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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Stonex Group Inc. (XNAS:SNEX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SNEX
Name:
STONEX GROUP INC. (XNAS:SNEX)
Sector:
- 607500.00K
Industry:
Capital Markets
CEO:
Mr. Sean Michael O'Connor
Total Employees:
3,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 547.61% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF STONEX GROUP INC.(SNEX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CAPITAL MARKETS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
89.29
One Month Price Target:
$89.77
Six Month Price Target :
$92.15
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$95.02
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$88.98
Price Upper limit ($) :
$89.88
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$84.01
This week:
$77.48
This month :
$65.68
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.76B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
20.26M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.65%
-14.59%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$113.76
$102.31
$64.82
$76.27
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$98.59
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$96.14
$79.96
$82.44
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SNEX
Sharpe Ratio:
5.11%
Comparison:
SNEX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 46.33% higher than the industry
& ratio is 124.34% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SNEX
Daily returns:
0.16%
Weekly returns:
0.80%
Monthly returns:
3.20%
Yearly returns:
25.05%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 53.33% above industry average
Classification:
SNEX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.43
Statistical test of Returns:
SNEX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.96%
Weekly Volatility:
6.61%
Monthly Volatility:
13.22%
Yearly Volatility:
45.81%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.72%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -75.64% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.91%
Weekly VaR:
-13.22%
Monthly VaR:
-26.44%
How Much Can the price of
SNEX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-91.61%
This translates to price declining to:
$70.05
This translates to price declining to:
$7.50
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SNEX is a 86.64% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 59.90% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.63% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SNEX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.95
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.668
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.945
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.128
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.652
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.868
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
3.773
Beta is -74.70% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.144
Beta is -16.57% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
15.31%
Sustainable growth rate is -33.29% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.287
Alpha is 104.24% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1828% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SNEX
Equity cost of capital:
0.097
Equity cost of capital is -11.82% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.30%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2,604.09
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.9
Annual revenue growth rate is -33.15% below industry average
EPS:
$7.17
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
15.04%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -71.35% lower than the Capital Markets industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$176.26
-
-
Debt per share
$393.73
EBITDA per share
$12.14
Valuation Analysis Today of
SNEX
P/E Ratio:
11.35
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.2
P/E ratio is -29.96% lower than main peers & is -43.25% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $143.36
SNEX is -37.72% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.03
Price to sales ratio is -99.20% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.9
Price to free cash flow: 0.51
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
103.18%
Net income growth rate is -185.37% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
837.09%
Net debt to equity ratio:
733.90%
Debt to assets ratio:
41.49%
Net debt to assets ratio:
36.37%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -44.07% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
34.49%
Annual debt growth is 57% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.79%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.488
Statistical significance of correlation:
SNEX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.637
Stock price is -23.30% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.637
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.037
Kurtosis
11.819
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.72
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SNEX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
4%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
2.41%
Operating profit margin is -87.54% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
4%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.85%
Effective tax rate is 15.01% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.45%
Return on equity (ROE) is -36.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.77%
Return on assets (ROA) is -86.05% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.42
Current ratio is -66.34% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
21.2
Cash conversion cycle is 22.55% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.79%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
15.1M
Each employee generates 719% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
70.3K
Each employee generates -75% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
42.1K
Each employee generates -75% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 173.6K
Each employee generates 648% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.0M
Each employee generates 648% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SNEX
1ST SOURCE CORPORATION (XNAS:SRCE)
OAKTREE SPECIALTY LENDING CORPORATION (XNAS:OCSL)
AMERISAFE, INC (XNAS:AMSF)
BPFH
StepStone Group Inc (XNAS:STEP)
STOCK YARDS BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:SYBT)
MERCHANTS BANCORP (XNAS:MBIN)
SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SAFT)
Nuveen Nasdaq 100 Dyn Ov (XNAS:QQQX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
52.76B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
52.21B
551.20M
-
118.40M
161.70M
43.30M
188.20M
349.90M
31.20M
-
55.10M
245.90M
1.27B
147.20M
190.80M
43.60M
147.20M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
12.90M
Differed Income Tax :
- 500.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.10M
Change in Working Capital :
- 659200.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 66700.00K
Other Working Capital:
2.50M
Other Non-Cash Items:
800.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 600200.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 7300.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
983.40M
-
983.40M
2.92B
523.90M
7.89B
12.32B
216.90M
58.10M
39.10M
6.45B
35.50M
114.00M
6.91B
-
19.23B
287.80M
-
19.10M
-
8.41B
8.70B
7.98B
1.60B
9.58B
-
18.28B
200.00K
724.20M
- 26500.0K
255.10M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
52.56B
953.00M
19.23B
-
7.98B
7.0B
-
-
- 7300.00K
- 63500.00K
-
-
-
305.00M
241.50M
- 1500.00K
- 367500.00K
6.14B
6.51B
- 600200.00K
- 7300.00K
- 607500.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SNEX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$116.19
$123.64
$131.58
$140.02
$149.00