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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Strategic Education, Inc. (XNAS:STRA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
STRA
Name:
Strategic Education, Inc. (XNAS:STRA)
Sector:
46.91M
Industry:
Education & Training Services
CEO:
Mr. Raymond McDonnell
Total Employees:
3,742
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 17.09% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF STRATEGIC EDUCATION, INC.(STRA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND EDUCATION & TRAINING SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
62.59
One Month Price Target:
$62.75
Six Month Price Target :
$63.55
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$64.51
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$62.22
Price Upper limit ($) :
$62.86
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$58.71
This week:
$53.92
This month :
$45.24
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.54B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
24.64M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.36%
-18.4%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$80.62
$72.54
$44.56
$52.64
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$69.91
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$68.18
$55.25
$57.00
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
STRA
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.94%
Comparison:
STRA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 285.59% higher than the industry
& is -228.96% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
STRA
Daily returns:
-0.08%
Weekly returns:
-0.39%
Monthly returns:
-1.57%
Yearly returns:
-3.84%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 392.14% above industry average
Classification:
STRA, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.42
Statistical test of Returns:
STRA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.98%
Weekly Volatility:
6.66%
Monthly Volatility:
13.32%
Yearly Volatility:
46.15%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.89%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -70.19% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.20%
Weekly VaR:
-13.86%
Monthly VaR:
-27.72%
How Much Can the price of
STRA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$46.68
This translates to price declining to:
$9.39
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
STRA is a 95.62% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 67.58% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -14.55% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
STRA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.46
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.486
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.688
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.407
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.707
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.761
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.58
Beta is -21.15% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.833
Beta is -45.14% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.252
Alpha is 98.26% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1603% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
STRA
Equity cost of capital:
0.063
Equity cost of capital is -29.09% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.60%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$44.66
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.89
Annual revenue growth rate is -35.16% below industry average
EPS:
$2.18
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-15.13%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 29.52% higher than the Education & Training Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.73
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 34.48%
Equity growth rate per share is 600.00% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$12.20
EBITDA per share
$6.49
Valuation Analysis Today of
STRA
P/E Ratio:
31.55
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
45.76
P/E ratio is -31.04% lower than main peers & is 197.93% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $23.09
STRA is 171.09% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $57.56
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $38.21
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.4
Price to sales ratio is -43.62% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.89
Price to free cash flow: 13.23
Price to free cash flow ratio is -28.17% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-322.90%
Net income growth rate is 585.35% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 28.58%
Dividend yeild: 3.83%
Previous Dividend: $0.60
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.60
Previous Dividend: $2.40
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.60
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/05/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 25/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 06/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 27/05/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-26--$0.60
2021-11-26--$0.60
2021-05-27--$0.60
2022-03-04--$0.60
2021-09-02--$0.60
2021-03-05--$0.60
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
17.44%
Net debt to equity ratio:
1.92%
Debt to assets ratio:
12.70%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.40%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -73.33% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.464
Statistical significance of correlation:
STRA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.406
Stock price is 14.26% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.406
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.008
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.014
Kurtosis
9.647
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.392
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
STRA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
181%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.85%
Operating profit margin is -50.01% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
181%
Effective Tax Rate:
29.67%
Effective tax rate is -17.51% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
3.05%
Return on equity (ROE) is -84.33% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.22%
Return on assets (ROA) is -64.70% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.64
Current ratio is -51.77% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
16.5
Cash conversion cycle is -5.09% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 15.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
9.65%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
294.0K
Each employee generates 7% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
42.7K
Each employee generates -21% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
14.0K
Each employee generates -32% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
12.5K
Each employee generates 15% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
521.1K
Each employee generates 15% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
STRA
Coreo AG (XFRA:CORE)
CAL-MAINE FOODS, INC. (XNAS:CALM)
Afya Limited (XNAS:AFYA)
ARCO PLATFORM LIMITED (XNAS:ARCE)
INTER PARFUMS, INC. (XNAS:IPAR)
Tattooed Chef, Inc. (XNAS:TTCF)
MISSION PRODUCE, INC. (XNAS:AVO)
CALAVO GROWERS, INC. (XNAS:CVGW)
MGP INGREDIENTS, INC. (XNAS:MGPI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.10B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
600.08M
500.13M
-
369.28M
369.28M
-
35.83M
405.11M
-
-
85.12M
159.82M
75.35M
52.54M
74.70M
22.16M
52.54M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
16.27M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4955.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
5.07M
Change in Working Capital :
33.03M
Accounts Receivables:
- 12669.00K
Other Working Capital:
50.67M
Other Non-Cash Items:
153.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
56.60M
Investments in PP&E:
- 9686.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 175.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
293.42M
6.79M
300.20M
64.80M
-
52.85M
417.85M
299.25M
1.30B
276.27M
38.84M
-
32.50M
1.95B
-
2.37B
49.48M
25.83M
9.42M
115.65M
63.88M
254.84M
300.67M
12.83M
388.73M
-
643.57M
250.00K
166.55M
29.2M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.01B
1.72B
2.37B
45.63M
326.51M
33.1M
1.10M
-
- 8761.00K
-
-
- 3961.00K
- 15018.00K
- 2849.00K
- 21828.00K
2.10M
28.10M
307.32M
279.21M
56.60M
- 9686.00K
46.91M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
STRA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$76.08
$78.42
$80.83
$83.31
$85.87