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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Svb Financial Group (XNAS:SIVB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SIVB
Name:
SVB FINANCIAL GROUP (XNAS:SIVB)
Sector:
359.00M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Gregory Becker
Total Employees:
7,743
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -703.19% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SVB FINANCIAL GROUP(SIVB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
395.1
One Month Price Target:
$398.91
Six Month Price Target :
$417.97
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$440.83
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$393.33
Price Upper limit ($) :
$397.9
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$367.99
This week:
$334.49
This month :
$273.88
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
22.67B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
59.08M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.39%
-17.15%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$520.78
$462.48
$269.42
$327.72
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$443.50
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$431.05
$346.54
$359.15
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SIVB
Sharpe Ratio:
3.59%
Comparison:
SIVB, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 192.44% higher than the industry
& ratio is 57.61% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SIVB
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.66%
Monthly returns:
2.62%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 188.47% above industry average
Classification:
SIVB, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.61
Statistical test of Returns:
SIVB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.40%
Weekly Volatility:
7.61%
Monthly Volatility:
15.22%
Yearly Volatility:
52.74%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.09%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -67.88% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.86%
Weekly VaR:
-15.34%
Monthly VaR:
-30.68%
How Much Can the price of
SIVB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$293.86
This translates to price declining to:
$59.27
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SIVB is a 116.54% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 85.51% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 19.17% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SIVB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.72
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.132
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.601
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.535
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.225
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.069
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.319
Beta is 30.63% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 78.74% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
14.08%
Sustainable growth rate is 54.22% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.165
Alpha is 1324.53% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1052% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SIVB
Equity cost of capital:
0.149
Equity cost of capital is 53.30% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
13.32%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.30%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.40%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.40%
WACC is 28.72% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$95.05
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.43
Annual revenue growth rate is 269.10% above the industry average
EPS:
$29.47
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
12.58%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 4.65% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$33.10
-
-
Debt per share
$43.52
EBITDA per share
$47.80
Valuation Analysis Today of
SIVB
P/E Ratio:
15.21
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.45
P/E ratio is 13.07% higher than main peers & is 22.59% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $365.68
SIVB is 8.04% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.16
Price to sales ratio is -2.81% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.43
Price to free cash flow: 11.94
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
73.08%
Net income growth rate is 32.69% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.43%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
16.09%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-109.90%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.17%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-7.97%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.30% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
21.56
Interest coverage ratio is 2501.03% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
174.00%
Annual debt growth is 54841% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.72
Statistical significance of correlation:
SIVB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 43.77% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.001
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.002
Kurtosis
3.561
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.164
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SIVB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.28%
Operating profit margin is -71.30% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.01%
Effective tax rate is 11.45% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.06%
Return on equity (ROE) is -7.26% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.80%
Return on assets (ROA) is -65.18% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
105.04
Current ratio is 75.25% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.88%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
725.3K
Each employee generates 91% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
364.7K
Each employee generates 61% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
228.3K
Each employee generates 61% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
46.4K
Each employee generates -44% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
107.3K
Each employee generates -44% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SIVB
T. ROWE PRICE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:TROW)
FIFTH THIRD BANCORP (XNAS:FITB)
Nasdaq, Inc. (XNAS:NDAQ)
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company (XNAS:WTW)
HBANN
NORTHERN TRUST CORPORATION (XNAS:NTRS)
GRAB HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:GRAB)
HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INCORPORATED (XNAS:HBAN)
ANZU SPECIAL ACQUISITION I UNT (XNAS:ANZUU)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�38%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.62B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
2.62B
-
1.64B
1.64B
-
-
-
3.73B
131.00M
279.05M
2.82B
-
1.77B
2.69B
646.00M
1.77B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
159.00M
Differed Income Tax :
47.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
51.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 431000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
4.00M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
359.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
41.00M
Purchases of Investments:
- 5771000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
20.61B
25.99B
46.60B
3.09B
-
-
49.69B
302.00M
375.00M
154.00M
101.31B
-
- 101312000.00K
831.00M
171.50B
220.36B
-
473.00M
-
-
-
473.00M
2.57B
200.95B
203.52B
-
204.00B
-
7.91B
- 760000.0K
8.83B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
15.98B
219.98B
127.30B
3.04B
- 17562000.0K
41.00M
2.49B
- 3200000.00K
-
-
-
- 43000.00K
8.87B
8.83B
-
5.99B
20.61B
14.62B
359.00M
-
359.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SIVB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$513.29
$572.70
$638.99
$712.95
$795.47