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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sp Plus Corporation (XNAS:SP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SP
Name:
SP PLUS CORPORATION (XNAS:SP)
Sector:
24.10M
Industry:
Specialty Business Services
CEO:
Mr. G. Marc Baumann
Total Employees:
10,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -188.46% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SP PLUS CORPORATION(SP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY BUSINESS SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.21
One Month Price Target:
$32.47
Six Month Price Target :
$33.74
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$35.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$32.03
Price Upper limit ($) :
$32.4
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$30.01
This week:
$27.29
This month :
$22.37
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
746.01M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
23.28M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.76%
-27.93%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.43
$37.77
$21.99
$26.65
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$36.26
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.27
$28.15
$29.15
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SP
Sharpe Ratio:
0.08%
Comparison:
SP, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -86.30% lower than the industry
& is -96.46% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SP
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.23%
Yearly returns:
5.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -46.57% below industry average
Classification:
SP, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.58
Statistical test of Returns:
SP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.33%
Weekly Volatility:
7.45%
Monthly Volatility:
14.90%
Yearly Volatility:
51.62%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.85%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -44.35% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.83%
Weekly VaR:
-15.28%
Monthly VaR:
-30.55%
How Much Can the price of
SP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.55
This translates to price declining to:
$4.83
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SP is a 115.65% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 84.75% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 26.68% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.42
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.82
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.16
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.559
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.563
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.902
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.362
Beta is 4.11% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.172
Beta is 20.98% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.95%
Sustainable growth rate is -66.07% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.101
Alpha is 68.33% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -643% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SP
Equity cost of capital:
0.129
Equity cost of capital is 15.07% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.08%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.68%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.12%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.12%
WACC is -6.86% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$55.00
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.19
Annual revenue growth rate is -461.20% below industry average
EPS:
$1.87
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-12.51%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -274.23% lower than the Specialty Business Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.70
-
-
Debt per share
$20.36
EBITDA per share
$4.04
Valuation Analysis Today of
SP
P/E Ratio:
14.81
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.14
P/E ratio is -29.95% lower than main peers & is -46.96% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $52.21
SP is -38.30% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.59
Price to sales ratio is -83.27% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.19
Price to free cash flow: 8.71
Price to free cash flow ratio is -43.32% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-37.01%
Net income growth rate is -100.01% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
201.27%
Net debt to equity ratio:
229.04%
Debt to assets ratio:
43.52%
Net debt to assets ratio:
49.53%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -29.98% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.23
Interest coverage ratio is 68.27% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-14.24%
Annual debt growth is -712% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 20.84%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.407
Statistical significance of correlation:
SP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.646
Stock price is -36.98% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.646
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.042
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.082
Kurtosis
10.839
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.728
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
61%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
5.90%
Operating profit margin is -47.27% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
61%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.75%
Effective tax rate is 35.99% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
17.03%
Return on equity (ROE) is -48.71% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.68%
Return on assets (ROA) is -38.03% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
0.54
Current ratio is -72.96% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
6.5
Cash conversion cycle is -75.03% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.49%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
118.5K
Each employee generates -57% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
8.7K
Each employee generates -90% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
3.7K
Each employee generates -93% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
2.2K
Each employee generates -84% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
84.9K
Each employee generates -84% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SP
PYROGENESIS CANADA INC. (XNAS:PYR)
REKOR SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:REKR)
HERITAGE-CRYSTAL CLEAN, INC. (XNAS:HCCI)
PAE INCORPORATED (XNAS:PAE)
HEIDRICK & STRUGGLES INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:HSII)
GRID DYNAMICS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:GDYN)
HOLLYSYS AUTOMATION TECHNOLOGIES LTD. (XNAS:HOLI)
VEAC
UNIVERSAL LOGISTICS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ULH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.28B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.09B
192.90M
-
91.70M
91.70M
-
25.60M
117.30M
400.00K
15.10M
25.60M
94.10M
75.60M
40.10M
56.00M
13.30M
40.10M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.80M
Differed Income Tax :
1.20M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.80M
Change in Working Capital :
4.70M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
600.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
26.40M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2300.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
23.40M
-
23.40M
136.00M
-
13.30M
172.70M
243.20M
526.70M
51.60M
-
49.30M
45.60M
916.40M
-
1.09B
118.50M
88.80M
-
-
111.90M
319.20M
474.00M
60.70M
534.70M
-
853.90M
-
39.10M
- 2300.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.20B
235.50M
1.09B
-
562.80M
539.4M
-
100.00K
- 2200.00K
- 124800.00K
-
-
-
108.20M
- 16600.00K
100.00K
7.70M
23.40M
15.70M
26.40M
- 2300.00K
24.10M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$36.75
$40.25
$44.09
$48.29
$52.89