_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sunpower Corporation (XNAS:SPWR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SPWR
Name:
SUNPOWER CORPORATION (XNAS:SPWR)
Sector:
- 118907.00K
Industry:
Solar
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Werner
Total Employees:
3,660
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -166.90% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SUNPOWER CORPORATION(SPWR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOLAR INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
22.84
One Month Price Target:
$23.1
Six Month Price Target :
$24.41
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$25.98
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.71
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.13
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$20.38
This week:
$17.34
This month :
$11.85
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.98B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
174.09M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.86%
-19.53%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.22
$28.86
$11.46
$16.82
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$27.11
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.97
$18.55
$19.71
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SPWR
Sharpe Ratio:
6.64%
Comparison:
SPWR, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 3.22% higher than the industry
& ratio is 191.23% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SPWR
Daily returns:
0.37%
Weekly returns:
1.84%
Monthly returns:
7.37%
Yearly returns:
78.67%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 12.42% above industry average
Classification:
SPWR, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.17
Statistical test of Returns:
SPWR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.42%
Weekly Volatility:
12.12%
Monthly Volatility:
24.23%
Yearly Volatility:
83.94%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.42%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.88% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.76%
Weekly VaR:
-24.06%
Monthly VaR:
-48.12%
How Much Can the price of
SPWR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$14.09
This translates to price declining to:
$3.43
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SPWR is a 239.61% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 190.95% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 11.50% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SPWR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.04
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.135
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.605
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.884
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.522
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.423
Beta is 43.72% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.792
Beta is 14.08% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
90.24%
Sustainable growth rate is 121.05% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.713
Alpha is 12.72% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4538% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SPWR
Equity cost of capital:
0.172
Equity cost of capital is 11.21% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
15.80%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.59%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.63%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.63%
WACC is 14.07% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.85
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
11.06
Annual revenue growth rate is -156.94% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.09
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.15
EBITDA per share
$0.12
Valuation Analysis Today of
SPWR
P/E Ratio:
887.53
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
177.86
P/E ratio is 399.00% higher than main peers & is 550.29% higher than the industry
-
SPWR is -285.94% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.91
Price to sales ratio is -39.52% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
11.06
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-145.81%
Net income growth rate is -43.55% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
7.40%
Net debt to equity ratio:
119.23%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.69%
Net debt to assets ratio:
27.22%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.15% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
0.82
Interest coverage ratio is -85.71% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-32.33%
Annual debt growth is -135% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 47.42%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.443
Statistical significance of correlation:
SPWR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.47
Stock price is -5.71% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.47
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.04
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.127
Kurtosis
1.899
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.243
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SPWR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
72%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-2.54%
Operating profit margin is -133.87% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
72%
Effective Tax Rate:
-15.48%
Effective tax rate is -287.90% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-4.70%
Return on equity (ROE) is -94.74% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.07%
Return on assets (ROA) is -116.46% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.1
Current ratio is -60.80% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-3.8
Cash conversion cycle is -107.32% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 14.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-32.22%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
373.6K
Each employee generates -13% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
5.9K
Each employee generates -91% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 4.6K
Each employee generates -118% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 32.5K
Each employee generates 14% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
112.3K
Each employee generates 14% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -66.85%
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SPWR
FORMFACTOR, INC. (XNAS:FORM)
VERINT SYSTEMS INC. (XNAS:VRNT)
KINGSOFT CLOUD HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:KC)
FLYWIRE CORPORATION (XNAS:FLYW)
SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION (XNAS:SIMO)
BLACKBAUD, INC. (XNAS:BLKB)
Cerence Inc. (XNAS:CRNC)
KULICKE AND SOFFA INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:KLIC)
KNOWBE4, INC. (XNAS:KNBE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�33%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/3/22
Revenue:
1.37B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.12B
244.04M
17.07M
-
261.51M
-
- 902.00K
277.67M
278.00K
26.16M
13.32M
21.44M
- 34714.00K
- 16844.00K
7.75M
- 1200.00K
- 16844.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.67M
Differed Income Tax :
- 13750.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
5.43M
Change in Working Capital :
- 76888.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 12354.00K
Other Working Capital:
22.07M
Other Non-Cash Items:
256.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 108750.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 8636.00K
Net Acquisitions:
142.68M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/3/22
2022
Q1
142.25M
308.84M
451.09M
160.56M
245.61M
302.64M
1.16B
117.38M
126.34M
24.78M
16.34M
-
126.05M
410.88M
-
1.57B
179.07M
543.29M
5.53M
66.13M
267.72M
1.06B
26.55M
68.35M
154.91M
-
1.21B
174.00K
- 2150083.00K
11.2M
2.50B
April 3, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.40B
358.62M
1.57B
325.17M
569.84M
427.6M
-
- 1521.00K
132.52M
- 23944.00K
-
- 7332.00K
-
21.46M
- 9818.00K
-
13.95M
162.56M
148.61M
- 108750.00K
- 10157.00K
- 118907.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SPWR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$26.06
$29.64
$33.72
$38.35
$43.62