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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sportsman'S Warehouse Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:SPWH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SPWH
Name:
SPORTSMAN'S WAREHOUSE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SPWH)
Sector:
- 9625.00K
Industry:
Specialty Retail
CEO:
Mr. Jon Barker
Total Employees:
3,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -318.05% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SPORTSMAN'S WAREHOUSE HOLDINGS, INC.(SPWH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
8.72
One Month Price Target:
$8.76
Six Month Price Target :
$8.99
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$9.25
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$8.67
Price Upper limit ($) :
$8.78
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$8.07
This week:
$7.26
This month :
$5.8
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
350.20M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
38.87M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
39.6%
-19.66%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.75
$10.36
$5.69
$7.08
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$9.90
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.61
$7.53
$7.83
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SPWH
Sharpe Ratio:
1.97%
Comparison:
SPWH, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -31.00% lower than the industry
& is -13.42% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SPWH
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.41%
Monthly returns:
1.63%
Yearly returns:
34.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -43.95% below industry average
Classification:
SPWH, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.91
Statistical test of Returns:
SPWH has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.68%
Weekly Volatility:
8.24%
Monthly Volatility:
16.48%
Yearly Volatility:
57.07%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
8.31%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 125.59% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.48%
Weekly VaR:
-16.74%
Monthly VaR:
-33.47%
How Much Can the price of
SPWH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$6.22
This translates to price declining to:
$1.31
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SPWH is a 136.25% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 102.39% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -11.30% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SPWH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.91
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.692
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.978
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.509
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.758
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.632
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.553
Beta is -41.22% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.43
Beta is -36.16% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
35.16%
Sustainable growth rate is 5.88% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.102
Alpha is -53.72% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 647% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SPWH
Equity cost of capital:
0.094
Equity cost of capital is -27.36% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.24%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.66%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.52%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.52%
WACC is -15.45% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$38.30
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.58
Annual revenue growth rate is 154.31% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.24
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
64.31%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 82.62% higher than the Specialty Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$5.82
EBITDA per share
$4.19
Valuation Analysis Today of
SPWH
P/E Ratio:
3.99
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
98.38
P/E ratio is -95.95% lower than main peers & is -81.47% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $48.18
SPWH is -81.90% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.23
Price to sales ratio is -94.40% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.58
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
402.87%
Net income growth rate is -185.12% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
105.78%
Net debt to equity ratio:
94.87%
Debt to assets ratio:
32.05%
Net debt to assets ratio:
28.74%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -55.71% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
94.63
Interest coverage ratio is 282.09% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-33.51%
Annual debt growth is -148% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.369
Statistical significance of correlation:
SPWH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.475
Stock price is -22.44% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.475
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.083
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.177
Kurtosis
22.92
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.625
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SPWH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
130%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
5.37%
Operating profit margin is -17.34% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
130%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.95%
Effective tax rate is 10.65% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
46.77%
Return on equity (ROE) is 3187.68% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
14.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is 52.29% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.37
Current ratio is -27.49% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-6.1
Cash conversion cycle is -109.51% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 40.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.02%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
451.1K
Each employee generates -39% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
49.4K
Each employee generates -80% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
30.3K
Each employee generates -80% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.9K
Each employee generates -107% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
103.8K
Each employee generates -107% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SPWH
MASTERCRAFT BOAT HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MCFT)
KURA SUSHI USA, INC. (XNAS:KRUS)
FOSSIL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:FOSL)
UFP TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:UFPT)
BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (XNAS:BLBD)
DULUTH HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:DLTH)
CARPARTS.COM, INC. (XNAS:PRTS)
CHUY'S HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CHUY)
GOLDEN NUGGET ONLINE GAMING, INC.. (XNAS:GNOG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
1.49B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.00B
485.34M
-
-
405.34M
-
-
405.34M
-
1.72M
27.86M
162.86M
80.00M
100.02M
133.28M
33.26M
100.02M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.78M
Differed Income Tax :
- 56.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.02M
Change in Working Capital :
- 22649.00K
Accounts Receivables:
7.00K
Other Working Capital:
2.96M
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.45M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 4010.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 5615.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
5/1/21
2022
Q1
59.72M
-
59.72M
574.00K
287.08M
15.96M
363.33M
340.77M
1.50M
280.00K
-
-
-
342.55M
-
705.87M
113.05M
36.39M
15.59M
39.20M
76.79M
265.42M
226.22M
-
226.60M
-
492.02M
438.00K
124.86M
-
88.56M
May 1, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.41B
213.86M
705.87M
-
262.61M
202.9M
-
-
- 5615.00K
-
-
- 2269.00K
-
6.09M
3.82M
-
- 5806.00K
59.72M
65.53M
- 4010.00K
- 5615.00K
- 9625.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SPWH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$9.30
$106.10
$112.61
$119.52
$126.85