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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Spirit Realty Capital, Inc. (XNYS:SRC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SRC
Name:
SPIRIT REALTY CAPITAL, INC. (XNYS:SRC)
Sector:
54.88M
Industry:
REIT�Diversified
CEO:
Mr. Jackson Hsieh
Total Employees:
84
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 38.50% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SPIRIT REALTY CAPITAL, INC.(SRC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
40.16
One Month Price Target:
$40.45
Six Month Price Target :
$41.89
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$43.63
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$39.95
Price Upper limit ($) :
$40.38
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$37.6
This week:
$34.43
This month :
$28.71
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.52B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
136.34M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.95%
-35.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$52.05
$46.63
$28.27
$33.69
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$44.87
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.71
$35.44
$36.61
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SRC
Sharpe Ratio:
0.22%
Comparison:
SRC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -62.37% lower than the industry
& is -90.33% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SRC
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.08%
Monthly returns:
0.31%
Yearly returns:
5.46%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -30.90% below industry average
Classification:
SRC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.22
Statistical test of Returns:
SRC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.11%
Weekly Volatility:
6.96%
Monthly Volatility:
13.92%
Yearly Volatility:
48.21%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.46%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -85.26% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.38%
Weekly VaR:
-14.26%
Monthly VaR:
-28.51%
How Much Can the price of
SRC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$30.10
This translates to price declining to:
$6.02
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SRC is a 101.24% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 72.41% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.33% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SRC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.28
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.779
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.101
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.783
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.894
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.081
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.147
Beta is 11.98% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.109
Beta is 15.81% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.082
Alpha is 54.55% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -521% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SRC
Equity cost of capital:
0.120
Equity cost of capital is 11.18% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.29%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.29%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.81%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.81%
WACC is 9.59% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.71
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.28
Annual revenue growth rate is -119.96% below industry average
EPS:
$1.80
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-9.31%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -2443.62% lower than the REIT�Diversified industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.89
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -28.53%
Equity growth rate per share is -263.30% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$19.99
EBITDA per share
$4.11
Valuation Analysis Today of
SRC
P/E Ratio:
24.07
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.3
P/E ratio is -8.47% lower than main peers & is -42.58% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $75.46
SRC is -46.78% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $31.88
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $21.78
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.53
Price to sales ratio is 8.65% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.28
Price to free cash flow: 13.89
Price to free cash flow ratio is 19.00% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-6.29%
Net income growth rate is 91.77% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 37.42%
Dividend yeild: 6.35%
Previous Dividend: $0.64
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.64
Previous Dividend: $2.55
Expected next dividend best case: $0.64
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.63
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.63
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.21%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.64
2021-12-30--$0.64
2021-06-29--$0.63
2022-03-30--$0.64
2021-09-29--$0.64
2021-03-30--$0.63
Dividend growth rate is -98.30% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
63.89%
Net debt to equity ratio:
75.50%
Debt to assets ratio:
34.98%
Net debt to assets ratio:
41.34%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -31.40% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.52
Interest coverage ratio is 308.38% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
10.80%
Annual debt growth is 228% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 12.78%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.64
Statistical significance of correlation:
SRC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.573
Stock price is 11.70% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.573
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.039
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.07
Kurtosis
29.009
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-2.229
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SRC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
387%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
47.30%
Operating profit margin is 155.75% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
387%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.23%
Effective tax rate is -134.25% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
5.37%
Return on equity (ROE) is 58.75% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.94%
Return on assets (ROA) is 82.49% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.08
Current ratio is -96.80% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
6.3
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.76%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
7.6M
Each employee generates -10% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
6.7M
Each employee generates -12% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
2.7M
Each employee generates -32% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
653.4K
Each employee generates -50% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
92.1M
Each employee generates -50% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SRC
IQVIA HOLDINGS INC (XFRA:QTS)
TERRENO REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:TRNO)
MGM GROWTH PROPERTIES LLC (XNYS:MGP)
COUSINS PROPERTIES INCORPORATED (XNYS:CUZ)
THE HOWARD HUGHES CORPORATION (XNYS:HHC)
RAYONIER INC. (XNYS:RYN)
DOUGLAS EMMETT, INC. (XNYS:DEI)
SL GREEN REALTY CORP. (XNYS:SLG)
INNOVATIVE INDUSTRIAL PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:IIPR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�42%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
641.65M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
20.44M
621.21M
-
54.24M
54.24M
-
12.14M
66.38M
-
74.43M
256.65M
559.78M
303.47M
229.23M
229.92M
- 523.00K
229.23M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
69.11M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.03M
Change in Working Capital :
- 43055.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 92.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 7863.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
78.27M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
24.23M
-
24.23M
23.02M
-
9.56M
56.81M
-
225.60M
439.11M
-
-
7.07B
7.73B
-
7.79B
152.10M
519.50M
-
-
-
671.60M
2.73B
127.33M
2.85B
-
3.52B
6.72M
- 2879480.00K
- 5145.0K
6.98B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
464.94M
4.27B
7.79B
-
3.24B
3.2B
-
- 499550.00K
- 499550.00K
- 399128.00K
299.76M
- 6410.00K
- 85783.00K
621.62M
430.06M
-
8.78M
26.58M
17.80M
78.27M
- 23387.00K
54.88M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SRC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$47.82
$51.95
$56.44
$61.31
$66.61