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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Spartannash Company (XNAS:SPTN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SPTN
Name:
SPARTANNASH COMPANY (XNAS:SPTN)
Sector:
161.16M
Industry:
Food Distribution
CEO:
Mr. Dennis Eidson
Total Employees:
10,100
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -32.41% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SPARTANNASH COMPANY(SPTN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FOOD DISTRIBUTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
29.62
One Month Price Target:
$29.74
Six Month Price Target :
$30.31
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$31.01
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.51
Price Upper limit ($) :
$29.83
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$27.74
This week:
$25.41
This month :
$21.2
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.10B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
35.75M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.26%
-24.38%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.35
$34.27
$20.89
$24.97
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$32.94
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.07
$26.29
$27.17
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SPTN
Sharpe Ratio:
4.91%
Comparison:
SPTN, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 92.94% higher than the industry
& ratio is 115.44% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SPTN
Daily returns:
0.16%
Weekly returns:
0.82%
Monthly returns:
3.30%
Yearly returns:
25.81%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 53.30% above industry average
Classification:
SPTN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.66
Statistical test of Returns:
SPTN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.18%
Weekly Volatility:
7.10%
Monthly Volatility:
14.21%
Yearly Volatility:
49.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.66%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -79.27% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.36%
Weekly VaR:
-14.22%
Monthly VaR:
-28.44%
How Much Can the price of
SPTN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$22.73
This translates to price declining to:
$4.44
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SPTN is a 100.74% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 71.97% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -18.72% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SPTN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.70
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.419
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.209
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.075
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.958
Beta is -27.25% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.088
Beta is -35.91% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.74%
Sustainable growth rate is 5.39% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.316
Alpha is 108.05% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2014% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SPTN
Equity cost of capital:
0.079
Equity cost of capital is -25.24% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.76%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.79%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.42%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.42%
WACC is -20.29% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$252.80
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.33
Annual revenue growth rate is -56.63% below industry average
EPS:
$2.04
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
134.00%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 250.73% higher than the Food Distribution industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.41
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 45.76%
Equity growth rate per share is 175.28% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$19.48
EBITDA per share
$5.09
Valuation Analysis Today of
SPTN
P/E Ratio:
17.34
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
340.02
P/E ratio is -94.90% lower than main peers & is -48.93% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $69.26
SPTN is -57.23% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $27.11
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.00
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.12
Price to sales ratio is -69.89% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.33
Price to free cash flow: 5.48
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-249.90%
Net income growth rate is 163.96% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 2.77%
Previous Dividend: $0.21
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.21
Previous Dividend: $0.82
Expected next dividend best case: $0.22
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.20
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.02%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.21
2021-12-09--$0.20
2021-06-14--$0.20
2022-03-16--$0.21
2021-09-14--$0.20
2021-03-12--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is -93.53% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
87.57%
Net debt to equity ratio:
92.20%
Debt to assets ratio:
30.76%
Net debt to assets ratio:
32.39%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.61% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.54
Interest coverage ratio is 371.07% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-32.87%
Annual debt growth is 198% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.123
Statistical significance of correlation:
SPTN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.422
Stock price is -70.75% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.422
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.026
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.047
Kurtosis
16.63
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.611
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SPTN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
63%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.22%
Operating profit margin is 117.37% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
63%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.17%
Effective tax rate is 11.46% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.24%
Return on equity (ROE) is -35.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.25%
Return on assets (ROA) is 77.88% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.56
Current ratio is -3.49% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-0.7
Cash conversion cycle is -102.92% below industry average
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
894.7K
Each employee generates -54% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
18.0K
Each employee generates -66% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
7.3K
Each employee generates -51% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
16.0K
Each employee generates -117% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
122.0K
Each employee generates -117% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SPTN
Vasta Platform Ltd (XNAS:VSTA)
CHS Inc. (XNAS:CHSCP)
ABCD
PERDOCEO EDUCATION CORPORATION (XNAS:PRDO)
CRESUD INC. (XNAS:CRESY)
Village Farms International, Inc. (XNAS:VFF)
AMERICAN PUBLIC EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:APEI)
WHOLE EARTH BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:FREE)
CHS Inc. (XNAS:CHSCM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/23/22
Revenue:
9.04B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.60B
1.44B
-
289.05M
1.32B
-
252.00K
1.32B
-
13.45M
71.64M
182.05M
110.15M
73.52M
96.97M
23.44M
73.52M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 51274.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
138.68M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
161.16M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/23/22
2022
Q1
16.33M
-
16.33M
395.47M
556.32M
63.77M
1.03B
844.94M
181.04M
109.40M
-
-
96.96M
1.23B
-
2.26B
478.96M
53.18M
-
-
129.48M
661.63M
696.43M
36.48M
807.30M
-
1.47B
494.57M
302.17M
- 1432.0K
-
January 1, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
8.92B
795.30M
2.26B
-
749.61M
733.3M
-
- 47978.00K
- 47978.00K
-
-
-
-
- 122414.00K
- 122414.00K
-
- 9237.00K
10.67M
19.90M
161.16M
-
161.16M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SPTN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$31.17
$32.63
$34.15
$35.75
$37.43