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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Surgery Partners, Inc. (XNAS:SGRY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SGRY
Name:
SURGERY PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:SGRY)
Sector:
61.60M
Industry:
Medical Care Facilities
CEO:
Mr. J. Eric Evans
Total Employees:
8,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -158.30% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SURGERY PARTNERS, INC.(SGRY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL CARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
26.28
One Month Price Target:
$26.71
Six Month Price Target :
$28.85
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$31.42
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$26.1
Price Upper limit ($) :
$26.58
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$23.45
This week:
$19.95
This month :
$13.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.43B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
89.94M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
47.47%
-26.76%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.41
$33.31
$13.15
$19.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$31.32
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.02
$21.22
$22.54
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SGRY
Sharpe Ratio:
3.98%
Comparison:
SGRY, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 79.17% higher than the industry
& ratio is 74.77% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SGRY
Daily returns:
0.22%
Weekly returns:
1.11%
Monthly returns:
4.44%
Yearly returns:
23.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 131.71% above industry average
Classification:
SGRY, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.36
Statistical test of Returns:
SGRY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.35%
Weekly Volatility:
11.97%
Monthly Volatility:
23.95%
Yearly Volatility:
82.96%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.37%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -18.34% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.78%
Weekly VaR:
-24.09%
Monthly VaR:
-48.19%
How Much Can the price of
SGRY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-40%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.75
This translates to price declining to:
$3.94
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SGRY is a 240.11% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 191.37% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 60.51% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SGRY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.91
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.438
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
2.034
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.819
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.885
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.517
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.04
Beta is 179.80% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.067
Beta is 172.74% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.302
Alpha is 140.86% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1924% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SGRY
Equity cost of capital:
0.231
Equity cost of capital is 120.72% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.50%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.59%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.20%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.20%
WACC is 87.21% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$25.67
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1
Annual revenue growth rate is -136.85% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.54
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-20.98%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -255.89% lower than the Medical Care Facilities industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.58
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 823.54% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$36.66
EBITDA per share
$3.07
Valuation Analysis Today of
SGRY
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
808.27
-
-
SGRY is -169.17% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.02
Price to sales ratio is -51.66% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1
Price to free cash flow: 45.15
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-77.14%
Net income growth rate is -150.26% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
284.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
260.28%
Debt to assets ratio:
52.43%
Net debt to assets ratio:
48.04%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -2.87% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1.23
Interest coverage ratio is -93.82% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-8.10%
Annual debt growth is -108% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.51%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.384
Statistical significance of correlation:
SGRY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.432
Stock price is -11.10% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.432
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.034
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.105
Kurtosis
15.589
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.447
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SGRY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
89%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.65%
Operating profit margin is -305.13% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
89%
Effective Tax Rate:
10.15%
Effective tax rate is -53.51% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-3.25%
Return on equity (ROE) is -118.21% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.60%
Return on assets (ROA) is -113.72% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.1x
Current Ratio:
1.73
Current ratio is -6.14% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
47.6
Cash conversion cycle is 76.01% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-9.81%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
278.2K
Each employee generates -20% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
33.2K
Each employee generates -40% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 4.5K
Each employee generates -116% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
7.4K
Each employee generates 8% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
644.9K
Each employee generates 8% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SGRY
LHC GROUP, INC. (XNAS:LHCG)
CERTARA, INC. (XNAS:CERT)
PROGYNY, INC. (XNAS:PGNY)
STAAR SURGICAL COMPANY (XNAS:STAA)
ALKERMES PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:ALKS)
INARI MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:NARI)
APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:APLS)
IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:IONS)
HEALTHEQUITY, INC. (XNAS:HQY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.31B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.80B
512.70M
-
106.70M
106.70M
-
73.70M
180.40M
-
224.00M
77.82M
275.72M
338.30M
- 37700.00K
114.30M
11.60M
- 37700.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
27.40M
Differed Income Tax :
1.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
3.70M
Change in Working Capital :
- 8800.00K
Accounts Receivables:
2.00M
Other Working Capital:
- 10800.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
13.70M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
79.80M
Investments in PP&E:
- 18200.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 19600.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
378.90M
-
378.90M
412.40M
62.90M
82.80M
937.00M
1.06B
-
3.97B
94.50M
113.90M
120.00M
5.35B
-
6.29B
122.90M
103.20M
-
46.50M
269.70M
542.30M
3.30B
95.80M
3.39B
-
3.94B
900.00K
- 490500.00K
25.3M
1.63B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.98B
1.16B
5.10B
-
3.40B
3.0B
-
- 9300.00K
- 47100.00K
- 17000.00K
-
-
-
- 26700.00K
- 43700.00K
-
- 11000.00K
378.90M
389.90M
79.80M
- 18200.00K
61.60M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SGRY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$31.52
$37.68
$45.05
$53.87
$64.40