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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Surmodics, Inc. (XNAS:SRDX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SRDX
Name:
Surmodics, Inc. (XNAS:SRDX)
Sector:
- 7026.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. Gary Maharaj
Total Employees:
389
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1352.53% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SURMODICS, INC.(SRDX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
31.25
One Month Price Target:
$31.42
Six Month Price Target :
$32.25
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$33.25
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$31.1
Price Upper limit ($) :
$31.41
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$29.39
This week:
$27.1
This month :
$22.95
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
429.39M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
14.01M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.03%
-13.71%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.87
$35.94
$22.63
$26.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$34.67
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.83
$27.82
$28.67
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SRDX
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.02%
Comparison:
SRDX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -101.51% lower than the industry
& is -101.01% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SRDX
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.04%
Monthly returns:
0.16%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -87.21% below industry average
Classification:
SRDX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.65
Statistical test of Returns:
SRDX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.90%
Weekly Volatility:
6.47%
Monthly Volatility:
12.95%
Yearly Volatility:
44.85%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.71%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -6.48% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.94%
Weekly VaR:
-13.28%
Monthly VaR:
-26.56%
How Much Can the price of
SRDX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-91.99%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.94
This translates to price declining to:
$2.50
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SRDX is a 87.43% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 60.57% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.78% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SRDX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.95
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.63
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.891
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.7
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.502
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.749
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.157
Beta is -17.67% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is -10.51% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
1.21%
Sustainable growth rate is -90.68% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.077
Alpha is -256.97% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -491% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SRDX
Equity cost of capital:
0.097
Equity cost of capital is -7.34% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.11%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.20%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.53%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.53%
WACC is 19.70% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.92
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.2
Annual revenue growth rate is -93.68% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.75
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-40.51%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -449.82% lower than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
-$0.07
Valuation Analysis Today of
SRDX
P/E Ratio:
344.1
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
155.72
P/E ratio is 120.98% higher than main peers & is 41.29% higher than the industry
-
SRDX is -117.11% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.51
Price to sales ratio is -51.51% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.2
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-190.86%
Net income growth rate is -296.51% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
35.26%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-12.18%
Debt to assets ratio:
26.07%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-9.01%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -32.71% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-2.86
Interest coverage ratio is -121.41% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3043.58%
Annual debt growth is 1158% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.371
Statistical significance of correlation:
SRDX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is -20.72% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.045
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.076
Kurtosis
8.044
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.628
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SRDX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
174%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-11.57%
Operating profit margin is -32.26% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
174%
Effective Tax Rate:
-2.50%
Effective tax rate is -104.55% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-7.66%
Return on equity (ROE) is -21.86% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-5.66%
Return on assets (ROA) is 68.01% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.53
Current ratio is -60.84% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
29
Cash conversion cycle is -48.06% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-16.04%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
249.2K
Each employee generates -34% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 2.3K
Each employee generates -138% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 26.9K
Each employee generates -9% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 18.1K
Each employee generates 27% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
308.4K
Each employee generates 27% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -100.00%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 76162.05% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SRDX
BICYCLE THERAPEUTICS PLC (XNAS:BCYC)
ANNEXON, INC. (XNAS:ANNX)
THE JOINT CORP. (XNAS:JYNT)
Gracell Biotechnologies Inc (XNAS:GRCL)
SYNDAX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:SNDX)
BIOXCEL THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:BTAI)
Prometheus Biosciences, Inc. (XNAS:RXDX)
Merus NV (XNAS:MRUS)
TCR2 THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:TCRR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
96.95M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
55.56M
41.40M
2.56M
-
36.05M
-
17.44M
56.05M
-
320.00K
8.95M
- 914.00K
- 11214.00K
- 10471.00K
- 11593.00K
290.00K
- 10471.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.38M
Differed Income Tax :
- 640.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.68M
Change in Working Capital :
- 7802.00K
Accounts Receivables:
1.55M
Other Working Capital:
- 1320.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
172.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 7026.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 782.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
26.65M
5.69M
32.34M
8.01M
8.29M
16.27M
64.92M
29.32M
44.90M
35.24M
-
6.37M
4.12M
119.95M
-
184.87M
1.85M
10.00M
1.92M
4.43M
9.37M
25.64M
-
10.71M
22.55M
-
48.20M
699.00K
113.25M
75.0K
136.67M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
107.11M
136.67M
184.87M
-
10.00M
- 16650.0K
4.00M
-
3.22M
3.00K
230.00K
-
-
- 856.00K
- 623.00K
- 72.00K
- 4503.00K
26.65M
31.15M
- 7026.00K
- 782.00K
- 7026.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SRDX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$33.35
$35.49
$37.76
$40.18
$42.75