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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sutro Biopharma, Inc. (XNAS:STRO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
STRO
Name:
SUTRO BIOPHARMA, INC. (XNAS:STRO)
Sector:
- 36808.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. William Newell
Total Employees:
242
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 9.55% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SUTRO BIOPHARMA, INC.(STRO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
5.76
One Month Price Target:
$5.79
Six Month Price Target :
$5.94
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$6.12
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$5.71
Price Upper limit ($) :
$5.81
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.16
This week:
$4.42
This month :
$3.08
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
290.02M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
52.16M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
33.24%
-39.31%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.54
$7.27
$2.98
$4.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$6.86
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.59
$4.66
$4.93
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
STRO
Sharpe Ratio:
0.54%
Comparison:
STRO, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -72.05% lower than the industry
& is -76.16% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
STRO
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.18%
Monthly returns:
0.73%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -65.31% below industry average
Classification:
STRO, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.34
Statistical test of Returns:
STRO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.08%
Weekly Volatility:
11.36%
Monthly Volatility:
22.72%
Yearly Volatility:
78.70%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.91%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -42.64% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.40%
Weekly VaR:
-23.25%
Monthly VaR:
-46.50%
How Much Can the price of
STRO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-41%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.42
This translates to price declining to:
$0.86
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
STRO is a 228.17% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 181.15% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.86% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
STRO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.93
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.798
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.128
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.994
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.269
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.314
Beta is -29.52% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -19.61% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.007
Alpha is -105.24% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -47% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
STRO
Equity cost of capital:
0.095
Equity cost of capital is -14.01% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.01%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.17%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.17%
WACC is -8.65% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.02
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.36
Annual revenue growth rate is -112.49% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.47
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-1.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -119.63% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.85
EBITDA per share
-$2.05
Valuation Analysis Today of
STRO
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
587.35
-
-
STRO is -102.60% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.66
Price to sales ratio is -86.04% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.36
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-47.17%
Net income growth rate is -166.83% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
20.15%
Net debt to equity ratio:
13.19%
Debt to assets ratio:
14.62%
Net debt to assets ratio:
9.57%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -65.32% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-46.08
Interest coverage ratio is -61.06% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
16.88%
Annual debt growth is -88% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.36
Statistical significance of correlation:
STRO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 5.74% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.067
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.198
Kurtosis
11.53
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.11
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
STRO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-223.37%
Operating profit margin is -47.89% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-51.86%
Return on equity (ROE) is -9.54% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-37.64%
Return on assets (ROA) is 84.46% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
5.9
Current ratio is -27.10% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.10%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
219.5K
Each employee generates -86% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 442.5K
Each employee generates -215% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 472.3K
Each employee generates -469% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 152.1K
Each employee generates -203% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
309.6K
Each employee generates -203% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 35.65%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1093.77% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
STRO
AMPHASTAR PHARMACEUTICALS INC (XNAS:AMPH)
Connect Biopharma Holdings Ltd (XNAS:CNTB)
IKENA ONCOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:IKNA)
OPTIMIZERX CORPORATION (XNAS:OPRX)
VIEWRAY, INC. (XNAS:VRAY)
MESOBLAST LIMITED (XNAS:MESO)
ORIC PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ORIC)
Trean Insurance Group Inc (XNAS:TIG)
VAXCYTE, INC. (XNAS:PCVX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
53.12M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
10.65M
111.83M
59.94M
59.94M
-
-
171.76M
496.00K
2.32M
4.88M
- 107085.00K
- 118647.00K
- 114289.00K
- 114289.00K
-
- 114289.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.33M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
6.97M
Change in Working Capital :
- 5223.00K
Accounts Receivables:
768.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 5226.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
777.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 35255.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1553.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 10994.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
28.90M
180.24M
209.15M
11.69M
-
7.91M
228.74M
51.66M
-
-
20.70M
-
2.58M
74.93M
-
303.68M
10.71M
13.58M
-
6.28M
8.20M
38.76M
44.40M
147.00K
44.54M
-
83.30M
47.00K
- 372521.00K
- 1152.0K
594.00M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
171.76M
220.37M
303.68M
200.94M
57.97M
29.1M
45.53M
-
32.98M
-
-
-
-
760.00K
760.00K
-
- 1513.00K
29.77M
31.29M
- 35255.00K
- 1553.00K
- 36808.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
STRO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$6.14
$6.52
$6.93
$7.36
$7.82