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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sylvamo Corporation (XNYS:SLVM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SLVM
Name:
SYLVAMO CORPORATION (XNYS:SLVM)
Sector:
73.00M
Industry:
Paper & Paper Products
CEO:
Total Employees:
7,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SYLVAMO CORPORATION(SLVM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PAPER & PAPER PRODUCTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
42.79
One Month Price Target:
$42.85
Six Month Price Target :
$43.16
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$43.53
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$42.45
Price Upper limit ($) :
$43.38
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$39.67
This week:
$35.81
This month :
$28.83
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.78B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
44.13M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.%
-15.12%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.24
$50.39
$28.34
$35.19
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$48.16
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.69
$37.40
$38.89
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SLVM
Sharpe Ratio:
7.69%
Comparison:
SLVM, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 0.00% lower than the industry
& ratio is 237.59% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SLVM
Daily returns:
0.29%
Weekly returns:
1.47%
Monthly returns:
5.86%
Yearly returns:
70.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 0.00% below industry average
Classification:
SLVM, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.3
Statistical test of Returns:
SLVM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.69%
Weekly Volatility:
8.26%
Monthly Volatility:
16.52%
Yearly Volatility:
57.24%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.30%
Weekly VaR:
-16.31%
Monthly VaR:
-32.63%
How Much Can the price of
SLVM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$31.89
This translates to price declining to:
$6.42
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SLVM is a 130.27% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 97.27% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.00% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SLVM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.26
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.065
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.064
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.079
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-
-
Average Industry Beta:
0.256
Beta is 0.00% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
16.93%
Sustainable growth rate is 0.00% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.655
Alpha is 0.00% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4167% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SLVM
Equity cost of capital:
0.049
Equity cost of capital is 0.00% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.25%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.07%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.06%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.06%
WACC is 0.00% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$82.78
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.7
FALSE
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-4.09%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 0.00% lower than the Paper & Paper Products industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$10.81
-
-
Debt per share
$30.39
EBITDA per share
$10.97
Valuation Analysis Today of
SLVM
P/E Ratio:
6.43
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
- & is -13.23% lower than the industry
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.52
Price to sales ratio is -10.89% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.7
Price to free cash flow: 3.96
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-11.78%
Net income growth rate is 0.00% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.26%
Previous Dividend: $0.11
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.11
Previous Dividend: $0.11
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.11
-
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$0.11
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
405.14%
Net debt to equity ratio:
343.50%
Debt to assets ratio:
49.50%
Net debt to assets ratio:
41.97%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -46.77% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
484
Interest coverage ratio is 2727.49% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
5284.62%
Annual debt growth is 0% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.54%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.049
Statistical significance of correlation:
SLVM does not have a has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.049
Stock price is 0.00% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.049
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.031
Kurtosis
4.684
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.595
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SLVM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
131%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.32%
Operating profit margin is 57.32% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
131%
Effective Tax Rate:
27.94%
Effective tax rate is 75.72% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
74.02%
Return on equity (ROE) is 337.16% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.04%
Return on assets (ROA) is 14.57% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
1.71
Current ratio is 16.81% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-14.2
Cash conversion cycle is -117.80% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.63%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
487.1K
Each employee generates 0% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
64.5K
Each employee generates 0% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
32.7K
Each employee generates 0% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
9.7K
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
204.8K
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SLVM
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.65B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.45B
1.20B
-
-
579.00M
579.00M
171.00M
750.00M
-
1.00M
143.00M
484.00M
450.00M
245.00M
340.00M
95.00M
245.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
34.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 36000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
30.00M
Other Working Capital:
21.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
68.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
92.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 19000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
229.00M
-
229.00M
512.00M
376.00M
56.00M
1.17B
859.00M
151.00M
-
-
-
526.00M
1.54B
-
2.71B
435.00M
25.00M
-
-
227.00M
687.00M
1.34B
145.00M
1.69B
-
2.38B
44.00M
1.96B
- 1680000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.20B
331.00M
2.71B
-
1.37B
1.1B
-
-
- 19000.00K
- 35000.00K
-
-
-
- 4000.00K
- 39000.00K
15.00M
49.00M
229.00M
180.00M
92.00M
- 19000.00K
73.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SLVM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$32.65
$33.21
$33.78
$34.36
$34.95