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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sunrun Inc. (XNAS:RUN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RUN
Name:
SUNRUN INC. (XNAS:RUN)
Sector:
- 683510.00K
Industry:
Solar
CEO:
Ms. Lynn Jurich
Total Employees:
11,383
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 166.22% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SUNRUN INC.(RUN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOLAR INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
31.41
One Month Price Target:
$31.81
Six Month Price Target :
$33.81
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$36.22
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$31.21
Price Upper limit ($) :
$31.78
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$28.06
This week:
$23.92
This month :
$16.42
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.02B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
212.10M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.97%
-22.39%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.94
$39.69
$15.88
$23.13
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$37.33
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.78
$25.47
$27.04
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RUN
Sharpe Ratio:
4.84%
Comparison:
RUN, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -24.71% lower than the industry
& ratio is 112.43% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RUN
Daily returns:
0.27%
Weekly returns:
1.33%
Monthly returns:
5.33%
Yearly returns:
78.67%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -18.65% below industry average
Classification:
RUN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.55
Statistical test of Returns:
RUN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.33%
Weekly Volatility:
11.91%
Monthly Volatility:
23.81%
Yearly Volatility:
82.50%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.14%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -59.84% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.67%
Weekly VaR:
-23.86%
Monthly VaR:
-47.72%
How Much Can the price of
RUN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-39%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.12
This translates to price declining to:
$4.71
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RUN is a 236.78% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 188.52% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 9.58% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RUN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.28
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.36
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.923
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.042
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.62
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.083
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.392
Beta is 63.70% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.792
Beta is 27.12% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.452
Alpha is -28.46% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2880% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RUN
Equity cost of capital:
0.188
Equity cost of capital is 21.58% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.58%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.60%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.64%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.64%
WACC is 13.43% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.35
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.87
Annual revenue growth rate is -84.62% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.69
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$34.27
EBITDA per share
$2.94
Valuation Analysis Today of
RUN
P/E Ratio:
1846.5
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
500.48
P/E ratio is 268.94% higher than main peers & is 1252.92% higher than the industry
-
RUN is -133.35% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.76
Price to sales ratio is -21.76% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.87
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-259.90%
Net income growth rate is 0.62% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
116.05%
Net debt to equity ratio:
109.79%
Debt to assets ratio:
42.13%
Net debt to assets ratio:
39.86%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -29.04% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1.81
Interest coverage ratio is -68.49% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
43.27%
Annual debt growth is -53% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.19%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.489
Statistical significance of correlation:
RUN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.47
Stock price is 4.04% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.47
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.057
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.176
Kurtosis
2.919
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.381
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RUN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
57%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-37.78%
Operating profit margin is -604.04% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
57%
Effective Tax Rate:
-2.20%
Effective tax rate is -126.76% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-2.29%
Return on equity (ROE) is -97.44% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.83%
Return on assets (ROA) is -112.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.6
Current ratio is -42.97% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-10.5
Cash conversion cycle is -120.03% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 14.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-27.35%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
155.6K
Each employee generates -64% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
54.9K
Each employee generates -17% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 12.6K
Each employee generates -150% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 60.0K
Each employee generates 111% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.4M
Each employee generates 111% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 18.50%
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
RUN
COHERENT, INC. (XNAS:COHR)
EURONET WORLDWIDE, INC. (XNAS:EEFT)
NUTANIX, INC. (XNAS:NTNX)
HANCOCK WHITNEY CORPORATION (XNAS:HWCPZ)
The Descartes Systems Group Inc. (XNAS:DSGX)
CYBERARK SOFTWARE LTD. (XNAS:CYBR)
ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS, INC (XNAS:ALGM)
FRESHWORKS INC. (XNAS:FRSH)
Braze, Inc. (XNAS:BRZE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.77B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.52B
248.20M
23.55M
216.62M
888.40M
671.77M
5.37M
917.31M
-
345.68M
402.25M
624.64M
- 669112.00K
- 143412.00K
- 912557.00K
20.12M
- 143412.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
106.11M
Differed Income Tax :
- 3277.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
39.22M
Change in Working Capital :
- 142821.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 57232.00K
Other Working Capital:
27.74M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 99171.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 256409.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 427101.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 75000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
629.16M
-
629.16M
200.55M
555.95M
323.69M
1.71B
9.93B
4.28B
11.55M
186.10M
-
1.14B
15.55B
-
17.26B
385.27M
237.44M
-
113.65M
333.56M
1.07B
7.27B
355.11M
8.50B
-
9.57B
21.00K
- 90357.00K
- 4601.0K
6.36B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.44B
6.26B
15.84B
-
7.51B
6.9B
-
-
- 502101.00K
- 317950.00K
-
-
-
1.09B
770.69M
-
12.18M
862.62M
850.43M
- 256409.00K
- 427101.00K
- 683510.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RUN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$36.33
$41.90
$48.31
$55.71
$64.24