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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:SYBT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SYBT
Name:
STOCK YARDS BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:SYBT)
Sector:
2.57M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. James Hillebrand
Total Employees:
820
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -646.14% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF STOCK YARDS BANCORP, INC.(SYBT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
65.6
One Month Price Target:
$65.87
Six Month Price Target :
$67.19
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$68.78
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$65.38
Price Upper limit ($) :
$65.95
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$62.22
This week:
$58.05
This month :
$50.5
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.93B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
29.24M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.45%
-11.41%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$81.25
$73.99
$49.95
$57.21
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$71.63
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$70.07
$59.56
$61.13
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SYBT
Sharpe Ratio:
3.54%
Comparison:
SYBT, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 188.47% higher than the industry
& ratio is 55.47% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SYBT
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.50%
Monthly returns:
1.99%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 118.52% above industry average
Classification:
SYBT, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.3
Statistical test of Returns:
SYBT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.55%
Weekly Volatility:
5.71%
Monthly Volatility:
11.42%
Yearly Volatility:
39.56%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.58%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.41% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.15%
Weekly VaR:
-11.51%
Monthly VaR:
-23.01%
How Much Can the price of
SYBT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-79.71%
This translates to price declining to:
$53.00
This translates to price declining to:
$13.31
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SYBT is a 62.41% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 39.14% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.60% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SYBT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.72
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.587
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.83
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.703
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.532
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.886
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
3.773
Beta is -80.87% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -25.09% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.48%
Sustainable growth rate is -18.08% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.157
Alpha is 1257.34% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1002% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SYBT
Equity cost of capital:
0.081
Equity cost of capital is -16.98% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.88%
Before-tax cost of debt:
21.24%
After-tax cost of debt:
16.78%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
16.78%
WACC is -29.29% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.48
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.53
Annual revenue growth rate is 54.21% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.24
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.57%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -95.28% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.83
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 29.87%
Equity growth rate per share is -22.86% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.89
EBITDA per share
$3.26
Valuation Analysis Today of
SYBT
P/E Ratio:
21.98
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
52.63
P/E ratio is -58.24% lower than main peers & is 77.12% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $27.80
SYBT is 136.01% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $31.27
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $14.55
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.73
Price to sales ratio is 80.85% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.53
Price to free cash flow: 23.18
Price to free cash flow ratio is -34.70% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
34.79%
Net income growth rate is -36.83% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 13.85%
Dividend yeild: 1.71%
Previous Dividend: $0.28
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.28
Previous Dividend: $1.12
Expected next dividend best case: $0.28
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.27
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.37%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 19/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$0.28
2021-12-17--$0.28
2021-06-18--$0.27
2022-03-18--$0.28
2021-09-17--$0.28
2021-03-11--$0.27
Dividend growth rate is -98.43% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.44%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-11.05%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.33%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.08%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.80% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
17.21
Interest coverage ratio is 1976.32% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 10.94%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.502
Statistical significance of correlation:
SYBT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 0.29% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.007
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.011
Kurtosis
5.031
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.42
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SYBT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
21.84%
Effective tax rate is 1.38% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.89%
Return on equity (ROE) is -33.84% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.77%
Return on assets (ROA) is -66.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.66%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
302.5K
Each employee generates -20% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
116.1K
Each employee generates -49% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
73.0K
Each employee generates -48% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.1K
Each employee generates -96% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.5M
Each employee generates -96% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SYBT
Nuveen Nasdaq 100 Dyn Ov (XNAS:QQQX)
PREMIER FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:PFC)
Calamos Conv & High Inc (XNAS:CHY)
STONEX GROUP INC. (XNAS:SNEX)
1ST SOURCE CORPORATION (XNAS:SRCE)
JAMES RIVER GROUP HOLDINGS, LTD. (XNAS:JRVR)
EBSB
GERMAN AMERICAN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:GABC)
AMERISAFE, INC (XNAS:AMSF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
248.04M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
99.78M
104.17M
4.40M
-
-
187.54M
5.53M
13.11M
95.22M
-
59.84M
76.61M
16.74M
59.84M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.04M
Differed Income Tax :
1.23M
Stock Based Compensation :
991.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 14928.00K
Accounts Receivables:
6.40M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.25M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
3.52M
Investments in PP&E:
- 946.00K
Net Acquisitions:
349.46M
Purchases of Investments:
- 481153.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
109.80M
1.15B
1.26B
33.39M
-
-
-
108.83M
202.52M
48.85M
1.71B
-
-
2.07B
9.85B
7.78B
337.00K
-
-
-
-
-
26.05M
-
26.05M
7.05B
7.02B
58.24M
384.95M
- 57599.0K
372.56M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
758.14M
7.78B
2.86B
26.05M
- 83754.0K
143.15M
- 45848.00K
- 35337.00K
- 3200.00K
-
-
- 8287.00K
- 166197.00K
- 177684.00K
-
- 209501.00K
751.69M
961.19M
3.52M
- 946.00K
2.57M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SYBT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$85.01
$89.13
$93.45
$97.99
$102.74