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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:SPB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SPB
Name:
SPECTRUM BRANDS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:SPB)
Sector:
- 285200.00K
Industry:
Household & Personal Products
CEO:
Mr. David Maura
Total Employees:
12,100
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 14.98% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SPECTRUM BRANDS HOLDINGS, INC.(SPB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND HOUSEHOLD & PERSONAL PRODUCTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
61.06
One Month Price Target:
$61.5
Six Month Price Target :
$63.72
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$66.38
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$60.78
Price Upper limit ($) :
$61.4
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$57.32
This week:
$52.71
This month :
$44.35
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.46B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
40.78M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.95%
-29.72%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$78.40
$70.46
$43.72
$51.66
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$67.87
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$66.18
$54.23
$55.94
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SPB
Sharpe Ratio:
1.16%
Comparison:
SPB, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -3.49% lower than the industry
& is -49.12% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SPB
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.22%
Monthly returns:
0.87%
Yearly returns:
9.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 13.25% above industry average
Classification:
SPB, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.57
Statistical test of Returns:
SPB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.00%
Weekly Volatility:
6.71%
Monthly Volatility:
13.42%
Yearly Volatility:
46.49%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.64%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -78.68% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.12%
Weekly VaR:
-13.68%
Monthly VaR:
-27.37%
How Much Can the price of
SPB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-94.80%
This translates to price declining to:
$46.59
This translates to price declining to:
$3.18
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SPB is a 93.15% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 65.47% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 21.45% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SPB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.30
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.814
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.152
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.535
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.796
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.773
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.043
Beta is 24.44% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.835
Beta is 55.39% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
2.49%
Sustainable growth rate is -91.43% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.016
Alpha is -511.00% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -99% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SPB
Equity cost of capital:
0.120
Equity cost of capital is 35.72% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.96%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.02%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.60%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.60%
WACC is 3.42% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$55.63
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.85
Annual revenue growth rate is -190.96% below industry average
EPS:
$2.48
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-31.78%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -160.61% lower than the Household & Personal Products industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.93
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 175.84%
Equity growth rate per share is 1629.61% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$73.31
EBITDA per share
$4.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
SPB
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.09
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $65.58
SPB is -6.89% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $20.35
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.95
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.1
Price to sales ratio is -69.87% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.85
Price to free cash flow: 20.86
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-78.67%
Net income growth rate is -103.02% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 16.48%
Dividend yeild: 2.75%
Previous Dividend: $0.42
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.42
Previous Dividend: $1.68
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.42
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/09/2022
Previous dividend record date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-18--$0.42
2021-11-19--$0.42
2021-05-19--$0.42
2022-02-18--$0.42
2021-08-30--$0.42
2021-02-22--$0.42
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
223.05%
Net debt to equity ratio:
208.66%
Debt to assets ratio:
53.68%
Net debt to assets ratio:
50.22%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -21.79% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.88
Interest coverage ratio is -79.59% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.56%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.11%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.567
Statistical significance of correlation:
SPB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is 2.08% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.012
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.021
Kurtosis
22.04
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.824
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SPB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
52%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-7.72%
Operating profit margin is -4.60% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
52%
Effective Tax Rate:
36.12%
Effective tax rate is 69.89% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.83%
Return on equity (ROE) is -82.22% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.89%
Return on assets (ROA) is -53.60% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.2x
Current Ratio:
2.92
Current ratio is 8.39% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
12.2
Cash conversion cycle is -88.41% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 16.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.33%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
187.5K
Each employee generates -72% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
14.4K
Each employee generates -90% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
8.7K
Each employee generates -90% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 23.6K
Each employee generates -1065% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
202.3K
Each employee generates -1065% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -28.71%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -382.38% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SPB
CHEGG, INC. (XNYS:CHGG)
Nomad Foods Limited (XNYS:NOMD)
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. (XNYS:HLF)
COURSERA, INC. (XNYS:COUR)
NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION & TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC. (XNYS:EDU)
GRAHAM HOLDINGS COMPANY (XNYS:GHC)
UNITED BREWERIES COMPANY, INC (XNYS:CCU)
Natura & Co Holding SA (XNYS:NTCO)
DINGDONG (CAYMAN) LIMITED (XNYS:DDL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�25%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/3/22
Revenue:
2.27B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.59B
683.20M
22.60M
268.60M
715.80M
447.20M
-
738.40M
-
60.70M
93.70M
174.60M
- 175100.00K
105.00M
- 234800.00K
- 84800.00K
105.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
25.40M
Differed Income Tax :
- 27300.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
5.60M
Change in Working Capital :
- 230700.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 52300.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 271100.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 14100.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/2/22
2022
Q1
204.90M
-
204.90M
362.80M
648.40M
1.91B
3.12B
316.70M
866.80M
1.19B
-
-
74.90M
2.45B
-
5.57B
347.50M
12.10M
-
-
708.60M
1.07B
2.99B
92.60M
3.15B
-
4.22B
500.00K
350.40M
- 231300.0K
-
January 2, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
2.36B
1.34B
5.56B
-
3.00B
2.8B
-
- 4900.00K
- 19000.00K
- 3200.00K
-
- 110000.00K
- 17300.00K
440.10M
309.60M
- 2500.00K
17.00M
207.00M
190.00M
- 271100.00K
- 14100.00K
- 285200.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SPB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$47.03
$51.13
$55.59
$60.43
$65.70