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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XNAS:SNDX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SNDX
Name:
SYNDAX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:SNDX)
Sector:
- 41931.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Briggs Morrison
Total Employees:
59
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -152.49% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SYNDAX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.(SNDX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
24.25
One Month Price Target:
$24.42
Six Month Price Target :
$25.26
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$26.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$24.1
Price Upper limit ($) :
$24.54
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.64
This week:
$18.42
This month :
$12.59
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.30B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
56.57M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
69.42%
-30.75%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.33
$30.68
$12.17
$17.82
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$28.85
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$27.64
$19.64
$20.86
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SNDX
Sharpe Ratio:
5.09%
Comparison:
SNDX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 161.99% higher than the industry
& ratio is 123.50% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SNDX
Daily returns:
0.28%
Weekly returns:
1.41%
Monthly returns:
5.65%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 168.83% above industry average
Classification:
SNDX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.55
Statistical test of Returns:
SNDX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.37%
Weekly Volatility:
12.01%
Monthly Volatility:
24.03%
Yearly Volatility:
83.23%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.73%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -49.11% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.75%
Weekly VaR:
-24.04%
Monthly VaR:
-48.08%
How Much Can the price of
SNDX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-39%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$14.73
This translates to price declining to:
$3.64
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SNDX is a 239.35% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 190.72% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 13.00% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SNDX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.24
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.758
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.071
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.948
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.806
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.151
Beta is 8.00% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 7.91% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.561
Alpha is 295.83% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3574% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SNDX
Equity cost of capital:
0.117
Equity cost of capital is 5.65% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
9.20%
After-tax cost of debt:
7.27%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
7.27%
WACC is 26.19% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.46
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.66
Annual revenue growth rate is 667.60% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.15
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.17
-
-
Debt per share
$0.30
EBITDA per share
$0.31
Valuation Analysis Today of
SNDX
P/E Ratio:
162.58
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
246.47
P/E ratio is -34.04% lower than main peers & is 81.19% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $13.46
SNDX is 80.17% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
9.85
Price to sales ratio is -75.69% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.66
Price to free cash flow: 146.75
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-116.46%
Net income growth rate is -264.99% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
4.57%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-44.79%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.06%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-39.73%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -90.38% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.02
Interest coverage ratio is -107.63% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is -174% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.304
Statistical significance of correlation:
SNDX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -10.64% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.039
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.123
Kurtosis
47.195
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
3.237
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SNDX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.86%
Operating profit margin is -102.77% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.13%
Return on equity (ROE) is -107.21% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.67%
Return on assets (ROA) is -117.97% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
13.75
Current ratio is 69.85% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
22.47%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.4M
Each employee generates 47% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
295.8K
Each employee generates -23% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
262.4K
Each employee generates 105% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 710.7K
Each employee generates -583% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
36.7K
Each employee generates -583% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 74.97%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2189.77% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SNDX
Gracell Biotechnologies Inc (XNAS:GRCL)
Prometheus Biosciences, Inc. (XNAS:RXDX)
THE JOINT CORP. (XNAS:JYNT)
TCR2 THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:TCRR)
Surmodics, Inc. (XNAS:SRDX)
BICYCLE THERAPEUTICS PLC (XNAS:BCYC)
ANNEXON, INC. (XNAS:ANNX)
XENON PHARMACEUTICALS INC. (XNAS:XENE)
ANAVEX LIFE SCIENCES CORP. (XNAS:AVXL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�17%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
139.33M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
96.40M
26.41M
26.41M
-
-
122.81M
507.00K
1.93M
38.00K
17.45M
16.53M
15.48M
15.48M
-
15.48M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.48M
Change in Working Capital :
- 8273.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
22.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 41931.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 42266.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
188.77M
222.14M
410.91M
158.00K
-
8.99M
420.06M
1.14M
-
-
-
-
1.03M
2.17M
-
422.22M
8.23M
3.90M
-
-
18.42M
30.55M
17.12M
-
17.12M
-
47.67M
6.00K
- 580871.00K
- 640.0K
956.05M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
122.81M
374.55M
422.22M
-
21.02M
- 167752.0K
50.45M
-
8.18M
-
-
-
-
557.00K
557.00K
-
- 33192.00K
188.89M
222.08M
- 41931.00K
-
- 41931.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SNDX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$31.76
$34.42
$37.29
$40.41
$43.78