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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Southstate Corporation (XNAS:SSB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SSB
Name:
SOUTHSTATE CORPORATION (XNAS:SSB)
Sector:
167.21M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Robert Hill
Total Employees:
4,929
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -1122.03% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SOUTHSTATE CORPORATION(SSB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
77.94
One Month Price Target:
$78.29
Six Month Price Target :
$80.07
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$82.19
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$77.57
Price Upper limit ($) :
$78.37
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$73.11
This week:
$67.14
This month :
$56.34
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.85B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
75.67M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.63%
-12.95%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$100.36
$90.11
$55.52
$65.77
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$86.77
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$84.58
$69.08
$71.30
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SSB
Sharpe Ratio:
0.86%
Comparison:
SSB, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -29.62% lower than the industry
& is -62.07% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SSB
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.18%
Monthly returns:
0.70%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -22.83% below industry average
Classification:
SSB, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.27
Statistical test of Returns:
SSB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.03%
Weekly Volatility:
6.79%
Monthly Volatility:
13.57%
Yearly Volatility:
47.01%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.63%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -79.18% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.20%
Weekly VaR:
-13.86%
Monthly VaR:
-27.71%
How Much Can the price of
SSB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$59.15
This translates to price declining to:
$11.69
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SSB is a 95.60% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 67.57% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.22% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SSB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.81
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.678
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.958
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.765
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.486
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.781
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.07
Beta is -24.08% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -15.71% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.14%
Sustainable growth rate is -21.80% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.003
Alpha is -125.35% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -19% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SSB
Equity cost of capital:
0.087
Equity cost of capital is -10.63% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.21%
Before-tax cost of debt:
10.88%
After-tax cost of debt:
8.60%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
8.60%
WACC is -24.16% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$18.19
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.14
Annual revenue growth rate is 39.56% above the industry average
EPS:
$6.04
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
7.51%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -37.54% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.31
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 69.72%
Equity growth rate per share is 80.05% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$5.36
EBITDA per share
$8.61
Valuation Analysis Today of
SSB
P/E Ratio:
12.53
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.91
P/E ratio is -9.89% lower than main peers & is 1.01% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $74.95
SSB is 3.99% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $39.26
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $24.43
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.28
Price to sales ratio is 0.16% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.14
Price to free cash flow: 14.67
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
77.37%
Net income growth rate is 40.48% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.91%
Dividend yeild: 2.51%
Previous Dividend: $0.49
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.49
Previous Dividend: $1.96
Expected next dividend best case: $0.50
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.48
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.48
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.64%
Expected next dividend payment date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-12--$0.49
2021-11-10--$0.49
2021-05-13--$0.47
2022-02-10--$0.49
2021-08-11--$0.49
2021-02-11--$0.47
Dividend growth rate is -97.28% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
7.84%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-4.11%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.88%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.46%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.47% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.76
Interest coverage ratio is 1681.30% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-13.90%
Annual debt growth is -4489% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.433
Statistical significance of correlation:
SSB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -13.53% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.025
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.045
Kurtosis
4.117
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.508
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SSB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
21.11%
Effective tax rate is -2.03% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.29%
Return on equity (ROE) is -30.51% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.93%
Return on assets (ROA) is -59.72% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 25.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.98%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
279.3K
Each employee generates -26% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
132.2K
Each employee generates -41% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
87.0K
Each employee generates -39% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
33.9K
Each employee generates -59% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.4M
Each employee generates -59% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SSB
BOK FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:BOKF)
SLM CORPORATION (XNAS:SLM)
NAVIENT CORPORATION (XNAS:JSM)
PEOPLE'S UNITED FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:PBCTP)
PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:PNFP)
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:VLY)
GLACIER BANCORP, INC. (XNYS:GBCI)
ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED (XNAS:ESGR)
FIRST FINANCIAL BANKSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FFIN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.38B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
665.45M
673.43M
7.98M
-
-
1.08B
44.14M
63.84M
651.68M
-
428.92M
543.70M
114.78M
428.92M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
16.18M
Differed Income Tax :
49.07M
Stock Based Compensation :
8.49M
Change in Working Capital :
- 50924.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 4630.00K
Other Working Capital:
7.40M
Other Non-Cash Items:
49.05M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
172.19M
Investments in PP&E:
- 4983.00K
Net Acquisitions:
250.12M
Purchases of Investments:
- 2049910.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
618.19M
5.92B
6.54B
-
-
-
-
568.33M
1.92B
223.70M
9.01B
-
-
11.72B
57.92B
46.20B
-
-
-
-
-
-
405.55M
-
405.55M
41.43B
41.03B
189.40M
1.06B
- 293956.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
5.17B
46.20B
14.93B
405.55M
- 212633.0K
626.45M
- 314582.00K
- 1492912.00K
-
-
- 88815.00K
- 33922.00K
632.92M
510.18M
-
- 810541.00K
6.03B
6.84B
172.19M
- 4983.00K
167.21M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SSB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$94.29
$99.44
$104.87
$110.59
$116.63