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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Spirit Aerosystems Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:SPR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SPR
Name:
SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:SPR)
Sector:
- 297900.00K
Industry:
Aerospace & Defense
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Gentile
Total Employees:
16,100
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -322.94% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS HOLDINGS, INC.(SPR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AEROSPACE & DEFENSE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
28.8
One Month Price Target:
$29.07
Six Month Price Target :
$30.44
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$32.09
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$28.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$29.03
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$25.91
This week:
$22.33
This month :
$15.87
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.03B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
105.14M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.18%
-24.26%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.23
$36.15
$15.37
$21.45
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$34.17
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.87
$23.41
$24.73
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SPR
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.85%
Comparison:
SPR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -178.79% lower than the industry
& is -137.50% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SPR
Daily returns:
-0.03%
Weekly returns:
-0.16%
Monthly returns:
-0.66%
Yearly returns:
10.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -175.42% below industry average
Classification:
SPR, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.2
Statistical test of Returns:
SPR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.87%
Weekly Volatility:
10.90%
Monthly Volatility:
21.80%
Yearly Volatility:
75.51%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.76%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -63.90% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.04%
Weekly VaR:
-22.46%
Monthly VaR:
-44.91%
How Much Can the price of
SPR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-40%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$17.25
This translates to price declining to:
$4.32
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SPR is a 216.98% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 171.56% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 54.35% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SPR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.70
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.026
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.452
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.164
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.147
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.131
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.239
Beta is 37.20% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.007
Beta is 68.80% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.227
Alpha is -5843.82% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1443% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SPR
Equity cost of capital:
0.148
Equity cost of capital is 47.23% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.42%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.25%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.94%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.94%
WACC is 21.99% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$40.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.92
Annual revenue growth rate is -149.24% below industry average
EPS:
-$4.05
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -90.72%
Equity growth rate per share is 52118.48% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$36.24
EBITDA per share
$1.20
Valuation Analysis Today of
SPR
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.82
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
SPR is -115.13% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $1.47
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $0.15
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.72
Price to sales ratio is -92.47% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.92
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-190.76%
Net income growth rate is -6400.91% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -0.26%
Dividend yeild: 0.14%
Previous Dividend: $0.01
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.01
Previous Dividend: $0.04
Expected next dividend best case: $0.04
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.02
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.02
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -9.17%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/05/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-15--$0.01
2021-12-10--$0.01
2021-06-11--$0.01
2022-03-17--$0.01
2021-09-10--$0.01
2021-03-18--$0.01
Dividend growth rate is -30.62% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
998.27%
Net debt to equity ratio:
711.58%
Debt to assets ratio:
50.87%
Net debt to assets ratio:
36.26%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -5.21% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
0.52
Interest coverage ratio is -93.75% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.37%
Annual debt growth is -95% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.33%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.528
Statistical significance of correlation:
SPR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.541
Stock price is -2.38% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.541
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.051
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.144
Kurtosis
5.124
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.366
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SPR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-3%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-8.88%
Operating profit margin is -98.21% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-3%
Effective Tax Rate:
5.95%
Effective tax rate is -74.95% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-110.56%
Return on equity (ROE) is -1495.88% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-5.63%
Return on assets (ROA) is -231.92% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
1.98
Current ratio is -37.52% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
8.6
Cash conversion cycle is -98.51% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-1.94%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
262.5K
Each employee generates -24% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
7.8K
Each employee generates -79% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 26.2K
Each employee generates -508% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 18.5K
Each employee generates 697% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
241.0K
Each employee generates 697% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 37.37%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -21609.92% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SPR
ATKORE INC (XNYS:ATKR)
FTI CONSULTING, INC. (XNYS:FCN)
VALMONT INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:VMI)
HAYWARD HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:HAYW)
MAXIMUS, INC. (XNYS:MMS)
GATES INDUSTRIAL CORPORATION PLC (XNYS:GTES)
JOHN BEAN TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION (XNYS:JBT)
CLEAN HARBORS, INC. (XNYS:CLH)
ARMSTRONG WORLD INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:AWI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�33%
Hold�33%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.23B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.25B
- 25000.00K
57.40M
-
286.80M
-
-
344.20M
500.00K
241.70M
332.50M
125.70M
- 375500.00K
- 422000.00K
- 445700.00K
- 26500.00K
- 422000.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
85.20M
Differed Income Tax :
- 27200.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
8.20M
Change in Working Capital :
- 212600.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 123300.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 68700.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 71000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 270200.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 27700.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.15B
-
1.15B
1.03B
1.39B
39.20M
3.61B
2.41B
623.60M
208.60M
400.00K
7.90M
628.60M
3.88B
-
7.49B
762.90M
57.50M
-
97.80M
906.70M
1.82B
3.81B
1.13B
5.28B
-
7.11B
1.10M
1.73B
- 41300.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.60B
381.70M
7.49B
-
3.87B
2.7B
-
-
- 27700.00K
- 12600.00K
-
-
- 1100.00K
- 14400.00K
- 28100.00K
- 800.00K
- 326800.00K
1.17B
1.50B
- 270200.00K
- 27700.00K
- 297900.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SPR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$32.25
$10.06
$11.21
$12.49
$13.91