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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Stitch Fix, Inc. (XNAS:SFIX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SFIX
Name:
STITCH FIX, INC. (XNAS:SFIX)
Sector:
- 31232.00K
Industry:
Apparel Retail
CEO:
Ms. Katrina Lake
Total Employees:
11,260
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -14.58% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF STITCH FIX, INC.(SFIX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
4.93
One Month Price Target:
$4.98
Six Month Price Target :
$5.25
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$5.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$4.88
Price Upper limit ($) :
$4.97
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$4.38
This week:
$3.71
This month :
$2.48
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
551.67M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
108.17M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
39.24%
-28.15%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.47
$6.33
$2.39
$3.53
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$5.96
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.71
$3.90
$4.15
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SFIX
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.16%
Comparison:
SFIX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -411.80% lower than the industry
& is -194.83% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SFIX
Daily returns:
-0.11%
Weekly returns:
-0.53%
Monthly returns:
-2.14%
Yearly returns:
8.86%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -389.33% below industry average
Classification:
SFIX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.43
Statistical test of Returns:
SFIX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.35%
Weekly Volatility:
11.97%
Monthly Volatility:
23.94%
Yearly Volatility:
82.92%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.72%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -49.27% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.10%
Weekly VaR:
-24.82%
Monthly VaR:
-49.64%
How Much Can the price of
SFIX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-45%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$2.70
This translates to price declining to:
$0.74
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SFIX is a 250.36% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 200.15% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 37.94% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SFIX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.96
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.444
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
2.041
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.504
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.191
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.508
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.538
Beta is 27.29% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.366
Beta is 43.23% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.422
Alpha is 1057.23% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2686% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SFIX
Equity cost of capital:
0.166
Equity cost of capital is 32.35% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.72%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$19.99
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.11
Annual revenue growth rate is 161.42% above the industry average
EPS:
-$0.82
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.59
-
-
Debt per share
$1.33
EBITDA per share
-$0.50
Valuation Analysis Today of
SFIX
P/E Ratio:
100.29
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.3
P/E ratio is 448.17% higher than main peers & is 629.58% higher than the industry
-
SFIX is -143.74% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.25
Price to sales ratio is -71.55% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.11
Price to free cash flow: 8.36
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-114.17%
Net income growth rate is 84.26% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
30.09%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-16.67%
Debt to assets ratio:
15.50%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-8.58%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -75.93% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-10.45%
Annual debt growth is -104% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.349
Statistical significance of correlation:
SFIX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.453
Stock price is -22.90% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.453
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.051
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.158
Kurtosis
6.645
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.33
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SFIX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
181%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-4.10%
Operating profit margin is -155.29% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
181%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.16%
Effective tax rate is -100.60% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-18.66%
Return on equity (ROE) is -145.08% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-9.61%
Return on assets (ROA) is -191.88% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.92
Current ratio is 10.20% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-21.1
Cash conversion cycle is -144.09% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-36.27%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
192.0K
Each employee generates -51% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 4.8K
Each employee generates -110% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 7.9K
Each employee generates -131% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.8K
Each employee generates -142% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
31.7K
Each employee generates -142% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SFIX
ALLBIRDS, INC. (XNAS:BIRD)
THE ODP CORPORATION (XNAS:ODP)
THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED (XNAS:CAKE)
PROTERRA INC (XNAS:PTRA)
MONRO, INC. (XNAS:MNRO)
BLOOMIN' BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:BLMN)
PACTIV EVERGREEN INC. (XNAS:PTVE)
JACK IN THE BOX INC. (XNAS:JACK)
DAVE & BUSTER'S ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (XNAS:PLAY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
2.16B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.18B
981.26M
-
-
1.07B
-
-
1.07B
699.00K
-
35.18M
- 53988.00K
- 88686.00K
- 89311.00K
- 89169.00K
142.00K
- 89311.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
9.04M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
32.39M
Change in Working Capital :
- 31379.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
2.59M
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.14M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 16724.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 14508.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 25097.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
10/30/21
2022
Q1
249.68M
62.44M
312.12M
27.62M
184.13M
48.90M
572.77M
235.82M
-
-
88.42M
-
32.41M
356.65M
-
929.42M
129.23M
25.88M
10.71M
26.08M
117.05M
298.23M
144.01M
8.58M
152.59M
-
450.83M
2.00K
38.85M
2.5M
-
January 29, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
2.25B
478.60M
929.42M
150.86M
169.90M
- 79782.0K
19.51M
-
- 20096.00K
-
-
-
-
- 18305.00K
- 18305.00K
- 674.00K
- 55799.00K
193.88M
249.68M
- 16724.00K
- 14508.00K
- 31232.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SFIX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$5.60
$6.33
$7.17
$8.11
$9.18