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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Southern First Bancshares, Inc. (XNAS:SFST) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SFST
Name:
SOUTHERN FIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:SFST)
Sector:
2.00M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. R. Arthur Seaver
Total Employees:
278
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SOUTHERN FIRST BANCSHARES, INC.(SFST) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
42.9
One Month Price Target:
$43.11
Six Month Price Target :
$44.17
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$45.43
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$42.68
Price Upper limit ($) :
$43.16
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$40.04
This week:
$36.5
This month :
$30.1
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
342.84M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
7.99M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.%
-38.14%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$56.18
$50.09
$29.62
$35.71
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$48.11
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.81
$37.67
$38.99
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SFST
Sharpe Ratio:
1.40%
Comparison:
SFST, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 14.23% higher than the industry
& is -38.44% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SFST
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.27%
Monthly returns:
1.10%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 20.56% above industry average
Classification:
SFST, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.74
Statistical test of Returns:
SFST has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.28%
Weekly Volatility:
7.32%
Monthly Volatility:
14.65%
Yearly Volatility:
50.74%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.56%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.99% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.67%
Weekly VaR:
-14.92%
Monthly VaR:
-29.84%
How Much Can the price of
SFST
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$31.85
This translates to price declining to:
$6.44
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SFST is a 110.60% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 80.42% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 14.66% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SFST
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.88
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.637
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.901
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.799
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.553
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.031
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.641
Beta is -46.45% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -8.79% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
18.06%
Sustainable growth rate is 97.80% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.040
Alpha is 243.40% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 254% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SFST
Equity cost of capital:
0.092
Equity cost of capital is -5.95% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.34%
Before-tax cost of debt:
14.38%
After-tax cost of debt:
11.36%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
11.36%
WACC is -19.96% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.04
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.23
Annual revenue growth rate is -5.26% below industry average
EPS:
$5.52
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
16.50%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 37.23% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$4.52
EBITDA per share
$8.09
Valuation Analysis Today of
SFST
P/E Ratio:
8.37
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
47.92
P/E ratio is -82.53% lower than main peers & is -32.54% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $68.50
SFST is -37.37% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.56
Price to sales ratio is -16.68% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.23
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -62.46% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
96.46%
Net income growth rate is 75.15% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
12.97%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-6.46%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.18%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.59%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.29% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.44
Interest coverage ratio is 1401.20% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-40.81%
Annual debt growth is -12985% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.429
Statistical significance of correlation:
SFST has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -14.32% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.024
Kurtosis
32.659
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.434
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SFST
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
23.32%
Effective tax rate is 8.21% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.91%
Return on equity (ROE) is 33.37% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.44%
Return on assets (ROA) is -37.42% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.11%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
346.1K
Each employee generates -9% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
232.5K
Each employee generates 3% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
159.4K
Each employee generates 13% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
7.2K
Each employee generates -91% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -91% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SFST
Cartesian Growth Corp (XNAS:GLBL)
Silver Crest Acquisition Corporation (XNAS:SLCR)
Swvl Holdings Corp (XNAS:SWVL)
QELL
MetroCity Bankshares, Inc. (XNAS:MCBS)
KURI
Colicity Inc (XNAS:COLI)
CORE SCIENTIFIC, INC. (XNAS:CORZ)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
96.21M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
36.56M
37.51M
948.00K
-
-
94.82M
5.20M
1.65M
64.64M
-
44.32M
57.79M
13.47M
44.32M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
583.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
492.00K
Change in Working Capital :
1.81M
Accounts Receivables:
- 3.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 207.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2984.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
7.87M
Investments in PP&E:
- 5869.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 12359.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
54.12M
106.98M
161.10M
7.63M
-
-
-
95.13M
-
-
109.83M
-
-
-
3.07B
3.07B
-
-
-
-
-
-
36.13M
-
36.13M
2.83B
2.79B
80.00K
170.98M
- 6393.0K
113.86M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
278.52M
3.07B
216.80M
36.13M
- 17990.0K
18.23M
- 170787.00K
- 170787.00K
-
-
-
-
144.93M
144.93M
-
- 17993.00K
149.22M
167.21M
7.87M
- 5869.00K
2.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SFST
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$45.66
$125.91
$133.34
$141.22
$149.56