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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Steven Madden, Ltd. (XNAS:SHOO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SHOO
Name:
STEVEN MADDEN, LTD. (XNAS:SHOO)
Sector:
- 25042.00K
Industry:
Footwear & Accessories
CEO:
Mr. Edward Rosenfeld
Total Employees:
2,400
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -152.65% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF STEVEN MADDEN, LTD.(SHOO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FOOTWEAR & ACCESSORIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
28.78
One Month Price Target:
$28.96
Six Month Price Target :
$29.83
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$30.88
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$28.62
Price Upper limit ($) :
$28.94
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$26.82
This week:
$24.4
This month :
$20.01
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.35B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
79.00M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.64%
-21.32%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.89
$33.75
$19.67
$23.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$32.40
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.52
$25.15
$26.04
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SHOO
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.29%
Comparison:
SHOO, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -118.26% lower than the industry
& is -112.57% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SHOO
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.00%
Monthly returns:
-0.01%
Yearly returns:
13.15%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -101.19% below industry average
Classification:
SHOO, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.06
Statistical test of Returns:
SHOO has yielded a lower return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.32%
Weekly Volatility:
7.42%
Monthly Volatility:
14.84%
Yearly Volatility:
51.39%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.23%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -32.81% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.81%
Weekly VaR:
-15.24%
Monthly VaR:
-30.47%
How Much Can the price of
SHOO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$21.02
This translates to price declining to:
$4.32
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SHOO is a 115.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 84.24% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 12.49% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SHOO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.09
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.808
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.142
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.015
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.879
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.816
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.606
Beta is -32.27% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.075
Beta is 1.21% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.80%
Sustainable growth rate is -48.59% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.108
Alpha is -507.51% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -685% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SHOO
Equity cost of capital:
0.106
Equity cost of capital is 0.85% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.90%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.45%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.14%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.14%
WACC is 15.73% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$26.14
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.7
Annual revenue growth rate is -45.19% below industry average
EPS:
$3.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.55%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -45.63% lower than the Footwear & Accessories industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.63
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 8.60%
Equity growth rate per share is -22.93% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.96
EBITDA per share
$4.17
Valuation Analysis Today of
SHOO
P/E Ratio:
9.04
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.15
P/E ratio is -57.25% lower than main peers & is -57.85% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $64.80
SHOO is -55.58% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $46.19
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $15.57
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.1
Price to sales ratio is -57.94% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.7
Price to free cash flow: 17.66
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
54.34%
Net income growth rate is -68.27% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.87%
Dividend yeild: 2.50%
Previous Dividend: $0.21
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.21
Previous Dividend: $0.72
Expected next dividend best case: $0.24
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.18
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.17
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.71%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/12/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-10--$0.21
2021-12-16--$0.15
2021-06-14--$0.15
2022-03-10--$0.21
2021-09-16--$0.15
2021-03-15--$0.15
Dividend growth rate is -92.61% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
9.05%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-7.56%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.91%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-4.94%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -87.12% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
212.55
Interest coverage ratio is 60.73% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-16.57%
Annual debt growth is -156% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.541
Statistical significance of correlation:
SHOO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.632
Stock price is -14.43% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.632
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.067
Kurtosis
12.78
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.506
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SHOO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
166%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.18%
Operating profit margin is 25.41% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
166%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.57%
Effective tax rate is 19.95% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
29.21%
Return on equity (ROE) is -1.67% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
19.08%
Return on assets (ROA) is 38.12% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.51
Current ratio is -3.38% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-19.3
Cash conversion cycle is -124.97% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.45%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
860.4K
Each employee generates 4% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
137.2K
Each employee generates 11% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
101.7K
Each employee generates -2% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 10.4K
Each employee generates -13% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
171.0K
Each employee generates -13% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SHOO
NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EYE)
ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC. (XNAS:ASO)
STAY
HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:HOVNP)
TRIPADVISOR, INC. (XNAS:TRIP)
LGI HOMES, INC. (XNAS:LGIH)
VISTEON CORPORATION (XNAS:VC)
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (XNAS:CBRL)
RUSH ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:RUSHA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.06B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.21B
856.29M
-
-
-
-
539.40M
539.40M
- 513.00K
1.55M
16.40M
329.24M
313.45M
244.00M
312.01M
67.29M
244.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.22M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1673.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
5.98M
Change in Working Capital :
- 98863.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 12872.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 10131.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 4706.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 19446.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 9668.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
170.35M
9.90M
180.24M
433.25M
233.38M
21.23M
868.10M
120.43M
168.41M
110.33M
-
6.25M
5.00M
410.42M
-
1.28B
121.43M
31.62M
23.20M
-
192.22M
345.26M
75.55M
10.93M
89.86M
-
435.12M
8.00K
1.48B
- 28022.0K
- 615577.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.75B
835.22M
1.27B
-
107.17M
- 63179.0K
44.49M
- 5596.00K
29.22M
-
-
- 42399.00K
- 16774.00K
275.00K
- 58898.00K
- 32.00K
- 49152.00K
170.35M
219.50M
- 19446.00K
- 5596.00K
- 25042.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SHOO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$31.03
$47.51
$50.98
$54.70
$58.70