higher than the industry
& is -23.46% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SNV
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.37%
Monthly returns:
1.48%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 62.93% above industry average
Classification:
SNV, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
SNV has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.74%
Weekly Volatility:
8.36%
Monthly Volatility:
16.72%
Yearly Volatility:
57.92%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.50%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -86.52% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.60%
Weekly VaR:
-17.01%
Monthly VaR:
-34.01%
How Much Can the price of
SNV
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$27.90
This translates to price declining to:
$5.91
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SNV is a 140.04% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 105.64% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 30.89% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SNV
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.43
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.023
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.446
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.266
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.078
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.25
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.021
Beta is 39.90% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 48.24% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.86%
Sustainable growth rate is 18.94% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.048
Alpha is 317.42% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 308% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SNV
Equity cost of capital:
0.129
Equity cost of capital is 32.66% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.46%
Before-tax cost of debt:
13.44%
After-tax cost of debt:
10.62%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
10.62%
WACC is 12.30% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.73
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.19
Annual revenue growth rate is -58.14% below industry average
EPS:
$4.82
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
11.87%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -1.28% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.26
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 53.45%
Equity growth rate per share is 38.04% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$5.54
EBITDA per share
$8.12
Valuation Analysis Today of
SNV
P/E Ratio:
8.23
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.49
P/E ratio is -21.53% lower than main peers & is -33.64% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $59.81
SNV is -34.09% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $22.91
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.67
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.87
Price to sales ratio is -32.86% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.19
Price to free cash flow: 6.30
Price to free cash flow ratio is -68.77% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
43.68%
Net income growth rate is -20.68% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.54%
Dividend yeild: 3.40%
Previous Dividend: $0.34
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.34
Previous Dividend: $1.34
Expected next dividend best case: $0.35
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.33
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.33
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.30%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-15--$0.34
2021-12-15--$0.33
2021-06-16--$0.33
2022-03-16--$0.34
2021-09-15--$0.33
2021-03-17--$0.33
Dividend growth rate is -94.48% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
16.69%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-14.94%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.43%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.28%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.14% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.91
Interest coverage ratio is 1215.98% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.16%
Annual debt growth is -51% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 33.19%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.664
Statistical significance of correlation:
SNV has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 32.58% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.032
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.07
Kurtosis
8.745
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.069
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SNV
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.01%
Effective tax rate is 6.77% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.43%
Return on equity (ROE) is 29.34% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.32%
Return on assets (ROA) is -42.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.12%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
398.8K
Each employee generates 5% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
235.9K
Each employee generates 4% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
148.7K
Each employee generates 5% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
35.7K
Each employee generates -57% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.3M
Each employee generates -57% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SNV
RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS LTD. (XNYS:RNR)
THE WESTERN UNION COMPANY (XNYS:WU)
HOULIHAN LOKEY, INC. (XNYS:HLI)
REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMERICA, INCORPORATED (XNYS:RGA)
STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP. (XNYS:SF)
Bancolombia SA (XNYS:CIB)
RNR-PE
JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC (XNYS:JHG)
VOYA FINANCIAL, INC. (XNYS:VOYA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�54%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.00B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
509.38M
-
675.66M
675.66M
-
- 40830.00K
132.21M
1.66B
108.25M
105.59M
1.18B
-
744.41M
966.84M
222.43M
744.41M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
27.11M
Differed Income Tax :
1.25M
Stock Based Compensation :
8.33M
Change in Working Capital :
- 64142.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
37.74M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
181.33M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2662.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 820120.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.53B
10.46B
11.99B
-
-
-
-
386.63M
452.39M
33.48M
10.46B
-
-
11.34B
67.76B
56.42B
-
-
-
-
-
-
805.26M
-
805.26M
52.40B
51.59B
169.91M
1.82B
- 662065.0K
2.96B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
4.82B
56.42B
20.93B
805.26M
- 720602.0K
642.96M
- 854240.00K
- 1034065.00K
- 400000.00K
-
- 9671.00K
- 56142.00K
- 137804.00K
- 603617.00K
-
- 1456350.00K
1.55B
3.01B
181.33M
- 2662.00K
178.67M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SNV
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$52.24
$57.26
$62.76
$68.78
$75.38