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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Stericycle, Inc. (XNAS:SRCL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SRCL
Name:
STERICYCLE, INC. (XNAS:SRCL)
Sector:
- 76300.00K
Industry:
Waste Management
CEO:
Ms. Cindy Miller
Total Employees:
14,550
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 57.95% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF STERICYCLE, INC.(SRCL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND WASTE MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
49.37
One Month Price Target:
$49.72
Six Month Price Target :
$51.44
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$53.51
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$49.16
Price Upper limit ($) :
$49.57
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$46.86
This week:
$43.75
This month :
$38.13
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.53B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
92.18M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.28%
-14.03%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$61.04
$55.75
$37.70
$42.99
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$54.02
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$52.90
$44.70
$45.84
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SRCL
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.81%
Comparison:
SRCL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -133.75% lower than the industry
& is -135.75% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SRCL
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.06%
Monthly returns:
-0.23%
Yearly returns:
15.29%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -117.73% below industry average
Classification:
SRCL, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.74
Statistical test of Returns:
SRCL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.47%
Weekly Volatility:
5.53%
Monthly Volatility:
11.06%
Yearly Volatility:
38.30%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.03%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -98.71% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.09%
Weekly VaR:
-11.38%
Monthly VaR:
-22.76%
How Much Can the price of
SRCL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-78.83%
This translates to price declining to:
$39.37
This translates to price declining to:
$10.45
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SRCL is a 60.62% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.60% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.45% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SRCL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.25
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.736
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.042
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.596
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.596
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.877
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.318
Beta is -5.31% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.031
Beta is 21.03% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
1.55%
Sustainable growth rate is -87.83% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.144
Alpha is -383.89% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -917% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SRCL
Equity cost of capital:
0.117
Equity cost of capital is 14.55% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.58%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.38%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.67%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.67%
WACC is 21.22% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$28.67
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.91
Annual revenue growth rate is -376.89% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.74
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-56.21%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -1398.14% lower than the Waste Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.77
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 352.60% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$21.27
EBITDA per share
$2.68
Valuation Analysis Today of
SRCL
P/E Ratio:
190.46
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
110.89
P/E ratio is 71.76% higher than main peers & is 663.40% higher than the industry
-
SRCL is -367.41% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.72
Price to sales ratio is -28.66% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.91
Price to free cash flow: 63.83
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-89.22%
Net income growth rate is -243.93% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
82.45%
Net debt to equity ratio:
84.27%
Debt to assets ratio:
35.79%
Net debt to assets ratio:
36.58%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.87% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.53
Interest coverage ratio is -66.49% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
11.04%
Annual debt growth is 4% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 12.49%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.53
Statistical significance of correlation:
SRCL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.559
Stock price is -5.27% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.559
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.007
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.011
Kurtosis
12.784
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.874
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SRCL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
151%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.72%
Operating profit margin is -87.54% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
151%
Effective Tax Rate:
-32.87%
Effective tax rate is -234.48% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-2.86%
Return on equity (ROE) is -124.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is -130.51% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0.92
Current ratio is -33.01% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
9.1
Cash conversion cycle is -81.73% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-7.05%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
181.7K
Each employee generates -41% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
16.9K
Each employee generates -72% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 4.7K
Each employee generates -122% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 5.2K
Each employee generates -190% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
334.3K
Each employee generates -190% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SRCL
EXPONENT, INC. (XNAS:EXPO)
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (XNAS:BHFAL)
CHART INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:GTLS)
RBC BEARINGS INCORPORATED (XNAS:ROLL)
ROCKET LAB USA, INC. (XNAS:RKLB)
KORNIT DIGITAL LTD (XNAS:KRNT)
JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION (XNAS:JBLU)
ANDAW
LANDSTAR SYSTEM, INC. (XNAS:LSTR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�4%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.64B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.64B
1.00B
-
-
982.90M
-
-
982.90M
-
69.80M
228.30M
246.60M
19.10M
- 68100.00K
- 50500.00K
16.60M
- 68100.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
59.70M
Differed Income Tax :
700.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.80M
Change in Working Capital :
- 90800.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 37300.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 13400.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
900.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 38800.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
59.60M
-
59.60M
457.20M
-
96.70M
613.50M
1.06B
2.81B
932.90M
-
-
62.30M
4.86B
-
5.48B
210.90M
102.90M
-
-
355.70M
669.50M
1.96B
55.50M
2.43B
-
3.10B
900.00K
1.34B
- 227400.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.63B
2.38B
5.47B
-
2.06B
2.0B
-
- 36800.00K
- 36800.00K
- 279800.00K
-
- 5200.00K
-
364.40M
79.40M
200.00K
4.00M
59.60M
55.60M
- 38800.00K
- 37500.00K
- 76300.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SRCL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$53.78
$24.29
$26.32
$28.53
$30.92