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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Stifel Financial Corp. (XNYS:SF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SF
Name:
STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP. (XNYS:SF)
Sector:
- 12628.00K
Industry:
Capital Markets
CEO:
Mr. Ronald Kruszewski
Total Employees:
8,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -44.76% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP.(SF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CAPITAL MARKETS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
58.77
One Month Price Target:
$59.18
Six Month Price Target :
$61.22
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$63.68
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$58.53
Price Upper limit ($) :
$59.12
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$55.26
This week:
$50.91
This month :
$43.06
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.24B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
106.14M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.95%
-16.83%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$75.07
$67.53
$42.47
$50.01
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$65.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$63.47
$52.44
$54.07
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SF
Sharpe Ratio:
2.98%
Comparison:
SF, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -14.81% lower than the industry
& ratio is 30.60% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SF
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.48%
Monthly returns:
1.94%
Yearly returns:
25.05%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -7.16% below industry average
Classification:
SF, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.99
Statistical test of Returns:
SF has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.96%
Weekly Volatility:
6.61%
Monthly Volatility:
13.23%
Yearly Volatility:
45.83%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -60.36% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.98%
Weekly VaR:
-13.37%
Monthly VaR:
-26.74%
How Much Can the price of
SF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-92.62%
This translates to price declining to:
$45.53
This translates to price declining to:
$4.34
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SF is a 88.71% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 61.67% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.67% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.24
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.876
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.239
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.239
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.043
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.074
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.856
Beta is 45.16% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.144
Beta is 8.59% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.04%
Sustainable growth rate is -25.77% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.116
Alpha is -17.54% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 738% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SF
Equity cost of capital:
0.117
Equity cost of capital is 6.13% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.24%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$44.37
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.23
Annual revenue growth rate is -19.96% below industry average
EPS:
$6.65
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
18.59%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -64.58% lower than the Capital Markets industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$11.22
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 134.86%
Equity growth rate per share is 34.79% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$10.80
Valuation Analysis Today of
SF
P/E Ratio:
9.27
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.77
P/E ratio is -5.13% lower than main peers & is -53.64% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $132.96
SF is -55.80% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $147.56
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $66.02
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.32
Price to sales ratio is -69.09% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.23
Price to free cash flow: 5.24
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
112.34%
Net income growth rate is -192.95% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.14%
Dividend yeild: 1.53%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $0.90
Expected next dividend best case: $0.35
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.25
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.18
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 10.16%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.30
2021-11-30--$0.15
2021-05-28--$0.15
2022-02-28--$0.30
2021-08-31--$0.15
2021-02-26--$0.15
Dividend growth rate is -65.77% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
543.25%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-30.77%
Debt to assets ratio:
84.45%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-4.43%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 13.86% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
27.96
Interest coverage ratio is -45.25% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.09%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.763
Statistical significance of correlation:
SF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.637
Stock price is 19.75% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.637
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.031
Kurtosis
7.102
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.097
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
140%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
30.73%
Operating profit margin is 58.64% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
140%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.59%
Effective tax rate is 13.71% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.15%
Return on equity (ROE) is -33.74% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.33%
Return on assets (ROA) is -57.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
6.4x
Current Ratio:
2.96
Current ratio is -29.71% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-10.32%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
547.7K
Each employee generates -70% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
133.3K
Each employee generates -53% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
94.9K
Each employee generates -44% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 1.5K
Each employee generates -94% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
201.0K
Each employee generates -94% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SF
REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMERICA, INCORPORATED (XNYS:RGA)
OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNYS:ORI)
RNR-PE
SYNOVUS FINANCIAL CORP. (XNYS:SNV)
RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS LTD. (XNYS:RNR)
THE WESTERN UNION COMPANY (XNYS:WU)
HOULIHAN LOKEY, INC. (XNYS:HLI)
RNR-PF
Woori Financial Group Inc. (XNYS:WF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.71B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
673.69M
1.80B
-
2.25B
2.25B
-
- 381961.00K
417.91M
420.86M
41.02M
48.59M
1.15B
1.45B
816.07M
1.07B
240.91M
816.07M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
- 84259.00K
Change in Working Capital :
74.45M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
- 12628.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 6141.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.56B
1.93B
3.48B
-
-
-
3.48B
169.16M
1.31B
140.63M
-
109.83M
-
1.73B
33.34B
35.09B
1.18B
-
-
-
-
1.18B
-
28.86B
28.86B
-
30.03B
16.75M
2.83B
- 62604.0K
2.27B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
745.81M
5.05B
35.09B
-
-
- 1555146.0K
10.09M
- 927018.00K
- 935695.00K
-
-
-
- 9320.00K
1.18B
1.18B
- 3084.00K
- 425174.00K
1.72B
2.15B
-
- 12628.00K
- 12628.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$77.34
$83.80
$90.80
$98.38
$106.59