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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Stratasys Ltd (XNAS:SSYS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SSYS
Name:
STRATASYS LTD (XNAS:SSYS)
Sector:
9.07M
Industry:
Computer Hardware
CEO:
Dr. Yoav Zeif
Total Employees:
2,039
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -256.77% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF STRATASYS LTD(SSYS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND COMPUTER HARDWARE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
16.81
One Month Price Target:
$16.93
Six Month Price Target :
$17.56
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.31
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$16.69
Price Upper limit ($) :
$16.95
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$15.24
This week:
$13.29
This month :
$9.77
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.10B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
66.75M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
38.97%
-16.98%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.11
$20.76
$9.51
$12.86
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.67
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.96
$13.94
$14.66
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SSYS
Sharpe Ratio:
1.48%
Comparison:
SSYS, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -54.43% lower than the industry
& is -35.00% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SSYS
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.38%
Monthly returns:
1.54%
Yearly returns:
26.14%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -29.36% below industry average
Classification:
SSYS, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.7
Statistical test of Returns:
SSYS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.60%
Weekly Volatility:
10.28%
Monthly Volatility:
20.55%
Yearly Volatility:
71.20%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.66%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -63.99% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.36%
Weekly VaR:
-20.93%
Monthly VaR:
-41.87%
How Much Can the price of
SSYS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-36%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$10.73
This translates to price declining to:
$2.52
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SSYS is a 195.51% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 153.16% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 44.57% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SSYS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.33
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.938
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.327
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.316
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.3
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.752
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.225
Beta is 8.26% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.224
Beta is 8.28% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.062
Alpha is -57.31% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 397% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SSYS
Equity cost of capital:
0.122
Equity cost of capital is 6.02% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.14%
Before-tax cost of debt:
13.88%
After-tax cost of debt:
10.97%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
10.97%
WACC is 28.32% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.53
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.19
Annual revenue growth rate is -119.88% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.98
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
69.85%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 231.15% higher than the Computer Hardware industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.14
-
-
Debt per share
$0.11
EBITDA per share
-$0.34
Valuation Analysis Today of
SSYS
P/E Ratio:
221.22
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
237.97
P/E ratio is -7.04% lower than main peers & is 1550.16% higher than the industry
-
SSYS is -227.95% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.76
Price to sales ratio is -37.53% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.19
Price to free cash flow: 121.37
Price to free cash flow ratio is -27.64% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
453.31%
Net income growth rate is 391.57% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.77%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-29.62%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.57%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-22.23%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.06% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-11.41
Interest coverage ratio is -331.23% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-31.49%
Annual debt growth is -218% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.438
Statistical significance of correlation:
SSYS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.599
Stock price is -26.96% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.599
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.014
Kurtosis
8.525
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.183
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SSYS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
172%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-12.63%
Operating profit margin is -267.16% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
172%
Effective Tax Rate:
4.40%
Effective tax rate is -72.74% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-6.79%
Return on equity (ROE) is -150.77% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-5.10%
Return on assets (ROA) is -168.29% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
3.92
Current ratio is 69.64% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
56.6
Cash conversion cycle is -28.95% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-48.39%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
312.1K
Each employee generates -57% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 11.2K
Each employee generates -111% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 31.4K
Each employee generates -145% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.4K
Each employee generates -64% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
229.8K
Each employee generates -64% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 5.11%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -401.81% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SSYS
FARO TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:FARO)
MESA LABORATORIES, INC. (XNAS:MLAB)
UPLAND SOFTWARE, INC. (XNAS:UPLD)
EVO PAYMENTS, INC. (XNAS:EVOP)
CAMTEK LTD (XNAS:CAMT)
RADWARE LTD. (XNAS:RDWR)
LORL
FORMULA SYSTEMS (1985) LTD (XNAS:FORTY)
IMPINJ, INC. (XNAS:PI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�42%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
636.46M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
362.28M
274.18M
91.70M
-
262.87M
-
-
354.57M
-
2.00M
42.29M
- 22766.00K
- 80388.00K
- 64019.00K
- 69048.00K
- 3037.00K
- 64019.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
56.10M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
30.98M
Change in Working Capital :
19.58M
Accounts Receivables:
- 25003.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 3508.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 8843.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
35.82M
Investments in PP&E:
- 24981.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 20553.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 372779.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
293.65M
182.00M
475.65M
136.44M
143.12M
32.66M
787.87M
214.79M
65.09M
143.32M
28.67M
-
16.65M
468.51M
-
1.26B
59.01M
7.16M
-
52.34M
82.54M
201.04M
7.22M
77.14M
112.64M
-
313.68M
185.00K
- 2068826.00K
- 9824.0K
3.02B
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
716.85M
942.70M
1.26B
210.67M
14.38M
- 279271.0K
129.00M
- 1852.00K
- 291165.00K
-
218.85M
-
-
8.46M
227.31M
- 893.00K
- 28923.00K
243.29M
272.22M
35.82M
- 26751.00K
9.07M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SSYS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.37
$20.00
$21.79
$23.73
$25.84