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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sun Communities, Inc. (XNYS:SUI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SUI
Name:
SUN COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:SUI)
Sector:
225.70M
Industry:
REIT�Residential
CEO:
Mr. Gary Shiffman
Total Employees:
5,961
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1410.25% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SUN COMMUNITIES, INC.(SUI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�RESIDENTIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
151.24
One Month Price Target:
$151.78
Six Month Price Target :
$154.47
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$157.7
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$150.71
Price Upper limit ($) :
$151.83
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$144.51
This week:
$136.18
This month :
$121.13
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
19.08B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
123.32M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.11%
-19.23%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$182.49
$168.22
$119.99
$134.26
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$163.58
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$160.53
$138.86
$141.95
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SUI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.48%
Comparison:
SUI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -69.90% lower than the industry
& is -79.05% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SUI
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.38%
Yearly returns:
13.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -64.63% below industry average
Classification:
SUI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.52
Statistical test of Returns:
SUI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.18%
Weekly Volatility:
4.87%
Monthly Volatility:
9.74%
Yearly Volatility:
33.73%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.75%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -65.73% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.45%
Weekly VaR:
-9.95%
Monthly VaR:
-19.91%
How Much Can the price of
SUI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-68.97%
This translates to price declining to:
$124.94
This translates to price declining to:
$46.93
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SUI is a 40.52% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 20.38% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -11.22% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SUI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.64
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.574
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.812
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.383
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.656
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.688
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.893
Beta is -28.82% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.785
Beta is -19.02% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.029
Alpha is -163.81% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -184% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SUI
Equity cost of capital:
0.075
Equity cost of capital is -12.00% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.52%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.80%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.22%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.22%
WACC is -12.36% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$19.16
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.69
Annual revenue growth rate is 470.77% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.07
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
22.39%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 342.49% higher than the REIT�Residential industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.49
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 13.77%
Equity growth rate per share is -433.47% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$36.92
EBITDA per share
$8.71
Valuation Analysis Today of
SUI
P/E Ratio:
56.13
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
158.62
P/E ratio is -64.62% lower than main peers & is -15.37% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $203.59
SUI is -25.71% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $92.14
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $59.25
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.89
Price to sales ratio is -32.67% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.69
Price to free cash flow: 23.31
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
150.60%
Net income growth rate is -113.99% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 28.48%
Dividend yeild: 2.26%
Previous Dividend: $0.88
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.88
Previous Dividend: $3.42
Expected next dividend best case: $0.91
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.85
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.82
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.64%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.88
2021-12-30--$0.83
2021-06-29--$0.83
2022-03-30--$0.88
2021-09-29--$0.83
2021-03-30--$0.83
Dividend growth rate is -106.05% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
66.71%
Net debt to equity ratio:
86.50%
Debt to assets ratio:
32.72%
Net debt to assets ratio:
42.43%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -35.81% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.38
Interest coverage ratio is 143.73% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
19.52%
Annual debt growth is -538% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.59%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.622
Statistical significance of correlation:
SUI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.63
Stock price is -1.21% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.63
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.044
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.056
Kurtosis
14.516
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.271
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SUI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
202%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
19.01%
Operating profit margin is -37.48% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
202%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.77%
Effective tax rate is -42.35% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
5.22%
Return on equity (ROE) is -38.82% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.56%
Return on assets (ROA) is -27.05% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.4
Current ratio is -95.78% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
78.1
Cash conversion cycle is 448.62% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
396.4K
Each employee generates -51% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
180.2K
Each employee generates -69% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
59.7K
Each employee generates -73% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
37.9K
Each employee generates -49% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.2M
Each employee generates -49% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SUI
DUKE REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:DRE)
ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:ESS)
VENTAS, INC. (XNYS:VTR)
MID-AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:MAA)
INVITATION HOMES INC. (XNYS:INVH)
BOSTON PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:BXP)
HEALTHPEAK PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:PEAK)
UDR, INC. (XNYS:UDR)
VICI PROPERTIES INC. (XNYS:VICI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.36B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.17B
1.19B
-
198.71M
198.71M
-
546.69M
745.40M
16.40M
168.45M
546.69M
1.07B
449.20M
356.07M
390.30M
3.00M
356.07M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
225.70M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
225.70M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 6400.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
102.60M
158.30M
260.90M
513.60M
63.30M
-
837.80M
-
512.70M
334.20M
-
-
12.23B
13.08B
-
13.91B
-
1.45B
-
335.10M
332.50M
2.12B
4.55B
306.50M
4.86B
-
6.98B
1.20M
- 1654600.00K
25.9M
8.17B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.91B
6.83B
13.81B
-
6.01B
5.9B
-
- 477800.00K
- 484200.00K
- 73600.00K
-
- 16600.00K
- 101400.00K
474.50M
282.90M
-
24.40M
102.60M
78.20M
225.70M
-
225.70M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SUI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$158.49
$313.12
$326.50
$340.46
$355.01