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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Southside Bancshares, Inc. (XNAS:SBSI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SBSI
Name:
SOUTHSIDE BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:SBSI)
Sector:
82.57M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Lee Gibson
Total Employees:
809
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -286.83% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SOUTHSIDE BANCSHARES, INC.(SBSI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
37.62
One Month Price Target:
$37.74
Six Month Price Target :
$38.33
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$39.04
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$37.48
Price Upper limit ($) :
$37.78
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$35.83
This week:
$33.61
This month :
$29.6
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.21B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
32.10M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.78%
-9.99%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$45.95
$42.13
$29.29
$33.11
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$40.89
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.08
$34.34
$35.16
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SBSI
Sharpe Ratio:
1.08%
Comparison:
SBSI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -12.23% lower than the industry
& is -52.69% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SBSI
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.17%
Monthly returns:
0.68%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -25.07% below industry average
Classification:
SBSI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.47
Statistical test of Returns:
SBSI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.34%
Weekly Volatility:
5.23%
Monthly Volatility:
10.46%
Yearly Volatility:
36.23%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.45%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -80.72% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.77%
Weekly VaR:
-10.66%
Monthly VaR:
-21.33%
How Much Can the price of
SBSI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-73.89%
This translates to price declining to:
$30.67
This translates to price declining to:
$9.82
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SBSI is a 50.54% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 28.97% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -18.13% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SBSI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.56
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.555
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.785
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.47
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.448
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.715
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.902
Beta is -37.54% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -41.53% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.73%
Sustainable growth rate is -15.30% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.012
Alpha is 0.57% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 74% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SBSI
Equity cost of capital:
0.070
Equity cost of capital is -28.12% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.85%
Before-tax cost of debt:
13.48%
After-tax cost of debt:
10.65%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
10.65%
WACC is -38.19% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.39
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.54
Annual revenue growth rate is -27.51% below industry average
EPS:
$3.20
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
16.23%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 34.99% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.19
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 14.84%
Equity growth rate per share is -61.66% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$5.58
EBITDA per share
$4.85
Valuation Analysis Today of
SBSI
P/E Ratio:
11.27
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.06
P/E ratio is 1.84% higher than main peers & is -9.20% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $39.71
SBSI is -5.26% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $44.53
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $24.26
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.09
Price to sales ratio is 18.96% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.54
Price to free cash flow: 7.25
Price to free cash flow ratio is -63.25% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
65.46%
Net income growth rate is 18.86% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.55%
Dividend yeild: 3.72%
Previous Dividend: $0.34
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.34
Previous Dividend: $1.40
Expected next dividend best case: $0.36
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.32
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.33
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.17%
Expected next dividend payment date: 31/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/03/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-18--$0.34
2021-11-23--$0.39
2021-05-19--$0.33
2022-02-16--$0.34
2021-08-18--$0.33
2021-02-17--$0.32
Dividend growth rate is -95.03% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
22.84%
Net debt to equity ratio:
2.11%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.52%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.23%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.49% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.45
Interest coverage ratio is 677.70% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-51.97%
Annual debt growth is -16510% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 71.85%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.498
Statistical significance of correlation:
SBSI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -0.56% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.033
Kurtosis
5.76
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.369
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SBSI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
13.17%
Effective tax rate is -38.88% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.30%
Return on equity (ROE) is 11.49% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.47%
Return on assets (ROA) is -36.42% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
120.36
Current ratio is 100.81% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.79%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
293.4K
Each employee generates -23% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
192.3K
Each employee generates -15% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
128.9K
Each employee generates -9% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
102.1K
Each employee generates 23% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.6M
Each employee generates 23% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SBSI
TRICO BANCSHARES (XNAS:TCBK)
THE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:TBBK)
FIRST BUSEY CORPORATION (XNAS:BUSE)
ENCORE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ECPG)
BROOKLINE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:BRKL)
OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:OCFC)
DIME COMMUNITY BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:DCOM)
FIRST BANCORP (XNAS:FBNC)
SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SAFT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
237.39M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
89.85M
92.51M
2.67M
-
-
216.30M
24.14M
11.30M
155.57M
-
104.31M
120.13M
15.82M
104.31M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.77M
Differed Income Tax :
285.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
819.00K
Change in Working Capital :
49.52M
Accounts Receivables:
10.78M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
6.99M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
85.38M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2806.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 126240.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
162.56M
2.07B
2.23B
28.37M
-
-
-
157.63M
201.12M
6.27M
2.55B
-
-
2.92B
10.04B
7.12B
-
-
-
-
-
-
179.09M
-
179.09M
6.51B
6.33B
47.47M
193.74M
- 80271.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
784.24M
7.12B
4.62B
179.09M
16.5M
171.44M
- 144650.00K
- 102259.00K
- 457167.00K
322.00K
- 2228.00K
- 11003.00K
472.31M
2.24M
-
- 14646.00K
187.11M
201.75M
85.38M
- 2806.00K
82.57M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SBSI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$45.16
$46.87
$48.65
$50.49
$52.40