_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (XNYS:SWK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SWK
Name:
STANLEY BLACK & DECKER, INC. (XNYS:SWK)
Sector:
- 139800.00K
Industry:
Tools & Accessories
CEO:
Mr. James Loree
Total Employees:
71,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -105.30% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF STANLEY BLACK & DECKER, INC.(SWK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TOOLS & ACCESSORIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
85.77
One Month Price Target:
$86.38
Six Month Price Target :
$89.44
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$93.11
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$85.31
Price Upper limit ($) :
$86.15
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$80.65
This week:
$74.32
This month :
$62.86
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
12.61B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
147.82M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.32%
-20.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$109.57
$98.85
$61.97
$72.69
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$95.36
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$93.07
$76.15
$78.47
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SWK
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.99%
Comparison:
SWK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -248.38% lower than the industry
& is -187.13% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SWK
Daily returns:
-0.05%
Weekly returns:
-0.24%
Monthly returns:
-0.97%
Yearly returns:
10.57%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -209.93% below industry average
Classification:
SWK, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.32
Statistical test of Returns:
SWK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.88%
Weekly Volatility:
6.45%
Monthly Volatility:
12.90%
Yearly Volatility:
44.68%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.72%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -75.18% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.97%
Weekly VaR:
-13.35%
Monthly VaR:
-26.71%
How Much Can the price of
SWK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-92.52%
This translates to price declining to:
$65.03
This translates to price declining to:
$6.42
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SWK is a 88.50% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 61.49% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 9.20% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SWK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.27
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.821
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.161
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.8
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.962
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.015
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.161
Beta is 9.65% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.226
Beta is 3.87% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.34%
Sustainable growth rate is 0.41% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.235
Alpha is 2311.75% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1496% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SWK
Equity cost of capital:
0.119
Equity cost of capital is 2.81% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.46%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.84%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.46%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.46%
WACC is -12.48% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$107.35
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.36
-
EPS:
$8.30
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
14.31%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -735.34% lower than the Tools & Accessories industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.53
-
-
Debt per share
$36.23
EBITDA per share
$14.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
SWK
P/E Ratio:
14.98
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
23.81
P/E ratio is -37.08% lower than main peers & is -56.72% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $287.31
SWK is -70.15% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $47.03
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $30.69
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.8
Price to sales ratio is -72.52% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.36
Price to free cash flow: 55.96
Price to free cash flow ratio is 187.99% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.45%
Dividend yeild: 3.68%
Previous Dividend: $0.79
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.79
Previous Dividend: $3.16
Expected next dividend best case: $0.83
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.75
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.73
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.43%
Expected next dividend payment date: 19/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/05/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 21/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/07/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-06--$0.79
2021-11-30--$0.79
2021-06-07--$0.70
2022-03-07--$0.79
2021-09-03--$0.79
2021-03-08--$0.70
Dividend growth rate is -40.47% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
57.25%
Net debt to equity ratio:
109.86%
Debt to assets ratio:
18.24%
Net debt to assets ratio:
35.01%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -68.32% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.96
Interest coverage ratio is -8.61% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 34.69%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.721
Statistical significance of correlation:
SWK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.678
Stock price is 6.26% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.678
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.029
Kurtosis
15.805
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.061
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SWK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
122%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.69%
Operating profit margin is 28.28% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
122%
Effective Tax Rate:
-3.32%
Effective tax rate is -119.26% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.72%
Return on equity (ROE) is 2.80% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.69%
Return on assets (ROA) is -16.57% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
0.89
Current ratio is -57.76% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-20.9
Cash conversion cycle is -118.35% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 17.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
222.6K
Each employee generates -24% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
29.6K
Each employee generates -33% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
19.3K
Each employee generates -21% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.0K
Each employee generates -695% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
275.2K
Each employee generates -695% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SWK
EQUIFAX INC. (XNYS:EFX)
AMETEK, INC. (XNYS:AME)
CUMMINS INC. (XNYS:CMI)
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO. (XNYS:LUV)
KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN (XMEX:KSU*)
DELTA AIR LINES, INC. (XNYS:DAL)
DOVER CORPORATION (XNYS:DOV)
W.W. GRAINGER, INC. (XNYS:GWW)
OTIS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION (XNYS:OTIS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�46%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
15.87B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
10.93B
4.94B
-
-
3.34B
-
75.70M
3.41B
9.70M
192.60M
576.80M
2.11B
1.38B
1.38B
1.06B
- 35200.00K
1.38B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
143.70M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 977800.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 1218800.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
658.80M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 36500.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 100.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
165.80M
-
165.80M
1.84B
6.27B
1.46B
9.74B
2.37B
8.60B
12.80M
-
-
8.65B
19.62B
-
29.36B
3.37B
5.09B
-
-
2.50B
10.96B
5.36B
3.69B
9.05B
-
20.00B
442.30M
8.80B
- 1873300.0K
1.98B
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
14.35B
9.35B
29.36B
-
10.44B
10.3B
-
- 126800.00K
- 163400.00K
- 2844800.00K
13.70M
- 2313000.00K
- 116300.00K
6.69B
1.43B
4.80M
25.70M
320.50M
294.80M
-
- 139800.00K
- 139800.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SWK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$93.58
$163.07
$177.02
$192.17
$208.61