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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Syneos Health, Inc. (XNAS:SYNH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SYNH
Name:
SYNEOS HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:SYNH)
Sector:
47.41M
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Mr. Alistair Macdonald
Total Employees:
26,751
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 19.23% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SYNEOS HEALTH, INC.(SYNH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
58.28
One Month Price Target:
$58.85
Six Month Price Target :
$61.72
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$65.16
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$58.01
Price Upper limit ($) :
$58.61
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$54.68
This week:
$50.23
This month :
$42.17
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.11B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
102.65M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.52%
-23.02%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$75.00
$67.33
$41.56
$49.23
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$64.83
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$63.20
$51.71
$53.36
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SYNH
Sharpe Ratio:
1.44%
Comparison:
SYNH, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -42.92% lower than the industry
& is -36.94% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SYNH
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.26%
Monthly returns:
1.05%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -54.89% below industry average
Classification:
SYNH, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.41
Statistical test of Returns:
SYNH has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.03%
Weekly Volatility:
6.79%
Monthly Volatility:
13.57%
Yearly Volatility:
47.02%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.69%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.23% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.18%
Weekly VaR:
-13.82%
Monthly VaR:
-27.64%
How Much Can the price of
SYNH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$44.38
This translates to price declining to:
$8.74
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SYNH is a 95.09% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 67.13% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -21.39% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SYNH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.76
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.027
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.452
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.023
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.746
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.993
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.964
Beta is 82.16% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is 48.70% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.69%
Sustainable growth rate is -85.44% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.026
Alpha is -115.53% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -165% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SYNH
Equity cost of capital:
0.152
Equity cost of capital is 35.05% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.84%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.24%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.77%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.77%
WACC is 15.42% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$52.02
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.81
Annual revenue growth rate is -84.94% below industry average
EPS:
$2.31
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
20.82%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -22.42% lower than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.14
-
-
Debt per share
$30.61
EBITDA per share
$6.17
Valuation Analysis Today of
SYNH
P/E Ratio:
21.86
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
197.33
P/E ratio is -88.92% lower than main peers & is -41.21% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $85.88
SYNH is -32.14% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.12
Price to sales ratio is -88.21% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.81
Price to free cash flow: 18.56
Price to free cash flow ratio is -44.71% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
860.02%
Net income growth rate is -476.28% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
95.17%
Net debt to equity ratio:
93.53%
Debt to assets ratio:
37.84%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.19%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -22.14% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.83
Interest coverage ratio is -131.46% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.98%
Annual debt growth is -96% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.07%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.508
Statistical significance of correlation:
SYNH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is 4.07% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.03
Kurtosis
13.709
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.658
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SYNH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
93%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.53%
Operating profit margin is -106.69% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
93%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.67%
Effective tax rate is 28.58% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.34%
Return on equity (ROE) is -65.07% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.92%
Return on assets (ROA) is -101.08% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.09
Current ratio is -78.08% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
93.6
Cash conversion cycle is 88.45% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: -103.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
7.15%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
199.6K
Each employee generates -46% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
23.7K
Each employee generates -21% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
9.1K
Each employee generates -43% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.8K
Each employee generates -181% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
240.3K
Each employee generates -181% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SYNH
NOVAVAX, INC. (XNAS:NVAX)
UNITED THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION (XNAS:UTHR)
GUARDANT HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:GH)
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (XNAS:TNDM)
JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:JAZZ)
Grifols SA (XNAS:GRFS)
XLRN
HENRY SCHEIN, INC. (XNAS:HSIC)
INTELLIA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:NTLA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.34B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.09B
1.25B
-
-
573.62M
-
239.89M
813.51M
- 179.00K
71.76M
239.89M
633.29M
402.16M
242.28M
321.64M
79.36M
242.28M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
62.20M
Differed Income Tax :
1.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
17.33M
Change in Working Capital :
- 54205.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 93855.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1619.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
70.89M
Investments in PP&E:
- 23474.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 2023.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
119.15M
-
119.15M
1.60B
-
160.79M
1.88B
441.42M
4.94B
808.93M
-
34.79M
199.84M
6.43B
-
8.30B
108.32M
65.23M
-
891.75M
657.08M
1.72B
3.14B
59.42M
3.28B
-
5.00B
1.03M
- 52627.00K
- 57364.0K
3.41B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.91B
3.30B
8.30B
-
3.21B
3.1B
-
-
- 25497.00K
- 2193.00K
-
- 149961.00K
-
115.58M
- 36572.00K
3.86M
12.68M
119.15M
106.48M
70.89M
- 23474.00K
47.41M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SYNH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$65.49
$216.52
$242.08
$270.66
$302.60