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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Synaptics Incorporated (XNAS:SYNA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SYNA
Name:
SYNAPTICS INCORPORATED (XNAS:SYNA)
Sector:
53.60M
Industry:
Semiconductors
CEO:
Mr. Michael Hurlston
Total Employees:
1,775
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 341.90% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SYNAPTICS INCORPORATED(SYNA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTORS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
112.88
One Month Price Target:
$113.83
Six Month Price Target :
$118.61
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$124.34
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$112.38
Price Upper limit ($) :
$113.73
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$104.88
This week:
$94.98
This month :
$77.09
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.38B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
39.63M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.58%
-17.04%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$149.98
$132.72
$75.78
$93.04
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$127.09
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$123.41
$98.62
$102.35
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SYNA
Sharpe Ratio:
4.20%
Comparison:
SYNA, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 35.71% higher than the industry
& ratio is 84.35% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SYNA
Daily returns:
0.16%
Weekly returns:
0.79%
Monthly returns:
3.14%
Yearly returns:
31.95%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 18.06% above industry average
Classification:
SYNA, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.88
Statistical test of Returns:
SYNA has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.53%
Weekly Volatility:
7.89%
Monthly Volatility:
15.78%
Yearly Volatility:
54.67%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.15%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -67.35% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.09%
Weekly VaR:
-15.86%
Monthly VaR:
-31.71%
How Much Can the price of
SYNA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$83.27
This translates to price declining to:
$16.93
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SYNA is a 123.81% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 91.74% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -0.56% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SYNA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.51
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.878
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.242
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.129
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.362
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.689
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.622
Beta is -6.87% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.41
Beta is 7.09% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
21.25%
Sustainable growth rate is -23.17% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.242
Alpha is 26.56% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1542% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SYNA
Equity cost of capital:
0.135
Equity cost of capital is 5.35% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.09%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.57%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.57%
WACC is 11.38% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$40.14
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.47
Annual revenue growth rate is -165.35% below industry average
EPS:
$4.76
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$9.98
-
-
Debt per share
$10.55
EBITDA per share
$10.40
Valuation Analysis Today of
SYNA
P/E Ratio:
17.82
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
42.66
P/E ratio is -58.22% lower than main peers & is -57.03% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $197.43
SYNA is -42.83% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.81
Price to sales ratio is -65.41% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.47
Price to free cash flow: 11.31
Price to free cash flow ratio is -57.85% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-163.04%
Net income growth rate is 184.62% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
41.77%
Net debt to equity ratio:
7.98%
Debt to assets ratio:
23.47%
Net debt to assets ratio:
4.48%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -39.79% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.69
Interest coverage ratio is -58.24% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
50.62%
Annual debt growth is -45% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 54.72%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.652
Statistical significance of correlation:
SYNA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.627
Stock price is 3.96% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.627
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.012
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.024
Kurtosis
3.497
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.405
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SYNA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
213%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.42%
Operating profit margin is -25.95% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
213%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.15%
Effective tax rate is 26.90% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
19.33%
Return on equity (ROE) is -32.39% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.86%
Return on assets (ROA) is -17.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
2.47
Current ratio is -39.20% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
25.6
Cash conversion cycle is -53.67% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
10.95%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
896.4K
Each employee generates 45% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
232.2K
Each employee generates 0% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
109.1K
Each employee generates -32% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
30.2K
Each employee generates 9% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
581.9K
Each employee generates 9% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 3.60%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -74.55% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SYNA
ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:AZPN)
PFPT
Gitlab Inc. (XNAS:GTLB)
LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION (XNAS:LSCC)
MONDAY.COM LTD (XNAS:MNDY)
Amdocs Limited (XNAS:DOX)
MKS INSTRUMENTS, INC. (XNAS:MKSI)
dLocal Ltd (XNAS:DLO)
CREE
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�25%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�8%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/26/22
Revenue:
1.59B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
743.30M
847.80M
350.90M
-
163.40M
-
38.20M
552.50M
-
30.10M
141.10M
412.10M
277.20M
193.60M
247.00M
47.30M
193.60M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
30.40M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1400.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
21.20M
Change in Working Capital :
- 45000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 41400.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 12300.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
12.90M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
58.30M
Investments in PP&E:
- 4700.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/25/21
2022
Q1
347.30M
-
347.30M
269.70M
88.70M
43.70M
749.40M
92.10M
570.00M
276.30M
-
-
94.40M
1.03B
-
1.78B
109.70M
8.90M
18.00M
53.70M
131.20M
303.50M
418.30M
36.90M
477.30M
-
780.80M
100.00K
821.20M
-
180.10M
September 25, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.30B
1.00B
1.78B
-
427.20M
79.9M
-
-
- 4700.00K
- 505600.00K
7.80M
-
-
- 44300.00K
- 542100.00K
- 500.00K
- 489000.00K
347.30M
836.30M
58.30M
- 4700.00K
53.60M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SYNA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$149.68
$164.87
$181.61
$200.04
$220.34